Organizing Low Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 In the spirit of tax season let's break down SYR's total from NAM, which should be quite similar (with a few variances) up and down the thruway: At first glance SYR does great....1.00+ qpf....pretty much all snow on the profiles.....now for the deductions: -35% of total...(standard NAM deduction) -10% for a bit of mixing because there will inevitabily be SOME warm layer making it up this way and of course sun angle this time of year. -20% for potential down sloping/shadowing. - 20% for unexpected dry slot after the down sloping -10% because SYR can't have a synoptic snowfall above 3" more than once in a season.... so that leaves about 5% of the total qpf which equates to around .05...and at a sloppy 8:1 ratio, look for SYR and similar Thruway locales to dig out from a solid .4-.8" of slop. Enjoy everyone! Should be fun! j/k........mostly.......I think............... lmao Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted February 24, 2011 Author Share Posted February 24, 2011 0z GFS looks a couple miles north, not much. Looks a bit warmer though. I have to say that the current WS Watch outline from BUF-BGM-ALY looks spot-on based on the 0z NAM and GFS. Could make a case that Steuben and Schuyler could be added in, but need to see the rest of the 0z runs first. State College definately over-extended their watch package too far east / south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdoug Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 My latest forecast has been posted for those in the Binghamton area.... Click here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdoug Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 0z GFS looks a couple miles north, not much. Looks a bit warmer though. I have to say that the current WS Watch outline from BUF-BGM-ALY looks spot-on based on the 0z NAM and GFS. Could make a case that Steuben and Schuyler could be added in, but need to see the rest of the 0z runs first. State College definately over-extended their watch package too far east / south. I would not be surprised to see Schuyler/Steuben, and even Tompkins/Cortland placed in the watch... it is a very close call though. This area seems to have the highest bust potential. I basically went about 4-9 inches in those areas with my 11pm weathercast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Well, 6-12 inches of snow is looking like a good bet for extreme northern Oneida, Lewis, Jefferson, Herkimer, and Hamilton counties. The higher your elevation the better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted February 24, 2011 Author Share Posted February 24, 2011 Well, 6-12 inches of snow is looking like a good bet for extreme northern Oneida, Lewis, Jefferson, Herkimer, and Hamilton counties. I concur. I have a prelim accumulation forecast drawn up but waiting on the rest of the 0z models first. 0z GEFS... wish could see 6-hour intervals... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Logan, could you post the website where you view those GFS ensembles... they look much snowier for the Western NY region than the OP run! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Logan, could you post the website where you view those GFS ensembles... they look much snowier for the Western NY region than the OP run! http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted February 24, 2011 Author Share Posted February 24, 2011 Logan, could you post the website where you view those GFS ensembles... they look much snowier for the Western NY region than the OP run! Yeah, here is the link... its a good site to bookmark in favorites. http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted February 24, 2011 Author Share Posted February 24, 2011 0z GEFS... wish could see 6-hour intervals... Ha... just realized SV has the GEFS mean in 6 hour intervals. H42 has the 988mb LP just south of Albany. The 540dm line runs from Corning-Syracuse-Just N of GFL... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted February 24, 2011 Author Share Posted February 24, 2011 Woah... 0z Canadian looks way colder and a little bit south. The 850 0°C line looks like it stays south of BGM-ALY... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Thanks guys... New to the board here! First storm posting! Looking good in Buffalo for some nice snows. Prelim guesstimate: 8-12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 0z cmc looks nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ENYsnow Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 0z cmc looks nice hmm that map doesn't seem to agree with this one, odd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted February 24, 2011 Author Share Posted February 24, 2011 Woah... 0z Canadian looks way colder and a little bit south. The 850 0°C line looks like it stays south of BGM-ALY... Yes sir... not sure buy it though. But have to say the Canadian would be the last model I'd expect to be this cold at 850mb... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 hmm that map doesn't seem to agree with this one, odd. yeh weird lol.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted February 24, 2011 Author Share Posted February 24, 2011 hmm that map doesn't seem to agree with this one, odd. Just had a closer look at both of them and I see where the discrepancy is. First, the image he posted is H39 and the e-wall image is H42. The liquid / frozen line on the regional model uses the 540dm line as the changeover line, hence why it pushes the rain line further north. That algorithm might not be best representitive in this circumstance because it can snow with thicknesses >540 under the right conditions. I think in this instance, I would tend to favor the 850mb 0°C line over the 540 line as the demarcation between RA / SN... Here's a comparison to illustrate the 540dm line as the mix line at Hour 42... