tombo82685 Posted February 21, 2011 Author Share Posted February 21, 2011 heres the rr, seems like this is more realistic than the hrrr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lady Di Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Having a little problem with warning criteria. I thought accumulation was over 4". Why would they word it 3-5? Not complaining just wondering. Also, do you have to do a whole county or can they post statements for different geography within a county? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 heres the rr, seems like this is more realistic than the hrrr. That matches Mt. Holly's snowfall map quite well. I know I don't have much of a chance at seeing snow tonight but I got over 7 inches last night so I can't complain. I'm much more interested in the next two systems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Plokoon111 Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Woot, 2 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 The HRRR has been good this winter, but when it busts, it's usually too far north. I'd take that forecast with a grain of salt. RR seems much more reasonable in showing 2-5" with a fairly tight gradient. Pretty tight 0-2" up your way... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 21, 2011 Author Share Posted February 21, 2011 Having a little problem with warning criteria. I thought accumulation was over 4". Why would they word it 3-5? Not complaining just wondering. Also, do you have to do a whole county or can they post statements for different geography within a county? The reason for the warning is because 4 inches is legitimately possible. Well the point and clicks do different prarts of the county but when they issue warnings and watches they dont split counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 This is one of those systems where having the snow ob in National Park will help verify warning criteria for PHL... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 yeah I'm still having a hard time understanding how all that precip is magically going to shift way SE when the radar looks to be heading due east and the WV loop shows moisture making it pretty far north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Having a little problem with warning criteria. I thought accumulation was over 4". Why would they word it 3-5? Not complaining just wondering. Also, do you have to do a whole county or can they post statements for different geography within a county? 3-5 averages to 4, warnings are based on averages over the zones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 21, 2011 Author Share Posted February 21, 2011 ray, maybe he means that this is a situation where having the obs for the city in the airport would help compared to having it in center city... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 i predict more pink Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 i predict more pink hrrr ftw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 yeah I'm still having a hard time understanding how all that precip is magically going to shift way SE when the radar looks to be heading due east and the WV loop shows moisture making it pretty far north. There is a strong wedge of confluence/drier air. Regardless I still think I would shift things maybe 20 miles north of some guidance that seems a bit south. I think Philly is a safe 3-5, I think Newark, DE is 4-7. Someone in western MD, southern PA, will see 7-11. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 ray, maybe he means that this is a situation where having the obs for the city in the airport would help compared to having it in center city... Ah... gotchya. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 There is a strong wedge of confluence/drier air. Regardless I still think I would shift things maybe 20 miles north of some guidance that seems a bit south. I think Philly is a safe 3-5, I think Newark, DE is 4-7. Someone in western MD, southern PA, will see 7-11. He wants snow way up by him in northern Morris. He should be glad if he gets flurries Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 21, 2011 Author Share Posted February 21, 2011 Ah... gotchya. thats a total guess though lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lady Di Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 The reason for the warning is because 4 inches is legitimately possible. Well the point and clicks do different prarts of the county but when they issue warnings and watches they dont split counties. 3-5 averages to 4, warnings are based on averages over the zones. Thank you both. Geographically it's possible I see 4"+ at home. Located close to Mason Dixon and DE state line. Trying to make decision, plow on or not. Perhaps you would enjoy my obs now: It's cold feels like snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Thank you both. Geographically it's possible I see 4"+ at home. Located close to Mason Dixon and DE state line. Trying to make decision, plow on or not. Perhaps you would enjoy my obs now: It's cold feels like snow. Plow definitely on dude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 He wants snow way up by him in northern Morris. He should be glad if he gets flurries Ahhh now it all makes sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Anyone feel like digging up seasonal snow totals thus far for BWI: ILG: DOV: I'm intrigued (and lazy) since they could get hit the hardest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 yeah I'm still having a hard time understanding how all that precip is magically going to shift way SE when the radar looks to be heading due east and the WV loop shows moisture making it pretty far north. http://www.goes.noaa.gov/GSSLOOPS/ecwv.html Remember that its showing all moisture, including the high level moisture. More important when viewing the loop is that dry air sliding southward from Canada. You won't see that make it to you til tomorrow on the WV loop because of the high clouds overhead, but lower down its gonna make inroads in the precip heading east. You can already see on the local radars how the precip is fighting the dry air and convergence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 21, 2011 Author Share Posted February 21, 2011 Anyone feel like digging up seasonal snow totals thus far for BWI: ILG: DOV: I'm intrigued (and lazy) since they could get hit the hardest. bwi 11.9 ilg 22.3 dov not sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Anyone feel like digging up seasonal snow totals thus far for BWI: ILG: DOV: I'm intrigued (and lazy) since they could get hit the hardest. BWI: 11.9" ILG: 22.3" DOV: 19.4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 bwi 11.9 ilg 22.3 dov not sure Thanks guys. Glad they will get hit directly with this one.BWI ouch! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 thats a total guess though lol You're right. It's not a representative total of the city (as the Airport never is). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Walt Drag monitoring thru 10PM.. we will be looking for NEW snow acc after 4PM today in all snow reports and for those who can helps us out... If there is no location identified under your name... please spot us a community/county. Much thanks, Walt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bilas Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 i predict more pink No love for Burlington county!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Walt Drag monitoring thru 10PM.. we will be looking for NEW snow acc after 4PM today in all snow reports and for those who can helps us out... If there is no location identified under your name... please spot us a community/county. Much thanks, Walt Walt i re-setup my snowboard out in the back yard. And will be reporing my snow amounts when i start taking measurements, I am now back on the active skywarn spotter list as i finally re-attended the skywarn spotter class last week in Rose Tree Fire Hall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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