Snowlover11 Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 finished with 6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Looks like Mount Holly will be going with warnings for part of the area, 3-5 inches in zone forecasts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Redmorninglight Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 44.8F winds NW 5-10 and overcast sky. Just a question... is this event purely an overrunning situation or is there any help from the Atlantic? I thank you in advance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 interesting that the HRRR expands precip a bit farther north than the NAM. same thing happened on 1/26 where other short-range models over estaimted the norther cut-off (ask LVblizzard about that). not saying it will happen again, but I'm curious to see who wins this match... The HRRR was right about the location of the cutoff for a few of its runs, but gave too much snow to the Lehigh Valley. It showed the band of heavy snow along with the thundersnow from roughly Allentown to Doylestown, when in reality it was more like Quakertown to Philly. HRRR forecast for Allentown for round 2 was 10+", we got 9...for the immediate burbs of Philly it was just under 10" and I believe some locations like Brookhaven picked up a foot from the 2nd round. The RR was the farthest north with the cutoff, I believe, bringing it to near Tamaqua when they were on the short side of things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Looks like Mount Holly will be going with warnings for part of the area, 3-5 inches in zone forecasts Where do you see 3-5 in the ZFP? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 3-5" is my forecast from the NWS. Tonight: A chance of rain and snow before 8pm, then snow and sleet between 8pm and midnight, then snow after midnight. Low around 23. Northeast wind between 11 and 14 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow and sleet accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 New SREF a smidge further north... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 3-5" is my forecast from the NWS. Tonight: A chance of rain and snow before 8pm, then snow and sleet between 8pm and midnight, then snow after midnight. Low around 23. Northeast wind between 11 and 14 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow and sleet accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible. That's point and click, not zone. This is the zone... http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/PHI/ZFPPHI The update on the point and click is 1:49 PM so yeah, it looks like they might go with warnings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Sorry. Didn't know the difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Where do you see 3-5 in the ZFP? Kent/New Castle counties in Delaware, along with NE Maryland. My apologies, I meant Point and Click, not zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather5 Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 I know this may be dumb to ask, any chance of thundersnow with this storm. I had thundersnow one time this year and it was awsome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 . It's hard to believe that with a radar shot like that, its all going to miss everyone from I-80 north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 New NAM looks a hair farther north but also a tad weaker too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 I know this may be dumb to ask, any chance of thundersnow with this storm. I had thundersnow one time this year and it was awsome. no chance you need a bombing low off the coast for that 99% of the time...enjoy the snow down there guys-your turn on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluehens Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 There are now Winter Storm Warnings for all of northern MD from west to east and south down past Annapolis. I don't believe New Castle County even has an advisory at this point but I'm wondering if a warning is not out of the question for us. Kent/New Castle counties in Delaware, along with NE Maryland. My apologies, I meant Point and Click, not zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 simulated radar on the 18z NAM at inilization time... In 6 hrs VS actual I would say the NAM has a very poor idea regarding the current radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 I would say it looks pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 I would say it looks pretty good. for starters, look at the panel from the initilization, it looks horribly disorganized even though its quite pronounced on radar. At 6hrs the intensity doesnt look too far off but the placement is off, and if it were to be off, it wouldn't be far fetched to say the precip shield should be farther north. The NAM gives northern NJ virtually nothing yet most other models at least bring some precip into the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 313 PM EST MON FEB 21 2011 ...A FAST MOVING WINTER STORM WILL RETURN SNOW AND SLIPPERY TRAVEL TO MUCH OF OUR AREA BY MIDNIGHT... .LOW PRESSURE IN KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST OF NORFOLK VIRGINIA TOMORROW