Wx4cast Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 I agree....But this has been a strange La Nina winter...during a La Nina we generally see fewer coastal storms and more Alberta Clippers than normal....but not this winter. And more LES too but not this winter. ;-) :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted February 23, 2011 Author Share Posted February 23, 2011 Wonder what the vegas line is on this forecast verifying... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted February 23, 2011 Author Share Posted February 23, 2011 Wow... 18z NAM is way north... 992mb over Bradford PA... everyone south of I-90 is getting deluged at H45... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted February 23, 2011 Author Share Posted February 23, 2011 992mb directly over BGM at H48. Rain / Snow line is north of I-90 from I-81 / East. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted February 23, 2011 Author Share Posted February 23, 2011 BUF-ROC-ART are sufficiently swiffered with warning-level snows this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted February 23, 2011 Author Share Posted February 23, 2011 Winter Storm Watch for the entire BUF cwa for 6+... URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 330 PM EST WED FEB 23 2011 NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-WYOMING-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-SOUTHERN ERIE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NIAGARA FALLS...MEDINA...ROCHESTER...NEWARK...FAIR HAVEN...OSWEGO... WATERTOWN... LOWVILLE...BUFFALO...BATAVIA...WARSAW...GENESEO...CANANDAIGUA...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN...WELLSVILLE... ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. * LOCATIONS...ALL OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK. * TIMING...FROM EARLY FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. * HAZARDS...HEAVY WET SNOW. * ACCUMULATIONS...POTENTIAL FOR 6 TO 10 INCHES. * WINDS...NORTHEAST 10 TO 20 MPH BACKING TO NORTH DURING FRIDAY. * VISIBILITIES...TO NEAR ONE QUARTER MILE IN HEAVIER SNOW. * TEMPERATURES...NEAR FREEZING AT FIRST...FALLING SLOWLY INTO THE 20S. * IMPACTS...A SLOW FRIDAY MORNING COMMUTE. * FORECASTER CONFIDENCE...HIGH SOUTHERN TIER TO FINGER LAKES...MEDIUM BUFFALO TO ROCHESTER AND NORTH COUNTRY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Any more north and this is gonna get ugly for BUF-ROC-ART...never a dull moment for storms this year... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNYLakeEffect Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Well the NAM isn't too promising for this: * FORECASTER CONFIDENCE...HIGH SOUTHERN TIER TO FINGER LAKES...MEDIUM BUFFALO TO ROCHESTER AND NORTH COUNTRY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Yea......Sleetfest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted February 23, 2011 Author Share Posted February 23, 2011 WS Watch for North Central NY for 6+... URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 339 PM EST WED FEB 23 2011 ...HEAVY WET SNOW POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY... NORTHERN ONEIDA-YATES-SENECA-SOUTHERN CAYUGA-ONONDAGA-MADISON-SOUTHERN ONEIDA- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BOONVILLE...PENN YAN...SENECA FALLS...AUBURN...SYRACUSE...ONEIDA...UTICA...ROME THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BINGHAMTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. * LOCATIONS: FINGER LAKES, SYRACUSE AREA, WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHERN TUG HILL PLATEAU. * HAZARDS: HEAVY WET SNOW. * ACCUMULATIONS: SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLY REACHING 6 TO 9 INCHES. * TIMING: FRIDAY. * TEMPERATURES: LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S. * WINDS: NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH BECOMING NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 25 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON. * IMPACTS: DIFFICULT TRAVEL POSSIBLE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 4 some reason kbgm is going with all snow for kuca..They also have wsw now Thursday Night: Snow likely, mainly after 3am. Cloudy, with a low around 28. South wind between 4 and 7 mph becoming calm. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of around an inch possible. Friday: Snow. High near 33. North wind between 6 and 13 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 the models (18z NAM aside due to instability) today seem to indicate a light to moderate snowfall up here. light in ottawa to potentially moderate as you head S and E towards montreal and the border. once again, the pattern remains open for adjustments N and W if the energy wants to cooperate. right now we are seeing a positive tilt, fairly low amplitude wave crossing the continent. the energy though is still offshore (coming onshore). i believe by 00z models and certainly by 12z tomorrow, we will get a better handle on things..... as the speed, amplitude and strength of the energy and only the energy itself, will be the key in dictating where the storm ultimately heads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 A lot of max QPF hugging going on... Caution: Temper your excitement! