CNYWxGuy Posted February 23, 2011 Author Share Posted February 23, 2011 Looking at the latest nam made me remember to think about dynamic cooling with this system too... Good point, especially when looking at the period of 72-78 on the ECM which has significant QPF of >.50" west of the 540dm / 850 0c lines. The penn state ewall has better gfx imo... esp for the regional zooms... Nother good point. I use Storm Vista for the NAM / GFS / ECM which has regional zooms to the county-level along with 3hr time steps like e-wall, as well as some other neat features, but the images are proprietary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdoug Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Good point, especially when looking at the period of 72-78 on the ECM which has significant QPF of >.50" west of the 540dm / 850 0c lines. Nother good point. I use Storm Vista for the NAM / GFS / ECM which has regional zooms to the county-level like e-wall along with some other neat features, but the images are proprietary. Sounds like my euro data... i can see it and write what I see... but I'd end up in a heap of trouble if i posted the gfx... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted February 23, 2011 Author Share Posted February 23, 2011 0z NAM QPF... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdoug Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Looking at the ptype on the 9z/15z/21z srefs means now... looks like a thin sliver of an area for ip... all the key temps/thickness indicators are almost on top of each other... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted February 23, 2011 Author Share Posted February 23, 2011 0z GFS already off to a good start with a 6hr period of .40" QPF near BGM of what appears to be some sort of over-running snow before the main event even arrives... not sure buy it though... 540dm / Surface 32° line just a bit north though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted February 23, 2011 Author Share Posted February 23, 2011 Lmao... this is just redic. Just no give at all in the OP GFS... Folks along parts of I-90 can expect anything from flurries to a driving rain storm and .10 to 1.00+ of QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Very different system, but it reminds me of the angst before the so called snow cane system late last February in terms of p-type. Isothermal profile and the tighest squeeze for snow vs. rain. Why can't we have one nice clear cut big snowstorm? LOL Of course last years event worked out great here, but 18 hours with the RN/SN line 8 miles away..... Looking at the ptype on the 9z/15z/21z srefs means now... looks like a thin sliver of an area for ip... all the key temps/thickness indicators are almost on top of each other... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdoug Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 GFS is creeping in the direction of the euro this evening... each run since 12z has trended NW.... check the difference in qpf... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Trust me this is where we would want it at this range. If it had the heaviest snow over us now the reality would probably end up being over Organizing Low. IMO the Euro will come south a bit...GFS north a bit. The NAM track looks sensible. I don't see this as being amplified enough to pull a low up over Albany, but I can buy a track over coastal SNE. Lmao... this is just redic. Just no give at all in the OP GFS... Folks along parts of I-90 can expect anything from flurries to a driving rain storm and .10 to 1.00+ of QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 I've been working on Taxes; so, I haven't been paying as much attention as I normally would. That said, The Models are still all over the place with the track of this surface low; this is bringing a lot of uncertainty to the forecast table. But the one thing they're not doing is flip flopping around. GFS, NAM, and GGEM are tracking south. whereas the ECMWF, and UKMET have a more northward track. the Euro and UK have been very precedent with the track for the last few days. The GFS and NAM are running the coldest solution. The UK and Canadian the warmest with the Euro in the middle. Based on what I'm seeing I think the area south of I-90 down to the PA border well see more snow than the northern part of NYS. A