West Point, NY Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 I will be shocked if this winds up an all SN event in GFL as the NWS depicts. This IMO this is not a good setup to have the cold aloft to hang in enough to prevent at least mixing. You actually have 2 surges of warmth aloft.....1 with todays weak clipper passing to the north and then ahead of the main storm tomorrow. Must be hanging their hat on dynamic cooling I guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 I will be shocked if this winds up an all SN event in GFL as the NWS depicts. This IMO this is not a good setup to have the cold aloft to hang in enough to prevent at least mixing. You actually have 2 surges of warmth aloft.....1 with todays weak clipper passing to the north and then ahead of the main storm tomorrow. Must be hanging their hat on dynamic cooling I guess Yes you're right Jeff but again there will be some strong UVM's too which COULD wipe out any warm layers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 I feel like I'm preaching to the choir but: Other "issues" lower than anticipated Snow ratios and I still say QPF from EC and NAM is too high by and needs to be cut at least 30% maybe even 50% WINDS aloft are SW and stacked, too. HELLO, shades of the Midwest Blizzard a few weeks ago that was a flizzard here. If you have any elevation you may be favored if you don't you won't. I won't come out with a snowfall call until noon today. Too early to come out with any precise numbers and some ofthe numbers that I am seeing out there are NUTS! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dutch Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 with this type of setup, how important will elevation be? several of us are in the "southern hills" south of the thruway where we can be 14-1800 ft in elev. if we were to be marginal for some mixing, will the elevation help or hinder snow totals? I see certain conditions where we warm up quicker than valleys, but others where we stay colder and get more snow (but not much this year) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Elevation is almost always a plus with snow. However, if the storm goes to your west, north or over your proximity, warmer air aloft will eventually win out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 EC calling for 4-6" in Ottawa, Toronto, 6" in Montreal. Winter storm warning out for Montreal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 EC calling for 4-6" in Ottawa, Toronto, 6" in Montreal. Winter storm warning out for Montreal. nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 12z NAM LP positioning looks the same (a tad S maybe), but about 1-2mb stronger. Also, looks like more precip is pushed north into the cold side...not bad. 6z NAM 12z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 NAM is sweet for the southern dacks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 nam = buffalo to 'cuse to southern adirondacks jackpot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 EC calling for 4-6" in Ottawa, Toronto, 6" in Montreal. Winter storm warning out for Montreal. lol they will likely have some pie on their face.....although i guess they still have time to adjust. this is more of the same, storm will pass S and E (even though it shouldnt have ) at this time i'd go with 1-2 in ottawa, maybe 2-4 if you are lucky and it shifts a bit......around 1 or less if you are unlucky. i think they put out a WSW in montreal because they have been burned twice on events this season. we could get 3-6 if we are lucky, but right now itd go 2-4 until all guidance comes out this afternoon and see how the storm is setting up in the MW. again, there is nothing to stop the storm from shifting a bit N and W, so we will have to keep an eye on its as it gets going today in the MW.....as we have seen these type of situations in the past.....although i'm not feeling it with this one as much. highest amounts along the border regions same ole same old ho hum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 nam = buffalo to 'cuse to southern adirondacks jackpot. Haha the clown map has me in for 16 inches lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 RGEM shows a good deal of love....and it's colder than previous runs: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNYwhiteout Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Just once, I'd like to see the clown map verify! I would take even just half of what it spits out for me (8") Haha the clown map has me in for 16 inches lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWeather Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 who's gonna get adventurous and draw a map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted February 24, 2011 Author Share Posted February 24, 2011 who's gonna get adventurous and draw a map? lol, I will after 12z runs are done. I haven't drawn one since that "Major Winter Storm" that wasn't across W NY / C NY when just about everyone busted WAY high... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 env canada is certainly going for some very strong winds! cant say i have been paying attention lol but could make for more interesting weather even if there is only lighter amounts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roady Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Haha the clown map has me in for 16 inches lol. That's some funn sheet right there. We're in the bullseye yet much of the NWS forcast is for rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 An "uncomfortable" first call.... All depends on timing of changeover or mix...also still feel QPF from NWP's are inflated.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted February 24, 2011 Author Share Posted February 24, 2011 BGM did add Steuben into the Watch earlier this AM, but based on 12z runs I'd say Schuyler-Tompkins-Cortland (Mb even N. Chenango- N. Otsego) are sufficiently in the mix for warning-level snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Draxinar Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 lol they will likely have some pie on their face.....although i guess they still have time to adjust. this is more of the same, storm will pass S and E (even though it shouldnt have ) at this time i'd go with 1-2 in ottawa, maybe 2-4 if you are lucky and it shifts a bit......around 1 or less if you are unlucky. i think they put out a WSW in montreal because they have been burned twice on events this season. we could get 3-6 if we are lucky, but right now itd go 2-4 until all guidance comes out this afternoon and see how the storm is setting up in the MW. again, there is nothing to stop the storm from shifting a bit N and W, so we will have to keep an eye on its as it gets going today in the MW.....as we have seen these type of situations in the past.....although i'm not feeling it with this one as much. highest amounts along the border regions same ole same old ho hum. To me it seems getting snow out of this one will be purely academic...if the Euro is to be believed (and from what the other models are also hinting at), there is a deluge on the way. I am not a superstitious man, but these past 2.5 years, as you pointed out.....hell, I may just start to believe... Things were simpler when I didn't look at models....what had to happen happened...but now....even though that is still the case...good lord the pain!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 To me it seems getting snow out of this one will be purely academic...if the Euro is to be believed (and from what the other models are also hinting at), there is a deluge on the way. I am not a superstitious man, but these past 2.5 years, as you pointed out.....hell, I may just start to believe... Things were simpler when I didn't look at models....what had to happen happened...but now....even though that is still the case...good lord the pain!!! strongly strongly agree with your sentiment Draxinar. good luck to those further south where it will be a bigger deal. but up here, i could hardly be bothered with a few inches of snow knowing that a flooding deluge is on the way (most likely). rather pointless for my personal taste since i am into snowdepths, which is well lost cause. and yes, would love to take this winter out back.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 For the experts here: For me in Sullivan County's Liberty NY, am I better off, worse than or about the same with snow potential as I was 12 hours ago? Thanks!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FEFD17 Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 An "uncomfortable" first call.... All depends on timing of changeover or mix...also still feel QPF from NWP's are inflated.... Andy you are the best.I just hope you are way low on your totals......LOL..I can only hope..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Andy you are the best.I just hope you are way low on your totals......LOL..I can only hope..... I don't like to be wrong. I take it personally! ;-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWeather Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 My local met's call: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 My local met's call: BK? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWeather Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Yep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Yep I ve been chatting with him all AM. He used to weather produce here....at WTEN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWeather Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 I ve been chatting with him all AM. He used to weather produce here....at WTEN He's a nice guy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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