LVblizzard Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Looks like the RR and HRRR are coming into agreement about ABE being right on the cutoff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 21, 2011 Author Share Posted February 21, 2011 this is why your going to see the precip slide southeast and a lot of vrga once past freehold to abe to selinsgrove line. It basically has a cad signature, very dry air. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/ctp/analysis/dewpt_loop.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PoconoD Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 this is why your going to see the precip slide southeast and a lot of vrga once past freehold to abe to selinsgrove line. It basically has a cad signature, very dry air. http://www.erh.noaa..../dewpt_loop.htm That explains it! We went from 33F to 23F in the past 2 1/2 hours. I was kind of hoping to add to the 6+ we had overnight but oh well. D Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 18Z GFS (top) versus 12Z (bottom) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 I thought about driving back to my house last night in northern NJ, but decided to wait it out here at school and experience round 2. Back home they got 7inches, here in Newark, DE I hope to squeeze out 4-7. I think that is reasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 You can see the precip starting to push southeast a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Man, Central NJ is really getting the shaft here, with 3-5"+ just to the north last night (~1" here) and now 3-5"+ totals just to our south. Oh well! That is a first Jake...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 That is a first Jake...lol Not for Trenton its not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 JB just tweeted to expect 2 heavy bands tonight...one in the heart of the heavy precip the other further north where ratios will be 20-30:1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 On the latest radar you can see how the leading stuff is starting to slide a bit south of east as opposed to due east. You are like the scrooge of snow around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlurker Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 JB just tweeted to expect 2 heavy bands tonight...one in the heart of the heavy precip the other further north where ratios will be 20-30:1 What does WxSim tell you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 You are like the scrooge of snow around here. I have to be to keep my sanity, after the way I've been ripped off over the last 7 weeks out here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 JB just tweeted to expect 2 heavy bands tonight...one in the heart of the heavy precip the other further north where ratios will be 20-30:1 He also tweeted this: http://twitter.com/bigjoebastardi and Is no longer with Accuweather! Jesse Farrell just posted on the genral forum http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php?/topic/13869-i-heard-that-jb-resigned-from-accuwx/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 There is some light sleet falling right now, temperatures and dew points continue to fall with a northerly flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 I have to be to keep my sanity, after the way I've been ripped off over the last 7 weeks out here I hear ya. I hope things change before spring for ya! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobbTC Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Latest AFD: AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 533 PM EST MON FEB 21 2011 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL NEAR LOUSIVILLE KENTUCKY AT 5 PM WILL MOVE OUT TO SEA EAST OF NORFOLK VIRGINIA TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO LIFT ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY AND PULL A COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA ON FRIDAY. .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... RRQ OF PROBABLE 250 MB SPEED MAX OF 130 KTS OVER SNE THIS EVENING COUPLED WITH THE LFQ OF THE 135 KT OHIO VALLEY SPEED MAX HEADING FOR KORF TOMORROW MORNING IS PROBABLY THE PRIMARY DRIVER OF LIFT. SFC WINDS IN THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS KY AT 5PM TO 30 KTS LIFTING 50+SFC DEWPOINTS OVER EVER COLDER LOW LVL WEDGE OF AIR PRESSING SOUTHWARD THROUGH NJ AND PA BEHIND THIOS MORNINGS SNOW PRODUCTIVE AND EASTWARD DEPARTING FIRST LOW CENTER. THE LIFT WITH THIS SECOND LOW IS ALREADY REALIZED IN PA WITH 1/2 TO 1/2SM MDT TO HEAVY SNOW FROM SRN CENTRAL PA THRU MUCH OF N OHIO. SO WHILE THE 500 MB VORT IS MOVING INTO CONFLUENCE BETWEEN THE NRN STREAM IN NEW ENGLAND AND SEPARATE OHIO VALLEY UPPER LVL JET...THE LIFT SHOULD BE EXCELLENT OVERNIGHT AND SUSPECT 1-2/HR SNOWFALL RATES FOR 2-4 HRS IN SRN PA/N MD.. N DEL INTO S NJ. EXACT PLACEMENT DEFINES LARGEST AMOUNTS. WILL UPDATE WSW AT 6PM