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Presidents Day Storm OBS and NOWCASTING.


tombo82685

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NWS is really liberal with this forecast for the Lehigh Valley

Overnight: Snow. Low around 26. Southeast wind around 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Total nighttime snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible.

Washington's Birthday: Snow before 2pm, then a slight chance of rain between 2pm and 5pm, then a slight chance of rain and snow after 5pm. High near 35. East wind 5 to 11 mph becoming north. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.

4-8"? Maybe we should be in the warning too.

29° Degrees here in Schnecksville, moderate snow, everything covered.

really suprising how quick roads (including 309) got covered after the warmth.

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For those of you in NE PA that are skeptical. Well mainly just one person, lol.

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0116

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1050 PM CST SUN FEB 20 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NRN/CENTRAL PA...NERN OH...WRN THROUGH

SERN NY...NWRN NJ.

CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION

VALID 210450Z - 210945Z

CORRIDOR OF MDT-HEAVY SNOW FCST TO SPREAD FROM WRN NY AND NRN PA

TOWARD MID-ATLANTIC COAST WHILE MAINTAINING POTENTIAL OVER

N-CENTRAL/NWRN PA AND ADJACENT SECTIONS WRN NY THROUGH 10Z. 1-2

INCH/HOUR RATES ARE POSSIBLE. SRN PORTIONS DISCUSSION AREA...FROM

NERN OH ESEWD ACROSS CENTRAL PA...LIKEWISE WILL SEE EXISTING

PRECIP...IN THIS CASE FREEZING RAIN...SPREAD EWD...WITH SNOW

TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS CENTRAL PA.

.05-.1 INCH FREEZING RAIN RATES MAY OCCUR IN EMBEDDED SHOWERS.

ERN PORTION OF PRECIP PLUME -- SUPPORTED BY ELEVATED/LOW-LEVEL WAA

AND RELATED UVV INTO DENDTRITIC GROWTH LAYERS -- WILL EXPAND EWD

ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA. AS THIS OCCURS...PRECIP INTO RELATIVELY DRY

LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS NOW OVER NERN PA/SERN NY/NRN NJ WILL

PROGRESSIVELY MOISTEN ANTECEDENT AIR MASS AND CONTRIBUTE TO COOLING

VIA WET-BULB EFFECTS...AS ALREADY NOTED OVER CENTRAL PA AND AS FAR E

AS AVP. CONTINUED MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THIS REGIME OF BROADLY

BANDED ISENTROPIC/FRONTOGENETIC ASCENT WILL SUPPORT INCREASING

POTENTIAL FOR EMBEDDED HEAVY SNOW TO REACH GROUND. MEANWHILE

TRANSITION TO MIXTURE OF SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN...THEN JUST FREEZING

RAIN...WILL OCCUR IN PORTIONS CENTRAL-WRN PA AS CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL

WAA DEEPENS SUPERFREEZING LAYER JUST ABOVE SFC. ALTHOUGH

SMALL-SCALE VARIATIONS ARE LIKELY...LITTLE NET MOTION IN SFC

FREEZING LINE IS EXPECTED DURING NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS NERN OH AND

WRN/CENTRAL PA WHERE WET-BULBING ALREADY HAS TAKEN PLACE...HOWEVER

FREEZING LINE SHOULD SHIFT SWD SLIGHTLY OVER DE VALLEY REGION AND

NRN NJ. AFTER ABOUT 09Z...LOW-MIDLEVEL ASCENT IS PROGGED TO WEAKEN

ACROSS THIS REGION...THOUGH POCKETS OF INTERMITTENT HEAVY SNOW STILL

MAY OCCUR...ALONG WITH FREEZING RAIN ON SRN LIMB OF PRECIP PLUME.

..EDWARDS.. 02/21/2011

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