snowlurker Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 GFS a bit south. I think I'll go the same for tonight as for last night around Trenton... coating to 2 inches. Though I'd bet closer to the coating. 2 inches is just in case it manages to slide a bit further north. Ray, do you care to give an opinion on the wisdom of following the GFS at this short of a range? Does its accuracy diminish at this point (with respect to a tonight into tomorrow event) and we should rely more on the NAM and HRRR? Or does it still serve as a decent tool along with the NAM and HRRR? I know others have discussed the relative merits of the various models at various timeframes, but I didn't copy/paste that into a cheat sheet. So sorry if this has been asked before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Quite a temperature gradient accross area. Below is snippet from latest Mt. Holly roundup. 45F difference between Patuxent and Binghampton. $$ NJZ001>014-211700- NORTHERN NEW JERSEY CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS SUSSEX CLOUDY 27 19 74 NE8 29.74F WCI 18 ANDOVER* N/A 27 23 85 NE13 29.73F WCI 16 MORRISTOWN CLOUDY 31 28 89 N7 29.73F WCI 24 CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS PHILADELPHIA CLOUDY 39 31 72 N8 29.72R WCI 33 MOUNT POCONO CLOUDY 28 22 78 N6 29.65F WCI 22 WILKES BARRE CLOUDY 27 21 80 N12 29.73F WCI 16 $$ DEZALL-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-211700- DELAWARE AND EASTERN MARYLAND CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS GEORGETOWN PTSUNNY 54 33 45 W8 29.66S PATUXENT PTSUNNY 62 34 35 W17 29.66R OCEAN CITY PTSUNNY 58 41 53 W7 29.65F WALLOPS ISLAND PTSUNNY 59 40 49 W18G38 29.65F SALISBURY CLOUDY 56 37 49 W15 29.66S CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS BINGHAMTON FLURRIES 17 12 80 N15 29.79R WCI 2 $$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BucksCO_PA Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 GFS a bit south. I think I'll go the same for tonight as for last night around Trenton... coating to 2 inches. Though I'd bet closer to the coating. 2 inches is just in case it manages to slide a bit further north. forecast violation - too much of a spread for low end totals either coating to an inch or 1-2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 forecast violation - too much of a spread for low end totals either coating to an inch or 1-2" Oh puh-lease... remember the level of QPF we are talking about. I don't know anyone who can accurately forecast within a tenth of an inch all the time, or even some of the time. Not to mention the crazy gradient. Besides, that was a perfectly acceptable forecast at AccuWeather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 forecast violation - too much of a spread for low end totals either coating to an inch or 1-2" He did work for AccuWx for a time, so he is okay with that range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Ray, do you care to give an opinion on the wisdom of following the GFS at this short of a range? Does its accuracy diminish at this point (with respect to a tonight into tomorrow event) and we should rely more on the NAM and HRRR? Or does it still serve as a decent tool along with the NAM and HRRR? I know others have discussed the relative merits of the various models at various timeframes, but I didn't copy/paste that into a cheat sheet. So sorry if this has been asked before. If the NAM showed it north I'd be more cautious... but the GFS is essentially in-line with the NAM and the previous GEM around Trenton with a bit less than 0.10" QPF. If there is major discrepency between the NAM and GFS then that's a warning alarm in the short term (as there was for the 0Z runs last night, with the NAM mostly north and the GFS bringing a boat-load of precip into PHL), but that's not the case now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Well, part 1 certainly underperformed a bit, with me getting 1.25" in Metuchen vs. the 3-5" forecast. On the bright side, however, this snowfall pushes us over 60" for the season to 60.5", which is pretty damn sweet. After ending last year at 59" with no snow in March and then being stuck on 59" this year for the past month (outside of a couple of 1/4" events), I was starting to worry we somehow wouldn't crack 60". Very nice. Tonight's not looking so good for us this far north, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 21, 2011 Author Share Posted February 21, 2011 Hrrr still looking good for the immediate phl area on south rr has a crazy gradient setting up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Definitely looking good to be south and west of PHL on this next one... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 21, 2011 Author Share Posted February 21, 2011 Definitely looking good to be south and west of PHL on this next one... im still liking my 2-3 for phl as i said yestderday, or i should say, you said Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxphanatic Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 I have an official snowfall measurement from my house in Toms River NJ...as of 10:45am. Looks like a nasty bit of dethatching / raking ahead of you in a few weeks... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 I'll post the EURO QPF as it comes in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
unknown Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Latest RR, about 3-5" for Philly. 5-7" just SW of philly. Probally little more after that, since it only goes up to 18 hour. Also GGEM is back north from 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 had a nice surprise 7.8 inches of snow last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scotty Lightning Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Looks like a nasty bit of dethatching / raking ahead of you in a few weeks... Actually the big problem is that the front lawn has tunnels all over it from various animals. At least(looking at most of the 12z model runs-minus the Euro) that 1-3" tonight will temporarily cover it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 EURO QPF(precip that falls from 00z TUE to 18z TUE) PHL: .29 ABE: .12 RDG: .25 ILG: .36 MIV: .32 ACY: .28 DOV: .40 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 EURO QPF(precip that falls from 00z TUE to 18z TUE) PHL: .29 ABE: .12 RDG: .25 ILG: .36 MIV: .32 ACY: .28 DOV: .40 You never give TTN... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 You never give TTN... .16 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 You never give TTN... TTN: .16 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 TTN: .16 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 A blend off all the models appears to give 1-3" north of the PA Turnpike (from about Morgantown, PA on east) and 1-3" also north of I-195 or the ACY expressway in Jersey. Areas south of there (and west of Morgantown) get 3-5" based on what I see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 A blend off all the models appears to give 1-3" north of the PA Turnpike (from about Morgantown, PA on east) and 1-3" also north of I-195 or the ACY expressway in Jersey. Areas south of there (and west of Morgantown) get 3-5" based on what I see. I would say the AC Expressway... North of I-195 its more like a coating to an inch or 2, using said blend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 I would say the AC Expressway... North of I-195 its more like a coating to an inch or 2, using said blend. Gotcha, can't argue much with ya there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 I can buy this type of cutoff somewhere near the area. NAM tends to nail cutoffs pretty well inside of 24 hours. It's possible Quakertown sees flurries while Philly gets 4". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 I can buy this type of cutoff somewhere near the area. NAM tends to nail cutoffs pretty well inside of 24 hours. It's possible Quakertown sees flurries while Philly gets 4". that'd give Rofo. about 2". Seems reasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 that'd give Rofo. about 2". Seems reasonable. I have 422 for 1-3, Chesco 2-4...NAM FTW? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 I have 422 for 1-3, Chesco 2-4...NAM FTW? I think at this point, most models are coming into fair agreeement with those numbers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RkTec Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 34.1 degrees with light snow falling here in Emmaus, PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 interesting that the HRRR expands precip a bit farther north than the NAM. same thing happened on 1/26 where other short-range models over estaimted the norther cut-off (ask LVblizzard about that). not saying it will happen again, but I'm curious to see who wins this match... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 I can buy this type of cutoff somewhere near the area. NAM tends to nail cutoffs pretty well inside of 24 hours. It's possible Quakertown sees flurries while Philly gets 4". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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