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Presidents Day Storm OBS and NOWCASTING.


tombo82685

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this is why your going to see the precip slide southeast and a lot of vrga once past freehold to abe to selinsgrove line. It basically has a cad signature, very dry air.

http://www.erh.noaa..../dewpt_loop.htm

That explains it! We went from 33F to 23F in the past 2 1/2 hours. I was kind of hoping to add to the 6+ we had overnight but oh well.

D

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I thought about driving back to my house last night in northern NJ, but decided to wait it out here at school and experience round 2. Back home they got 7inches, here in Newark, DE I hope to squeeze out 4-7. I think that is reasonable.

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JB just tweeted to expect 2 heavy bands tonight...one in the heart of the heavy precip the other further north where ratios will be 20-30:1

He also tweeted this:

http://twitter.com/bigjoebastardi

and Is no longer with Accuweather! Jesse Farrell just posted on the genral forum :o

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php?/topic/13869-i-heard-that-jb-resigned-from-accuwx/

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Latest AFD:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ

533 PM EST MON FEB 21 2011

.SYNOPSIS...

LOW PRESSURE WILL NEAR LOUSIVILLE KENTUCKY AT 5 PM WILL MOVE OUT

TO SEA EAST OF NORFOLK VIRGINIA TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE

WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE

IS FORECAST TO LIFT ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY AND

PULL A COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA ON FRIDAY.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...

RRQ OF PROBABLE 250 MB SPEED MAX OF 130 KTS OVER SNE THIS EVENING

COUPLED WITH THE LFQ OF THE 135 KT OHIO VALLEY SPEED MAX HEADING

FOR KORF TOMORROW MORNING IS PROBABLY THE PRIMARY DRIVER OF LIFT.

SFC WINDS IN THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS KY AT 5PM TO 30 KTS LIFTING

50+SFC DEWPOINTS OVER EVER COLDER LOW LVL WEDGE OF AIR PRESSING

SOUTHWARD THROUGH NJ AND PA BEHIND THIOS MORNINGS SNOW PRODUCTIVE

AND EASTWARD DEPARTING FIRST LOW CENTER. THE LIFT WITH THIS SECOND

LOW IS ALREADY REALIZED IN PA WITH 1/2 TO 1/2SM MDT TO HEAVY SNOW

FROM SRN CENTRAL PA THRU MUCH OF N OHIO.

SO WHILE THE 500 MB VORT IS MOVING INTO CONFLUENCE BETWEEN THE NRN

STREAM IN NEW ENGLAND AND SEPARATE OHIO VALLEY UPPER LVL JET...THE

LIFT SHOULD BE EXCELLENT OVERNIGHT AND SUSPECT 1-2/HR SNOWFALL

RATES FOR 2-4 HRS IN SRN PA/N MD.. N DEL INTO S NJ. EXACT PLACEMENT

DEFINES LARGEST AMOUNTS. WILL UPDATE WSW AT 6PM FOR TIMING.

A SUBSTANTIAL OVERNIGHT TRAVEL PROBLEM LOOMS AS TEMPS PLUNGE BELOW

FREEZING AND SNOW BEGINS WITH VERY HAZARDOUS TRAVEL EXPECTED IN

THE WARNING AND ADVY ZONES.

GUSTY NNE WINDS OF 25-30 MPH WILL CAUSE SOME DRIFTING DURING THE

NIGHT.

POSSIBLE UPGRADE AT 8 PM TO A WARNING MAY BE AHEAD FOR THE REGION

IN SE PA SW OF PHL WHERE AM CONCERNED ABOUT WIDESPREAD 6 INCH AMOUNTS.

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Latest AFD:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ

533 PM EST MON FEB 21 2011

.SYNOPSIS...

LOW PRESSURE WILL NEAR LOUSIVILLE KENTUCKY AT 5 PM WILL MOVE OUT

TO SEA EAST OF NORFOLK VIRGINIA TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE

WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE

IS FORECAST TO LIFT ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY AND

PULL A COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA ON FRIDAY.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...

RRQ OF PROBABLE 250 MB SPEED MAX OF 130 KTS OVER SNE THIS EVENING

COUPLED WITH THE LFQ OF THE 135 KT OHIO VALLEY SPEED MAX HEADING

FOR KORF TOMORROW MORNING IS PROBABLY THE PRIMARY DRIVER OF LIFT.

SFC WINDS IN THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS KY AT 5PM TO 30 KTS LIFTING

50+SFC DEWPOINTS OVER EVER COLDER LOW LVL WEDGE OF AIR PRESSING

SOUTHWARD THROUGH NJ AND PA BEHIND THIOS MORNINGS SNOW PRODUCTIVE

AND EASTWARD DEPARTING FIRST LOW CENTER. THE LIFT WITH THIS SECOND

LOW IS ALREADY REALIZED IN PA WITH 1/2 TO 1/2SM MDT TO HEAVY SNOW

FROM SRN CENTRAL PA THRU MUCH OF N OHIO.

SO WHILE THE 500 MB VORT IS MOVING INTO CONFLUENCE BETWEEN THE NRN

STREAM IN NEW ENGLAND AND SEPARATE OHIO VALLEY UPPER LVL JET...THE

LIFT SHOULD BE EXCELLENT OVERNIGHT AND SUSPECT 1-2/HR SNOWFALL

RATES FOR 2-4 HRS IN SRN PA/N MD.. N DEL INTO S NJ. EXACT PLACEMENT

DEFINES LARGEST AMOUNTS. WILL UPDATE WSW AT 6PM FOR TIMING.

A SUBSTANTIAL OVERNIGHT TRAVEL PROBLEM LOOMS AS TEMPS PLUNGE BELOW

FREEZING AND SNOW BEGINS WITH VERY HAZARDOUS TRAVEL EXPECTED IN

THE WARNING AND ADVY ZONES.

GUSTY NNE WINDS OF 25-30 MPH WILL CAUSE SOME DRIFTING DURING THE

NIGHT.

POSSIBLE UPGRADE AT 8 PM TO A WARNING MAY BE AHEAD FOR THE REGION

IN SE PA SW OF PHL WHERE AM CONCERNED ABOUT WIDESPREAD 6 INCH AMOUNTS.

I agree with this. The lift along the baroclinic zone is favorable and the strong omega/uvv's at h7 are indicative of banding and increased snow rates. I think their placement seems reasonable. All this coupled with a very cool column and possible rations of 12 or 15 to 1 could possibly result in a band of 5-8 inch amounts in the aforementioned areas.

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If anyone hasn't done so, take a look at the State College radar... epic rip-off for State College while Altoona is getting plastered.

I have been watching that for the past hour, what a tease for State College. The lift/dynamics are impressive and resulting in some heavy precip, should be interesting to watch this continue to unfold.

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