Porsche Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 yes because you can see it in the hgt lines that its more suppressive along the east coast then in western pa, it like bows down, almost like a cad signature. Thanks am hoping that radar image you posted works out, that would be sweet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 21, 2011 Author Share Posted February 21, 2011 rr total accum precip, with a little more to go afterwards total snowfall so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm Clouds Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 yes because you can see it in the hgt lines that its more suppressive along the east coast then in western pa, it like bows down, almost like a cad signature. Tombo, should I be worried about this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Tombo, should I be worried about this? The NAM hasn't exactly been the most reliable lately.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 21, 2011 Author Share Posted February 21, 2011 Tombo, should I be worried about this? no, if i was north of aline from dyl to rdg to northern lebanon county i would Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 latest hrrr composite radar HRRR FTW 1/25... HRRR FTW 2/21? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BucksCO_PA Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Tombo, should I be worried about this? Not as much as we should be worried on the north side of Philly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 21, 2011 Author Share Posted February 21, 2011 The NAM hasn't exactly been the most reliable lately.. for rd 1 the nam was way better than the gfs for these parts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 no, if i was north of aline from dyl to rdg to northern lebanon county i would I'm within that line, so you think I'll be ok for at least 2-3"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 for rd 1 the nam was way better than the gfs for these parts. For here they both had just a bit of snow, as I recall, didn't they? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 IMBY posts seem to be increasing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Ha! Now wouldn't that sim radar be nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 21, 2011 Author Share Posted February 21, 2011 For here they both had just a bit of snow, as I recall, didn't they? gfs had over .25 of qpf while the nam was less than .1...to answer your question, i think 2 inches is a good call i would be hesitant to go more than that right now till i see how the radar looks tonight and how much northward movement is made. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 gfs had over .25 of qpf while the nam was less than .1...to answer your question, i think 2 inches is a good call i would be hesitant to go more than that right now till i see how the radar looks tonight and how much northward movement is made. Fair enough. Lots of nowcasting will have to go on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 IMBY posts seem to be increasing. It's mostly just one person. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 21, 2011 Author Share Posted February 21, 2011 12z rgem has bumped north 5mm is .2 qpf... 10 mm .4 qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 IMBY posts seem to be increasing. This. I've been pretty lax since the split, but you guys need to cut it out. There is enough analysis going on in this thread that you don't need to ask IMBY questions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Plokoon111 Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 No snow in my backyard, it all melted already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 This. I've been pretty lax since the split, but you guys need to cut it out. There is enough analysis going on in this thread that you don't need to ask IMBY questions. I'm sorry if you felt I was one the ones doing it. There was discussion for my area and north/west, so I wondered how Tom felt. I won't ask more than I did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 NAM Clown Map, nasty cutoff: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlurker Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Anyone notice how much colder the 12Z NAM is over the HRRR (I always forget how many R's there are). The HRRR takes its sweet time dropping the 850mbar level temperature below freezing but the NAM seems to be nearly all snow. Anyone care to comment on the likelihood that one is more correct over the other? As far as precip goes, the HRRR really nailed Jan 25 but I think both the HRRR and NAM correctly predicted the relative allocation between different p-types on that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Models will struggle with the dense cold air drilling into the system...my bet is this trends colder. It is why it has been trending somewhat south over time Anyone notice how much colder the 12Z NAM is over the HRRR (I always forget how many R's there are). The HRRR takes its sweet time dropping the 850mbar level temperature below freezing but the NAM seems to be nearly all snow. Anyone care to comment on the likelihood that one is more correct over the other? As far as precip goes, the HRRR really nailed Jan 25 but I think both the HRRR and NAM correctly predicted the relative allocation between different p-types on that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlurker Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Mike, do you know if Mt Holly will refresh their snow map (generally no snow in DE and assume all precip must be sleet)? Or is it at odds with the point forecast (which indicates some snow and some sleet)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 for some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Mike, do you know if Mt Holly will refresh their snow map (generally no snow in DE and assume all precip must be sleet)? Or is it at odds with the point forecast (which indicates some snow and some sleet)? That storm total snow graphic was for round 1 which has ended. That graphic should be removed shortly, and we will be working on a new graphic for round 2 which will be posted sometime this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 I want to share a youtube video, i forget how to embed it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scotty Lightning Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 I have an official snowfall measurement from my house in Toms River NJ...as of 10:45am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boreal Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 I have an official snowfall measurement from my house in Toms River NJ...as of 10:45am. Maybe there's more on the board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Woke up to about 1" on non-paved surfaces today. So much for 3-5". Oh well, I didn't want to shovel anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 GFS a bit south. I think I'll go the same for tonight as for last night around Trenton... coating to 2 inches. Though I'd bet closer to the coating. 2 inches is just in case it manages to slide a bit further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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