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ENYsnow Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Just had a closer look at both of them and I see where the discrepancy is. First, the image he posted is H39 and the e-wall image is H42. The liquid / frozen line on the regional model uses the 540dm line as the changeover line, hence why it pushes the rain line further north. Here's a good comparison to illustrate the 540dm line as the mix line at Hour 42... thanks yeah it looked like the low placement was off too but i guess one is just more zoomed in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Just had a closer look at both of them and I see where the discrepancy is. First, the image he posted is H39 and the e-wall image is H42. The liquid / frozen line on the regional model uses the 540dm line as the changeover line, hence why it pushes the rain line further north. Here's a good comparison to illustrate the 540dm line as the mix line at Hour 42... that track would just crush Rochester and Buffalo. But I don't know. I've never seen a track like that with mix in the southern tier that doesn't immediately transfer or even before to the I-90 zone. Just sayin. Doesn't seem realistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted February 24, 2011 Author Share Posted February 24, 2011 thanks yeah it looked like the low placement was off too but i guess one is just more zoomed in. Yea, the regional level is a more accurate depiction of the LP placement. E-wall 'L' placement can be misleading at times... 0z ECM is out thru H54. Just looking now, looks a little south of 12z... more to follow shortly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ENYsnow Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Yea, the regional level is a more accurate depiction of the LP placement. E-wall 'L' placement can be misleading at times... 0z ECM is out thru H54. Just looking now, looks a little south of 12z... more to follow shortly. yeah it looks very similar to the nam/gfs maybe we have a consensus forming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 that track would just crush Rochester and Buffalo. But I don't know. I've never seen a track like that with mix in the southern tier that doesn't immediately transfer or even before to the I-90 zone. Just sayin. Doesn't seem realistic. don paul is going with 4-7" for both Buffalo and Rochester.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted February 24, 2011 Author Share Posted February 24, 2011 Alright, 0z ECM is 4mb weaker and just a bit south of 12z run. Takes the LP along I-80 by looks which also leads to a little bit colder temp's, most noticeably at the surface. QPF looks like it could be a little less than 12z. The Western S Tier is crushed hard though, moreso than before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted February 24, 2011 Author Share Posted February 24, 2011 Alright, here's the 0z ECM qpf. Very sharp gradient over W NY... Draw a line thru Elmira-Norwich-Cooperstown-Saratoga Springs and that looks to be a rough estimate for an all-snow line based on the depiction in the 6-hour intervals... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted February 24, 2011 Author Share Posted February 24, 2011 Taking all the 0z runs into consideration, BGM would be justified to add Steuben-Schuyler-Tompkins-Cortland into the Watch outline IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 don paul is going with 4-7" for both Buffalo and Rochester.. Um, who is don paul? RocDave [email protected] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 WIBV's meteorologist.. his reasoning is his stupid microcast says sleet all the way up to Toronto! he said his microcast has done incredible this winter and has to go lower than NWS Um, who is don paul? RocDave [email protected] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted February 24, 2011 Author Share Posted February 24, 2011 O these models... 6z NAM keeps BGM to ALY all frozen with the surface 32°F line south of the area, though it's likely not snowing with the 546dm line north of the Surface 32 line, atleast for a short time. Tricky setup... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 7 PM EST FRIDAY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ALBANY HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 7 PM EST FRIDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. * LOCATIONS...WESTERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY...THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AND THE LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION. * HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW. * ACCUMULATIONS...6 TO 12 INCHES...WITH UP TO 15 INCHES ACROSS THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. * TIMING...SNOW DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT...AND CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF FRIDAY EVENING. * IMPACTS...VERY HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS DUE TO SNOW COVERED ROADS AND POOR VISIBILITY. SNOWFALL RATES WILL LIKELY EXCEED ONE INCH PER HOUR ON FRIDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 6z gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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