thenewbigmack Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Hey guys... I'm a poster on WesternWX but I figured I'd post this here as well to get some input. I know it's still early to make a March forecast... but I wanted to give this a go and see how it turns out. I've been watching the 12z and 0z analog maps for the past 3 days, and collecting all the dates from each. If you look at today's 12z, it shows that the date it's "centered" around is 2/28, meaning the listed analogs would potentially be the pattern starting on the 28th. This is why I'm writing this up now, because tomorrow will be the first day of March for the potential analog dates. Out of the 6 total maps I recorded, here are the following dates I will be using: 19900213 - appeared in 6/6 maps 19630313 - appeared in 6/6 19670309 - appeared in 5/6 19590211 - appeared in 5/6 19850303 - appeared in 5/6 19660214 - appeared in 4/6 19640308 - appeared in 4/6 The 2 dates which appeared in all of the maps I weighted heavier in the composite maps due to their consistency. Taking the pattern and running it forward, here are the results of what the March pattern could potentially hold: March 1-7: The west starts out under a trough with very low heights covering the western 2/3 of the US. This blast in the beginning of the month looks to be the most impressive and has the most potential compared to the rest of the month (For the PNW). Towards the last couple days, the trough lifts out of the west. A SE ridge is very evident during the first 5-7 days. This is centered around March 4th: March 8-14: The warm anomalies from the east quickly spread to the west warming us up quite quickly. This looks to be the time frame that the east coast may see some troughing, although it also looks to be short lived. After a few days, the tough lifts from the East and the whole US undergoes a blowtorch pattern. This is centered around March 13th: March 15-21: The colder anomalies from up in Alaska begin to spread southward over the PNW. The remainder of this time frame contains troughing over the PNW, with warm anomalies over the eastern 2/3 of the US. This is centered around March 20th: March 22-31: The PNW troughing continues, although possibly a having a bit stronger of an impact than before. The last few days feature a warm up with higher height anomalies taking over. This is centered around March 24th: This is an honest forecast based strictly on the recent analogs. I'm not posting this to try and cause problems, and although this is my first thread, I hope you guys don't think I'm in the wrong here. Hopefully we can get a good discussion going on the different potentials throughout the month. Thanks for reading guys... Bryant Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
River Card Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Hey guys... I'm a poster on WesternWX but I figured I'd post this here as well to get some input. I know it's still early to make a March forecast... but I wanted to give this a go and see how it turns out. I've been watching the 12z and 0z analog maps for the past 3 days, and collecting all the dates from each. If you look at today's 12z, it shows that the date it's "centered" around is 2/28, meaning the listed analogs would potentially be the pattern starting on the 28th. This is why I'm writing this up now, because tomorrow will be the first day of March for the potential analog dates. Out of the 6 total maps I recorded, here are the following dates I will be using: 19900213 - appeared in 6/6 maps 19630313 - appeared in 6/6 19670309 - appeared in 5/6 19590211 - appeared in 5/6 19850303 - appeared in 5/6 19660214 - appeared in 4/6 19640308 - appeared in 4/6 The 2 dates which appeared in all of the maps I weighted heavier in the composite maps due to their consistency. Taking the pattern and running it forward, here are the results of what the March pattern could potentially hold: March 1-7: The west starts out under a trough with very low heights covering the western 2/3 of the US. This blast in the beginning of the month looks to be the most impressive and has the most potential compared to the rest of the month (For the PNW). Towards the last couple days, the trough lifts out of the west. A SE ridge is very evident during the first 5-7 days. This is centered around March 4th: March 8-14: The warm anomalies from the east quickly spread to the west warming us up quite quickly. This looks to be the time frame that the east coast may see some troughing, although it also looks to be short lived. After a few days, the tough lifts from the East and the whole US undergoes a blowtorch pattern. This is centered around March 13th: March 15-21: The colder anomalies from up in Alaska begin to spread southward over the PNW. The remainder of this time frame contains troughing over the PNW, with warm anomalies over the eastern 2/3 of the US. This is centered around March 20th: March 22-31: The PNW troughing continues, although possibly a having a bit stronger of an impact than before. The last few days feature a warm up with higher height anomalies taking over. This is centered around March 24th: This is an honest forecast based strictly on the recent analogs. I'm not posting this to try and cause problems, and although this is my first thread, I hope you guys don't think I'm in the wrong here. Hopefully we can get a good discussion going on the different potentials throughout the month. Thanks for reading guys... Bryant Bryant not a bad post at all, actually it is a good topic of discussion. You obviously put some effort into this. Great job. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thenewbigmack Posted February 22, 2011 Author Share Posted February 22, 2011 Bryant not a bad post at all, actually it is a good topic of discussion. You obviously put some effort into this. Great job. Thanks River Card! I appreciate it. Yeah it took some time, it was a fun project to do though. I'm curious on Don's and others thoughts on this March. Hopefully their outlooks for the East look better than mine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 I posted in the New England thread that my research indicates two periods when major east coast storms could develop, one being March 4-7, with the chance for a KU type snowstorm or even blizzard, and March 19-21, more of a nor'easter situation with rain and strong winds near the coast and wintry precip inland. These seem to fit your maps in general terms. Outside of those two periods, would expect the month to be somewhat colder than normal and dominated by winds from north to east directions with anomalous low heights over eastern Canada. Seems that this pattern has begun to develop already after the mid-February warm spell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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