thin path of mix precp looks to run through State College PA with rain south of that. I know this is not part of the forum. But, it's my major weather love. Anyway, I wanted to bring up the fact that there will be a lot of vertical and directional shear will be more than enough for rotating updrafts...So we could see a few supercells and tornadoes in the parts of the southern plains and Dixie Alley. it might be a thing to keep an eye on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 BTW...I see some of the Twin Tiers area got their best storm of the season the other day. People I know in Wellsboro, PA got a foot and my cousins in Andover (@ 2300') near Allegany/Steuben line claim they got 17 inches! A meager 3 inches here.... GFS is creeping in the direction of the euro this evening... each run since 12z has trended NW.... check the difference in qpf... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdoug Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 BTW...I see some of the Twin Tiers area got their best storm of the season the other day. People I know in Wellsboro, PA got a foot and my cousins in Andover (@ 2300') near Allegany/Steuben line claim they got 17 inches! A meager 3 inches here.... Yep... i got a measly 4.5" at my place... and a 10:1 ratio... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 I'm sure the ratio was 15-1 here.... But at least it put down some base on the frozen hard old stuff for snow shoeing.... I retained about a foot on average of the old stuff in the woods. Yep... i got a measly 4.5" at my place... and a 10:1 ratio... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Let's hope the GFS is full of it for the 120 to 144 hour storm.... I won't even show the map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 I'm predicting a miss for Ottawa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 I'm predicting a miss for Ottawa. would be a nice way to continue continuity pretty awful if it happens based on the pattern. seasonal trends FTW! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 JB has tweeted that he thinks the GFS is too far south with the storm. http://twitter.com/bigjoebastardi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted February 23, 2011 Author Share Posted February 23, 2011 The 0z ECM has initialized... fingers crossed... Here was the 0z GFS Ens Mean... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted February 23, 2011 Author Share Posted February 23, 2011 0z Canadian looks like it moved n / w just a bit. Likely to be some rain in this solution for southern / eastern sections verbatim... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted February 23, 2011 Author Share Posted February 23, 2011 0z ECM looks fairly close to 12z run. Looks a tad colder and perhaps a little southeast... but we're talking mere miles here, nothing really note worthy. 12z had the LP down to 988mb over Hunter NY and the 0z run has a broad 992mb low with the center somewhere near the NY-MA-CT triple point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted February 23, 2011 Author Share Posted February 23, 2011 0z ECM qpf... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted February 23, 2011 Author Share Posted February 23, 2011 0z UK is the furthest n / w of the operational models that I've seen, certainly north of the ECM... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 6z nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 6z NAM is a monster for the I-88/Nway corridor and VT...big snows for the ski areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted February 23, 2011 Author Share Posted February 23, 2011 Talk about a QPF-grenade... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted February 23, 2011 Author Share Posted February 23, 2011 BGM has changed Friday's forecast around here from the U30's and RA / SN to 33°F and SN. AFD update... AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 316 AM EST WED FEB 23 2011 SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... ...RMNDR OF THE SHORT TERM IS SHAPING UP TO BE A MESS. EXPECT PCPN WL BEGIN TO MAKE AN APPEARANCE FM WEST TO EAST AFT 18Z THURSDAY. THINK MOST OF THE PCPN WL HOLD OFF UNTIL CLOSER TO 21Z BUT HV SPED UP TIMING FOR COLLABORATION PURPOSES AND IF SOME LGT ECHOES CAN BREAK OUT AHD OF THE FRONTAL BNDRY. PCPN EXPECTED TO