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ENYsnow Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Yea......Sleetfest I'll enjoy my 40 degree rain while the the snowpack dissapears. bring on spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Well the NAM isn't too promising for this: the 0c line is killing us this winter so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted February 23, 2011 Author Share Posted February 23, 2011 Looks like CTP and BGM aren't quite seeing eye-to-eye based on the WS Watch alignment for 6+. I think CTP a little too aggressive IMO, specially given the trends at 12z... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avid6eek Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 I'll enjoy my 40 degree rain while the the snowpack dissapears. bring on spring. Ditto...the storm early next week is going to be well above freezing, so no need to go adding 6+" of slop on friday. It will just be a PITA to shovel and then it will disappear 2 days later. No thanks. The sun is strong enough now to melt the snowpack even when temps remain in the teens..I'm done with winter and am looking forward to some warmth. Bring on hurricane season! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 A lot of max QPF hugging going on... Caution: Temper your excitement! Yea......Sleetfest, dryslot, drizzle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 We don't get hurricanes here. And spring skiing is the best invention since peanut butter n jelly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 If this thing spins up more than the models are predicting, then all of WNY may be in for a sleet-dryslot-drizzle combo! How fun! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGHFRIDAY EVENING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ALBANY HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. * LOCATIONS...WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION AND ALL OF SOUTHERN VERMONT. * HAZARD TYPES...SNOW...POSSIBLY HEAVY AT TIMES. * ACCUMULATIONS...6 TO 10 INCHES OF SNOW...LOCALLY GREATER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. * TIMING...THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. * IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVELING CONDITIONS AND POOR VISIBILITIES. POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 KALB pretty optimistic lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ENYsnow Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 KALB pretty optimistic lol that map seems a little suspect. i guess they are really playing up the elevation dependency of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StotaRattler Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 A lot of max QPF hugging going on... Caution: Temper your excitement! Well said, Andy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ENYsnow Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 the 18z RGEM agrees with the 18z nam on a washout for the southern half of NYS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Yea......Sleetfest, dryslot, drizzle No dryslot here... Not too sure about sleet either. Profiles look quite isothermal (I haven't checked 18z data/ones yet). Ptype will be intensity driven. Also Snow to H20 ratios probably 10 to 1 even 8:1 perhaps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 that map seems a little suspect. i guess they are really playing up the elevation dependency of the storm. Will be some shadowing too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 KALB THU NT/FRI...VERY TRICKY SCENARIO UNFOLDING...AS LOW PRESSUREDEVELOPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WED IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE...CURRENTLY HEADING E TOWARD BAJA CALIFORNIA. THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE REMAINS IN A SOMEWHAT DATA SPARSE AREA FOR UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS...SO CONFIDENCE LEVELS IN ANY ONE MODEL SOLUTION WILL SHOULD STILL BE TAKEN SOMEWHAT LIGHTLY. HOWEVER...THERE SEEMS TO BE GROWING CONSENSUS WITHIN THE 12Z MODEL SUITE...AND 15Z SREFS...THAT A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HVY PRECIP AFFECTS MUCH OF THE REGION FRIDAY THERMALPROFILES SUGGEST MOST PRECIP STARTS AS SNOW...WITH A TRANSITION TO A SLEET/FREEZING RAIN MIX...THEN RAIN BY LATE FRI MORNING ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER ELEVATIONS WITHIN NW CT...AS WELL AS POSSIBLY THE BERKSHIRES AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN TACONICS. FURTHER N AND W...SOMEWHAT DEEPER COLD AIR MAY HOLD ON...AND THIS...COMBINED WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL FORCING SHOULD KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE COLD ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN MORE SNOW FROM THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY NORTHWARD ACROSS THE DACKS...AND SOUTHERN VT. IT IS IN THIS REGION THAT CONFIDENCE LEVELS CONTINUE TO INCREASE THAT HEAVY SNOW MAY OCCUR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 18z gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 18z RGEM just crushes WNY 12+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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