MORNING. ACCUMULATING SNOW OVERNIGHT WILL GENERALLY END BY SUNRISE TUESDAY. MELTING WILL BE SLOW TOMORROW AS TEMPERATURES STRUGGLE TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE AFTERNOON. DEZ001-002-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ016>018-021>025-PAZ070-071- 221000- /O.NEW.KPHI.WS.W.0007.110222T0000Z-110222T1400Z/ NEW CASTLE-KENT-CECIL-KENT MD-QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-CAROLINE-SALEM- GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-CUMBERLAND-ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY- ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-COASTAL ATLANTIC-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WILMINGTON...DOVER...ELKTON... CHESTERTOWN...CENTREVILLE...EASTON...DENTON...PENNSVILLE... GLASSBORO...CAMDEN...CHERRY HILL...MILLVILLE...HAMMONTON... CAPE MAY COURT HOUSE...OCEAN CITY...ATLANTIC CITY...MEDIA... PHILADELPHIA 313 PM EST MON FEB 21 2011 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST TUESDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST TUESDAY. * LOCATIONS...THE PHILADELPHIA AREA OF SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA... SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF THE ATLANTIC CITY EXPRESSWAY...THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF DELAWARE AND MUCH OF MARYLAND`S EASTERN SHORE. * HAZARD TYPES...SNOW. THERE MAY BE A LITTLE SLEET AT THE BEGINNING BUT IT WONT LAST LONG. * ACCUMULATIONS...3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW. * TIMING...SPOTTY RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL QUICKLY CHANGE TO SNOW THIS EVENING WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW FREEZING BY LATE EVENING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. SNOW SHOULD TAPER TO FLURRIES AND END BETWEEN 6 AM AND 9 AM TUESDAY. * SNOW FALL RATES...MAY REACH 1 INCH PER HOUR SOMETIME BETWEEN 11 PM AND 4 AM. * IMPACTS...SNOW COVERED AND SLIPPERY PAVEMENTS ARE ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE EVENING AND VERY HAZARDOUS TRAVEL IS EXPECTED FOR SEVERAL HOURS TONIGHT. * WINDS...NORTHEAST 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. * TEMPERATURES...WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BY AROUND MIDNIGHT AND BE DOWN TO 20 TO 25 DEGREES BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY. * VISIBILITIES...AT TIMES NEAR OR BELOW ONE HALF MILE OVERNIGHT IN A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW... SLEET...AND ICE ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 for starters, look at the panel from the initilization, it looks horribly disorganized even though its quite pronounced on radar. At 6hrs the intensity doesnt look too far off but the placement is off, and if it were to be off, it wouldn't be far fetched to say the precip shield should be farther north. The NAM gives northern NJ virtually nothing yet most other models at least bring some precip into the area. Watch for dry air in North Jersey. FWIW, you should be comparing the 12z radar to 1 PM to see how accurate that particular run is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 They have a new snow map out but for the life of me I can't figure out how to get the image to post here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 18z HRRR says hi FWIW I do believe it overestimated round 1 snowfall, so use with caution. Personally I think the RR has outperformed the HRRR on quite a few of these smaller scale events. Some light snow looks to still fall outside of this model's range, so perhaps you can tack on an inch or so more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 18Z NAM is a touch further north... here's the comparison (18Z top, 12Z bottom) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 They have a new snow map out but for the life of me I can't figure out how to get the image to post here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 The HRRR has been good this winter, but when it busts, it's usually too far north. I'd take that forecast with a grain of salt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 There are now Winter Storm Warnings for all of northern MD from west to east and south down past Annapolis. I don't believe New Castle County even has an advisory at this point but I'm wondering if a warning is not out of the question for us. NCC has a WSW now, too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 21, 2011 Author Share Posted February 21, 2011 18Z NAM is a touch further north... here's the comparison (18Z top, 12Z bottom) new nam is the wettest so far in the past day or so, now about .4 qpf for phl. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 This is one of those systems where having the snow ob in National Park will help verify warning criteria for PHL... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 This is one of those systems where having the snow ob in National Park will help verify warning criteria for PHL... I don't quite follow... the gradient is essentially right along the line between PHL and Nat Park. I don't think they'll get more than PHL airport proper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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