Gorizer Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 BGM: AS OF THIS TIME THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A WARM WEDGE ALOFT, HOPEFULLY PREVENTING SLEET AND/OR FREEZING RAIN WORKING INTO THE MIX. ALY: SNOW ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY NIGHT...AND BEGIN TO MIX WITH SLEET AND FZRA FOR SOUTHERN AREAS BY SUNRISE ON FRIDAY. BGM has changed Friday's forecast around here from the U30's and RA / SN to 33°F and SN. AFD update... AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 316 AM EST WED FEB 23 2011 SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... ...RMNDR OF THE SHORT TERM IS SHAPING UP TO BE A MESS. EXPECT PCPN WL BEGIN TO MAKE AN APPEARANCE FM WEST TO EAST AFT 18Z THURSDAY. THINK MOST OF THE PCPN WL HOLD OFF UNTIL CLOSER TO 21Z BUT HV SPED UP TIMING FOR COLLABORATION PURPOSES AND IF SOME LGT ECHOES CAN BREAK OUT AHD OF THE FRONTAL BNDRY. PCPN EXPECTED TO INCRS IN CVRG AFT 00Z FRIDAY AS MS VLY LOW BEGINS TO MV NORTH AND EAST TWD THE REGION, RIDING ALONG STALLED OUT FRONTAL BNDRY. ULTIMATE TRACK OF WV WL DEPEND ON WHERE BAROCLINIC ZONE STALLS OUT. 00Z EC HAS NOT BUDGED AT ALL FM ITS PREVIOUS RUN AND RMNS FURTHEST NORTH WITH THE LOW TRACK. RMNG MODELS (INCLUDING ALL GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS) ARE CLUSTERED ALONG THE MASON-DIXON LINE. EVEN WITH THIS FURTHER SOUTH TRACK ALL GUIDANCE INDICATES A FAIRLY ISOTHERMAL BL THUR NGT INTO FRIDAY MRNG. THIS WUD RESULT IN A GNRL MIX OF RAIN/SNOW DEPENDING ON TEMP PROFILES IN THE LOWEST LAYERS. BASED ON FCST SFC TEMPS HV GONE WITH PLAIN RAIN INTO THE EVNG HRS ACRS THE FINGER LKS WITH CHC FOR RA/SN RMNDR OF CWA. SHUD SEE MORE OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX BY MIDNIGHT WITH NRLY FLOW FILTERING IN CLDR AIR AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY, EXPECT MAINLY SNOW FM THE NYPENN BORDER NORTH WITH RAIN AND SNOW FURTHER SOUTH. AS TEMPS WARM FRI MRNG, CUD SEE MORE RAIN MIXING IN WITH SNOW BFR CLDR AIR SEEPING IN FRI AFTN BRINGS A CHANGEOVER TO MOSTLY SNOW BFR PCPN COMES TO AN END. HV TRIED TO REFLECT THIS TIMING IN THE GRIDS THO FINER DETAILS RMN UP IN THE AIR. AS OF THIS TIME THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A WARM WEDGE ALOFT, HOPEFULLY PREVENTING SLEET AND/OR FREEZING RAIN WORKING INTO THE MIX. STORM TOTAL SNOW FM 00Z FRI-00Z SAT LOOKS TO BE ALMOST ON PAR WITH HPC SNOW GRID OF 4-6 INCHES NORTH OF THE NY BORDER, AND 1-3 INCHES FURTHER SOUTH. NORTHWARD EXTENT OF PCPN IS STILL IN QUESTION AS GFS KEEPS A VRY TIGHT GRADIENT OF SNOW/NO SNOW NORTH OF THE SUSQUEHANNA REGION ON FRIDAY COURTESY OF NW FLOW AND DRIER AIR. THUS, HV GONE WITH JUST LKLY POPS FRI MRNG ACRS THE FAR NORTH WITH CATEGORICAL FURTHER TO THE SOUTH. HV ALSO INDICATED THIS GRADIENT BY SLIGHTLY LWR SNOW AMNTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdoug Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Here's my 2 cents... still sticking with the euro... the srefs, gfs, and nam have continued to trend closer to the euro... thus i'm thinking rain and warmer temps... if the euro begins to trend toward the gfs/nam camp on the 12z run then i'll do more of a compromise solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Since my last SWFE "take" turn into an epic fail....I'll just post a chart or two with some emoticons!: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNYwhiteout Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 That would be Epic Awesome if that panned out! Since my last SWFE "take" turn into an epic fail....I'll just post a chart or two with some emoticons!: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Could this be the synoptic snowstorm WNY has been waiting for all winter? We shall see... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 NAM qpf went from .5 inches to upwards of 2 inches for the southern tier. Seems very suspicious to me. It is deepening the storm system rapidly compared to other models. I am thinking .75 qpf across most of WNY most being snow, with some mixing occurring at state line. Who knows though, the models are allllll over the place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Not getting my hopes up at all untill after I see the 12z runs tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Not getting my hopes up at all untill after I see the 12z runs tomorrow. watch that 0c line creep north and give us a mix Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ENYsnow Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 man the GFS is still well south of other guidance.. edit maybe not well south but still the southernmost solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted February 23, 2011 Author Share Posted February 23, 2011 Since my last SWFE "take" turn into an epic fail....I'll just post a chart or two with some emoticons!: Haha, nice. Suddenly the Euro's widespread 1.00-1.25 QPF doesn't look so impressive... Here is a zoomed-in version... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 12z Canadian obliterates someone in Upstate area....depending on R/S/mixing line(s) are.....waiting for the pretty color maps....should be lots of yellows and oranges. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 NAM qpf went from .5 inches to upwards of 2 inches for the southern tier. Seems very suspicious to me. It is deepening the storm system rapidly compared to other models. I am thinking .75 qpf across most of WNY most being snow, with some mixing occurring at state line. Who knows though, the models are allllll over the place. Haha, nice. Suddenly the Euro's widespread 1.00-1.25 QPF doesn't look so impressive... Here is a zoomed-in version... Using the NAM I ran a simple technique for QPF that i like to use. It produces much less only .5 inches. Again the winds aloft are stacked SW QP WILL BE LESS than NAM indicates! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted February 23, 2011 Author Share Posted February 23, 2011 12z Canadian obliterates someone in Upstate area....depending on R/S/mixing line(s) are.....waiting for the pretty color maps....should be lots of yellows and oranges. Wow... way north / west. Open up the flood gates south of I-90... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 I'll take the Canadian's track in KROC... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 HPC saying go west young man. MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 1107 AM EST WED FEB 23 2011 VALID FEB 23/1200 UTC THRU FEB 27/0000 UTC ...SEE NOUS42 KWNO ADMNFD FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR INGEST... 12Z/23 NAM AND GFS EVALUATIONS ANY INITIALIZATION ERRORS WITH THE NAM AND GFS DO NOT APPEAR TO SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT THEIR SOLUTIONS. ...DISJOINTED WAVE CROSSING THE MIDWEST DAY 1... THE NAM HANDLES THIS SYSTEM COMPARABLY TO THE 00Z/23 ECMWF. ...CYCLONE TRACKING UP THE OHIO VALLEY DAY 2... THE NAM IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH THIS LOW THAN THE 00Z/23 ECMWF. THE GFS TRACKS THE SYSTEM SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE NAM AND ECMWF...BRINGING THE SURFACE CENTER OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF WEST VIRGINIA BY 12Z/25 FRIDAY. DEEP LOWS RARELY CENTER ON THE SPINE OF MAJOR MOUNTAIN RANGES...SO SUSPECT THAT THE LOW WILL STICK CLOSER TO THE OHIO RIVER...AS PER THE NAM/EC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted February 23, 2011 Author Share Posted February 23, 2011 12z GEFS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 I'll take the Canadian's track in KROC... same here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted February 23, 2011 Author Share Posted February 23, 2011 12z Euro is 4mb deeper and slightly north / west of 0z run, but is also a tad colder. North Central NY thru the Dacks is crushed at H54... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 12z Euro is 4mb deeper and slightly north / west of 0z run, but is also a tad colder. North Central NY thru the Dacks is crushed at H54... Awaiting anxiously for your hand drawn qpf map! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 12z Euro is 4mb deeper and slightly north / west of 0z run, but is also a tad colder. North Central NY thru the Dacks is crushed at H54... can you post the qpf map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted February 23, 2011 Author Share Posted February 23, 2011 12z Euro track is 992mb over chimney of WV at H48, then 988mb over Monticello NY at H54. I would say the all snow line runs roughly from BUF-SYR-GFL. Stand by for QPF map... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ENYsnow Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 12z Euro is 4mb deeper and slightly north / west of 0z run, but is also a tad colder. North Central NY thru the Dacks is crushed at H54... yeah looks like the northern extent of the 0C 850's is from ELM-UCA-GFL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted February 23, 2011 Author Share Posted February 23, 2011 Alright, here is the 12z ECM QPF... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 I might get a good snowfall out of this after all....But If the MV want's snow, we need this to stay a little more to the south. If I comes any more to the north CNY will have warm air issues..........I don't like the looks of the Monday storm....We could see a lot of melting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Anyone else getting sick of these SWFE's??? How about a good old fashioned 5-8" clipper or a series of them.....or a nice full latitude EC storm that cuts across LI into CNE (adjust according to your needs).... Those events, generally speaking will give us a decent 2 or 3 days notice if we are going to have warm layer issues.... From a forecasting standpoint, these SW events suck..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Alright, here is the 12z ECM QPF... thx! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ENYsnow Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Anyone else getting sick of these SWFE's??? How about a good old fashioned 5-8" clipper or a series of them.....or a nice full latitude EC storm that cuts across LI into CNE (adjust according to your needs).... Those events, generally speaking will give us a decent 2 or 3 days notice if we are going to have warm layer issues.... From a forecasting standpoint, these SW events suck..... agreed. there hasn't been one event this year where we weren't either on the fringe of precipitation or the fringe of the mixing line here.. this looks to be no different. your in a better spot than us around ALB for this one I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Anyone else getting sick of these SWFE's??? How about a good old fashioned 5-8" clipper or a series of them.....or a nice full latitude EC storm that cuts across LI into CNE (adjust according to your needs).... Those events, generally speaking will give us a decent 2 or 3 days notice if we are going to have warm layer issues.... From a forecasting standpoint, these SW events suck..... I agree....But this has been a strange La Nina winter...during a La Nina we generally see fewer coastal storms and more Alberta Clippers than normal....but not this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted February 23, 2011 Author Share Posted February 23, 2011 Alright, I can't post the originals off Storm Vista, and not sure if this is exactly legal either, but I hand-drew some Euro maps for you guys. Hopefully they come out readable... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Well I would expect KBUF to hoist WSWs for a bunch of counties in their afternoon package...there's enough evidence to go for it. Whether this one pulls too much warm north or not is still to be determined... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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