Ji Posted February 21, 2011 Author Share Posted February 21, 2011 Drizzle in the burg 36/33 lol..we may not make it out of the 30's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Light rain in Gaithersburg... looks like a couple of hundredths fell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar of Herndon Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Light drizzle 39/32 I think 12z GFS is too warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 lol..we may not make it out of the 30's I wouldnt be surprised with this north wind since this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 My Sat forecast for 60s today was lol. I didnt really believe it but eh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 21, 2011 Author Share Posted February 21, 2011 I wouldnt be surprised with this north wind since this morning. my first guess on the facebook page on Saturday was 3-6. would be funny if that verified lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 21, 2011 Author Share Posted February 21, 2011 My Sat forecast for 60s today was lol. I didnt really believe it but eh. why would you have forecasted 60 lol. Euro never had us going above 9C the past 3-4 runs on Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 why would you have forecasted 60 lol. Euro never had us going above 9C the past 3-4 runs on Monday i dunno.. it did seem rather odd it would happen, but the 0z gfs MOS Fri night showed 67 at DCA today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 my first guess on the facebook page on Saturday was 3-6. would be funny if that verified lol I remember that, if so nice work pal. I only went 1-3" LOL. Hope you verify, would be nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 21, 2011 Author Share Posted February 21, 2011 i dunno.. it did seem rather odd it would happen, but the 0z gfs MOS Fri night showed 67 at DCA today. if it hit 67 today, my forecast for DC/N Va snow would be 0-T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lester Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 BWI has dropped to 39!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 if it hit 67 today, my forecast for DC/N Va snow would be 0-T yeah perhaps tho the cold push looked cold either way so im not sure it would have mattered that much. clearly it's better to be 20+ degrees lower during the day tho to set things up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 21, 2011 Author Share Posted February 21, 2011 is there some kind of calculation simulation that shows how many snowflakes would fall from a snowstorm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 is there some kind of calculation simulation that shows how many snowflakes would fall from a snowstorm? You could probably do a very rough back-of-the-envelope calculation: Say this storm is affecting 20,000 km^2...snow falls at...oh...10 snowflakes per m^2 per second. Storm lasts 6 hours. That's about 4*10^15 snowflakes...that's 4 quadrillion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 21, 2011 Author Share Posted February 21, 2011 You could probably do a very rough back-of-the-envelope calculation: Say this storm is affecting 20,000 km^2...snow falls at...oh...10 snowflakes per m^2 per second. Storm lasts 6 hours. That's about 4*10^15 snowflakes...that's 4 quadrillion wow...lol.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 You could probably do a very rough back-of-the-envelope calculation: Say this storm is affecting 20,000 km^2...snow falls at...oh...10 snowflakes per m^2 per second. Storm lasts 6 hours. That's about 4*10^15 snowflakes...that's 4 quadrillion Snowflake calculator = national debt calculator? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 BWI has dropped to 39!! It's been hovering between 39 and 41 at BWI all morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 I'm back in McLean for this one. Thinking 2-4" or so. Should be a nice light-moderate event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lester Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 <br /><br /><br /> It's been hovering between 39 and 41 at BWI all morning.<br /> <br /><br /><br />Far cry from the 60s we were expecting though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 <br /><br /><br /> Far cry from the 60s we were expecting though I was never expecting 60s today, maybe low 50s But even that is looking like a stretch right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 NWS for AA County: "Temperatures will be falling into the mid 30s by early afternoon." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 NWS for AA County: "Temperatures will be falling into the mid 30s by early afternoon." Point and Click only has 1-2 inches for us in Odenton Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 ... Winter Weather Advisory in effect from 9 PM this evening to 7 am EST Tuesday... The National Weather Service in Baltimore MD/Washington has issued a Winter Weather Advisory for snow and sleet... which is in effect from 9 PM this evening to 7 am EST Tuesday. * Precipitation type... wintry mix changing over to snow. * Accumulations... 2 to 5 inches of snow. * Timing... wintry mix will begin late this evening... then change over to all snow after midnight... and continue rest of the overnight. * Temperatures... temperatures in the mid 30s this evening... dropping to the upper 20s by Tuesday morning. * Winds... north-northeast 10 to 15 mph. Gusts to 20 mph. Precautionary/preparedness actions... A Winter Weather Advisory means that periods of snow... sleet... or freezing rain will cause travel difficulties. Be prepared for slippery roads and limited visibilities... and use caution while driving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Herb@MAWS Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 12 noon 2/21 38.7, NW 3-7, DP 35, Overcast, Precip total= 0.04" 9:00am 2/21 38.2, Wind N-9 peak gust 14, DP31. 8:30am 2/21 38.3 Overnite Sun-Mon low 36.2, precip overnite 0.02" Real-time temps, winds etc HERE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Point and Click only has 1-2 inches for us in Odenton 1-3 per my point and click. I am thinking 2-4 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Point and Click only has 1-2 inches for us in Odenton We may point, but it doesn't seem to ever click for LWX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 So if we get some snowcover does anyone think it is possible to drop into the single digits Tuesday or Wednesday evening for lows? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 A friend's (ex-friends?) post on FB: I'm banking on the fact that meteorologists are idiots and will be totally wrong and we'll get rain only. Any other met want to punch someone when they hear crap like this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Our storm 1004 mb in lower Indiana ATH - 500mb flow is due east from there. Best surface frontogeneis just below the M/D line http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis...&parm=pmsl# HP over Lakes Erie and Ontario should keep everything from coming any further north. http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sfc_con....inv=0&t=cur Surface stream shows the likely path to the east http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sfc_con....inv=0&t=cur Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Our storm 1004 mb in lower Indiana ATH - 500mb flow is due east from there. Best surface frontogeneis just below the M/D line http://www.spc.noaa....s...&parm=pmsl# HP over Lakes Erie and Ontario should keep everything from coming any further north. http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sfc_con....inv=0&t=cur Surface stream shows the likely path to the east http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sfc_con....inv=0&t=cur This should be in the obs thread...but FYI...surface winds are not steering winds. IOW, mid-level winds (700-300mb) direct the track of storms, not surface winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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