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Feb 21-22 Snow/Sleet Storm Obs/Nowcasting/Weenie/Panic/Hallucinations


Ji

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What about Rt 32? It was perfectly clear in Anne Arundel county.

Crosses SHA Districts. AA is in District 5. Howard District 7.

I think the decision rests with the District Engineer (and his staff)

Uh, here it shows it: http://www.marylandr...aspx?PageId=839

edit to add: since it has come up; I'm gonna *try* to post an image below. Good chance to see if I can do it. (Wish me luck )

post-2176-0-90314000-1298380195.gif

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I noticed some of the models yesterday had the best combo of mid level RH to the north of the city. I think those euro charts showed that, but I had to delete those. Part of the reason I was nervous for DC, and I think Wes may have felt that way too. It was still a bust for me as I thought 2-4 for DCA and IAD.

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3 inches at my place north of Greensboro in Caroline county. I know a lot of folks around DC and Balt have been in the snow hole this winter, but I am actually above my seasonal average here by a half inch after this storm. 19" so far. Wasn't expecting much with all the predictions of dry and warm for the winter. In Easton where I work, looks like less than an inch here.

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Maybe a half inch here if I'm generous. A total forecast fiasco. The 18Z nAM yesterday was telling us something. I didn't change from sleet to snow until around 3:00 AM. Lighter and a more tenacious warm layer. My initial guess two days ago was better than my forecast yesterday. I helped drag the CWG forecast down as Jason had a better forecast unitl he talked to me. Pretty discouraging.

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Maybe a half inch here if I'm generous. A total forecast fiasco. The 18Z nAM yesterday was telling us something. I didn't change from sleet to snow until around 3:00 AM. Lighter and a more tenacious warm layer. My initial guess two days ago was better than my forecast yesterday. I helped drag the CWG forecast down as Jason had a better forecast unitl he talked to me. Pretty discouraging.

I had a win/loss with the changes to my forecast... the expanded 4-8" over northern MD helped, by my southern/easter cut-off estimates would have been better.

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Maybe a half inch here if I'm generous. A total forecast fiasco. The 18Z nAM yesterday was telling us something. I didn't change from sleet to snow until around 3:00 AM. Lighter and a more tenacious warm layer. My initial guess two days ago was better than my forecast yesterday. I helped drag the CWG forecast down as Jason had a better forecast unitl he talked to me. Pretty discouraging.

Don't feel bad...many busted. History shows this area does not recieve accumulating snow that come from a Mid-West Low sliding South. March 1999 would be the exception to the rule.

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Maybe a half inch here if I'm generous. A total forecast fiasco. The 18Z nAM yesterday was telling us something. I didn't change from sleet to snow until around 3:00 AM. Lighter and a more tenacious warm layer. My initial guess two days ago was better than my forecast yesterday. I helped drag the CWG forecast down as Jason had a better forecast unitl he talked to me. Pretty discouraging.

I didn't really get a chance to look hard at what happened last night, but was it that stubborn warm layer? It also looked liked the best lift and RH was to the north.

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About 2 inches of compacted trash out here. What a horrid bust after 5-7 forecast. Bring on the spring so I can get the stench of this awful winter out of my head.

About 1.5 here. Mostly sleet, some snow on top. Pretty disappointing considering that about 35 miles north looks like had about 5 inches or more. The traffic cams out of southern Pa are just.....well......you know.

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Don't feel bad...many busted. History shows this area does not recieve accumulating snow that come from a Mid-West Low sliding South. March 1999 would be the exception to the rule.

Generally, altho maybe that should be amended to differentiate between DC and Baltimore proper. Really sharp differences in how our region experienced this system. I went over to snow early (around 8:00 pm) and it stayed snow until it shut off aruond 4:00 am. Not great rates over that time, but enough for five inches.

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Looks like I-70 was the real dividing line here. I'm seeing plenty of 5-7" reports coming in from I-70 and N/NE. Here in Bmore city, I'd say there's 3.5 - 4 on the ground. Drive much further south of Rte 50 and hardly anything.

Even within Baltimore City, a few miles makes a difference. More up toward where I am near Parkville than downtown and the areas to the south of downtown.

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Maybe a half inch here if I'm generous. A total forecast fiasco. The 18Z nAM yesterday was telling us something. I didn't change from sleet to snow until around 3:00 AM. Lighter and a more tenacious warm layer. My initial guess two days ago was better than my forecast yesterday. I helped drag the CWG forecast down as Jason had a better forecast unitl he talked to me. Pretty discouraging.

It's not your fault... Weather is a horrid profession. ;)

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I didn't really get a chance to look hard at what happened last night, but was it that stubborn warm layer? It also looked liked the best lift and RH was to the north.

I think they were linked. The warm layer lasted longer partly because the stronger uvv and heavier precip stayed north. You shift it south and the layer cools some and the melting of the precip falling through the layer does the rest but we ended up almost dry slotting and instead of getting .23 or so after 06Z probalby got closer to .10". The GFS was total bust as was the 12Z NAM. The 18Z was much better. BY 10:30 I wrote Jason and e-mail. It was pretty obvious we were going to bust. That's the second bad call by me this year.

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I think they were linked. The warm layer lasted longer partly because the stronger uvv and heavier precip stayed north. You shift it south and the layer cools some and the melting of the precip falling through the layer does the rest but we ended up almost dry slotting and instead of getting .23 or so after 06Z probalby got closer to .10". The GFS was total bust as was the 12Z NAM. The 18Z was much better. BY 10:30 I wrote Jason and e-mail. It was pretty obvious we were going to bust. That's the second bad call by me this year.

fishing baby! time to go fishing and get ready for summer

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