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Presidents Day Storm OBS and NOWCASTING.


tombo82685

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If you're going by the ASOS... don't. It doesn't know the difference between sleet and.. well, just about everything else ;) It could be sleet or sleet/snow mix, no way for ASOS to know.

Hopefully that will change as we have been testing a new ASOS present weather sensor at the office this winter.

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Airmass is just so darn dry. Already wasting precip trying to saturate the column. I'm seeing this as more a general 1-2" event for most with some 3 or 4 inch total somewhere in central MD.

Only an inch to go in Altoona and Johnstown

KAOO 212353Z AUTO 05013KT 3/4SM -SN BR VV007 M05/M07 A2979 RMK AO2 SLP107 P0002 60011 T10501072 10000 21050 55008
KJST 212354Z AUTO 07008KT 3/4SM -SN BR SCT007 OVC025 M06/M07 A2974 RMK AO2 PRESRR SLP094 P0002 60014 T10561072 11006 21056 53007

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Only an inch to go in Altoona and Johnstown

KAOO 212353Z AUTO 05013KT 3/4SM -SN BR VV007 M05/M07 A2979 RMK AO2 SLP107 P0002 60011 T10501072 10000 21050 55008
KJST 212354Z AUTO 07008KT 3/4SM -SN BR SCT007 OVC025 M06/M07 A2974 RMK AO2 PRESRR SLP094 P0002 60014 T10561072 11006 21056 53007

They've probably had several inches given the wonderful job heated tipping buckets do when it comes to melting snow :arrowhead:

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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0118

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0458 PM CST MON FEB 21 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN PA/MD

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW

VALID 212258Z - 220300Z

ONGOING MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL IN PORTIONS OF SWRN/S CNTRL PA

WILL CONTINUE TO EPISODICALLY PRODUCE INCH AN HOUR RATES WHILE

SPREADING EWD INTO SERN PA/MD.

COLD ADVECTION AND WET BULB COOLING EFFECTS ARE LEADING TO

PLUMMETING SURFACE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE MCD AREA...WITH THE

SURFACE COLD FRONT NOW ANALYZED WELL SOUTH NEAR THE VA/NC

BORDER...ARCING NWWD THEN WWD TO A SURFACE LOW NEAR THE KY/IND/OH

BORDER. MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW IS ALREADY BEING REPORTED ON THE

LEADING EDGE OF GREATER MOISTURE IN S CNTRL PA AT JOHNSTOWN AND

ALTOONA. AREA VAD WIND PROFILE DATA REFLECTS NEAR 40 KTS WLY FLOW AT

4000 FT...OR AROUND 800 MB...WHICH IS LIKELY LEADING TO A FASTER

TRANSITION TO MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW THAN 18Z DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE

WOULD SUGGEST AS GREATER MOISTURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TRANSITIONS

EWD. UPPER ASCENT WILL INCREASE AS A LOW OVER ME/NEW BRUNSWICK

DRIFTS EWD...AND A SEPARATE LOW APPROACHES FROM THE W...MAXIMIZING

VERTICAL MOTION IN FAVORABLE MID/UPPER JET ENTRANCE/EXIT REGIONS.

CURRENT ANALYSIS SHOWS MAXIMIZED 850 MB CONVERGENCE OVER SRN

PA...SHIFTING SLIGHTLY SEWD INTO SERN PA/MD OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

EXPECT HEAVIEST SNOW TO DEVELOP EWD ACCORDINGLY...WHILE PERIODS OF

HEAVY SNOW CONTINUE ACROSS WRN PORTIONS OF THE MCD AREA AS WELL.

..HURLBUT.. 02/21/2011

post-1201-0-67417600-1298332713.gif

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Airmass is just so darn dry. Already wasting precip trying to saturate the column. I'm seeing this as more a general 1-2" event for most with some 3 or 4 inch total somewhere in central MD.

I tend to agree. Here in NW Montco, ....after a quick hard fall on the DP, I just bounced off 14 to 15, humidity went 48 to 51. Still very low with staedy north wind @4. We will awake to powder puff dry snow.

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