INCRS IN CVRG AFT 00Z FRIDAY AS MS VLY LOW BEGINS TO MV NORTH AND EAST TWD THE REGION, RIDING ALONG STALLED OUT FRONTAL BNDRY. ULTIMATE TRACK OF WV WL DEPEND ON WHERE BAROCLINIC ZONE STALLS OUT. 00Z EC HAS NOT BUDGED AT ALL FM ITS PREVIOUS RUN AND RMNS FURTHEST NORTH WITH THE LOW TRACK. RMNG MODELS (INCLUDING ALL GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS) ARE CLUSTERED ALONG THE MASON-DIXON LINE. EVEN WITH THIS FURTHER SOUTH TRACK ALL GUIDANCE INDICATES A FAIRLY ISOTHERMAL BL THUR NGT INTO FRIDAY MRNG. THIS WUD RESULT IN A GNRL MIX OF RAIN/SNOW DEPENDING ON TEMP PROFILES IN THE LOWEST LAYERS. BASED ON FCST SFC TEMPS HV GONE WITH PLAIN RAIN INTO THE EVNG HRS ACRS THE FINGER LKS WITH CHC FOR RA/SN RMNDR OF CWA. SHUD SEE MORE OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX BY MIDNIGHT WITH NRLY FLOW FILTERING IN CLDR AIR AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY, EXPECT MAINLY SNOW FM THE NYPENN BORDER NORTH WITH RAIN AND SNOW FURTHER SOUTH. AS TEMPS WARM FRI MRNG, CUD SEE MORE RAIN MIXING IN WITH SNOW BFR CLDR AIR SEEPING IN FRI AFTN BRINGS A CHANGEOVER TO MOSTLY SNOW BFR PCPN COMES TO AN END. HV TRIED TO REFLECT THIS TIMING IN THE GRIDS THO FINER DETAILS RMN UP IN THE AIR. AS OF THIS TIME THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A WARM WEDGE ALOFT, HOPEFULLY PREVENTING SLEET AND/OR FREEZING RAIN WORKING INTO THE MIX. STORM TOTAL SNOW FM 00Z FRI-00Z SAT LOOKS TO BE ALMOST ON PAR WITH HPC SNOW GRID OF 4-6 INCHES NORTH OF THE NY BORDER, AND 1-3 INCHES FURTHER SOUTH. NORTHWARD EXTENT OF PCPN IS STILL IN QUESTION AS GFS KEEPS A VRY TIGHT GRADIENT OF SNOW/NO SNOW NORTH OF THE SUSQUEHANNA REGION ON FRIDAY COURTESY OF NW FLOW AND DRIER AIR. THUS, HV GONE WITH JUST LKLY POPS FRI MRNG ACRS THE FAR NORTH WITH CATEGORICAL FURTHER TO THE SOUTH. HV ALSO INDICATED THIS GRADIENT BY SLIGHTLY LWR SNOW AMNTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted February 23, 2011 Author Share Posted February 23, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted February 23, 2011 Author Share Posted February 23, 2011 BUF... AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 328 AM EST WED FEB 23 2011 SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... ...AS THIS FEATURE SINKS SOUTH OF THE AREA...THERE LOOKS TO BE A VERY BRIEF BREAK BEFORE THE NEXT POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM WORKS NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE FRONT FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE RATHER LARGE MODEL SPREAD CONTINUES WITH THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW...RESULTING IN A HIGH FORECAST UNCERTAINTY. AT THIS POINT HPC FAVORING A MODEL BLEND SOLUTION. WE WILL SUGGEST A TRACK IN BETWEEN THE MORE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN GFS/NAM/SREF AND THE MORE NORTHERN GEM/ECMWF. THIS WILL RESULT IN MORE OF A MIXED EVENT TO START...TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW. THIS SYSTEM WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY AS WE GET CLOSER TO IT...AS DIFFERENT SURFACE LOW TRACKS WILL GREATLY DETERMINE PRECIPITATION TYPE AND PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. THE POTENTIAL DOES EXIST FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL FOR A PORTION OF THE AREA...BUT CONFIDENCE JUST NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS POINT TO ISSUE A WATCH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted February 23, 2011 Author Share Posted February 23, 2011 6z GFS coming in noticeably north / west of previous runs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Couchsachraga Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 A few days ago ALB had 50 and rain for Friday... now high of 32 for "SW" Adirondacks and mostly snow. This bit in the forecast discussion caught my attention too this morning: -------------- USING A BLEND OF QPF FOR THE WHOLE EVENT...THIS WOULD ALLOW FORSEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE REGION...ESP FOR THE SRNDACKS/LAKE GEORGE AREA...WHERE UP TO 6 INCHES IS POSSIBLE. IT SHOULDBE MENTIONED THAT IF THE COLDER MODEL SOLUTIONS DO OCCUR...THEN OURCURRENT FORECASTED SNOWFALL COULD BE QUITE UNDERDONE. SEE THE LATESTHWOALY FOR DETAILS ON THIS POTENTIAL EVENT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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