FOR TIMING. A SUBSTANTIAL OVERNIGHT TRAVEL PROBLEM LOOMS AS TEMPS PLUNGE BELOW FREEZING AND SNOW BEGINS WITH VERY HAZARDOUS TRAVEL EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AND ADVY ZONES. GUSTY NNE WINDS OF 25-30 MPH WILL CAUSE SOME DRIFTING DURING THE NIGHT. POSSIBLE UPGRADE AT 8 PM TO A WARNING MAY BE AHEAD FOR THE REGION IN SE PA SW OF PHL WHERE AM CONCERNED ABOUT WIDESPREAD 6 INCH AMOUNTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Latest AFD: AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 533 PM EST MON FEB 21 2011 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL NEAR LOUSIVILLE KENTUCKY AT 5 PM WILL MOVE OUT TO SEA EAST OF NORFOLK VIRGINIA TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO LIFT ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY AND PULL A COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA ON FRIDAY. .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... RRQ OF PROBABLE 250 MB SPEED MAX OF 130 KTS OVER SNE THIS EVENING COUPLED WITH THE LFQ OF THE 135 KT OHIO VALLEY SPEED MAX HEADING FOR KORF TOMORROW MORNING IS PROBABLY THE PRIMARY DRIVER OF LIFT. SFC WINDS IN THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS KY AT 5PM TO 30 KTS LIFTING 50+SFC DEWPOINTS OVER EVER COLDER LOW LVL WEDGE OF AIR PRESSING SOUTHWARD THROUGH NJ AND PA BEHIND THIOS MORNINGS SNOW PRODUCTIVE AND EASTWARD DEPARTING FIRST LOW CENTER. THE LIFT WITH THIS SECOND LOW IS ALREADY REALIZED IN PA WITH 1/2 TO 1/2SM MDT TO HEAVY SNOW FROM SRN CENTRAL PA THRU MUCH OF N OHIO. SO WHILE THE 500 MB VORT IS MOVING INTO CONFLUENCE BETWEEN THE NRN STREAM IN NEW ENGLAND AND SEPARATE OHIO VALLEY UPPER LVL JET...THE LIFT SHOULD BE EXCELLENT OVERNIGHT AND SUSPECT 1-2/HR SNOWFALL RATES FOR 2-4 HRS IN SRN PA/N MD.. N DEL INTO S NJ. EXACT PLACEMENT DEFINES LARGEST AMOUNTS. WILL UPDATE WSW AT 6PM FOR TIMING. A SUBSTANTIAL OVERNIGHT TRAVEL PROBLEM LOOMS AS TEMPS PLUNGE BELOW FREEZING AND SNOW BEGINS WITH VERY HAZARDOUS TRAVEL EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AND ADVY ZONES. GUSTY NNE WINDS OF 25-30 MPH WILL CAUSE SOME DRIFTING DURING THE NIGHT. POSSIBLE UPGRADE AT 8 PM TO A WARNING MAY BE AHEAD FOR THE REGION IN SE PA SW OF PHL WHERE AM CONCERNED ABOUT WIDESPREAD 6 INCH AMOUNTS. I agree with this. The lift along the baroclinic zone is favorable and the strong omega/uvv's at h7 are indicative of banding and increased snow rates. I think their placement seems reasonable. All this coupled with a very cool column and possible rations of 12 or 15 to 1 could possibly result in a band of 5-8 inch amounts in the aforementioned areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 I already have a Light Snow/Sleet mix falling here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 we see the sleet reports... cape may and pa. tx wd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Have had light snow in Newark, DE. Moisture is overcoming dry, cold air. Soon heavier precipitation out west will begin to overspread the area, and snowfall should pick up in intensity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Snowing lightly here - 32. Already a coating. There appeared to be some sleet mixed in N Delaware+Md on my way home from work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Sleet/Snow mix becoming more of a Snow predominate P-type. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Snow is now coming down at a good clip, the yard is getting white again! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Light snow just west of me in Millville, Cumberland County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Light snow just west of me in Millville, Cumberland County. Good to hear that it's snow and not sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Already a coating of Sleet/Snow on my snowboard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 If anyone hasn't done so, take a look at the State College radar... epic rip-off for State College while Altoona is getting plastered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 21, 2011 Author Share Posted February 21, 2011 ditto what lee said here in drexel hill temp 34 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Light snow just west of me in Millville, Cumberland County. If you're going by the ASOS... don't. It doesn't know the difference between sleet and.. well, just about everything else It could be sleet or sleet/snow mix, no way for ASOS to know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 If anyone hasn't done so, take a look at the State College radar... epic rip-off for State College while Altoona is getting plastered. I have been watching that for the past hour, what a tease for State College. The lift/dynamics are impressive and resulting in some heavy precip, should be interesting to watch this continue to unfold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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