CNYWxGuy Posted February 22, 2011 Author Share Posted February 22, 2011 Alright, here's 12z ECM qpf. MY qpf output map is on a national level, so I had to guesstimate just a tad as to where the QPF lines would appear on a county-level, but it should be a very close match.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Wow, that's impressive...I'm guessing a lot of that is rain/mix south of a BUF-ROC-GFL line? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 HPC PREFERENCE: ECMWFTHE NAM AND GFS ARE CONSIDERABLY LESS DEVELOPED WITH THIS SYSTEM THAN THE UKMET AND ECMWF...EJECTING THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW ON A MORE SUPPRESSED TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS DAY 3. THE GEM GLOBAL IS BETWEEN THE TWO CAMPS. WITH THE ADDITIONAL SUPPORT OF THE ROBUST 50 MEMBER ECENS MEAN...WILL RELY ON THE UKMET/ECMWF SOLUTION HERE AS WELL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 12z jma and nogaps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted February 22, 2011 Author Share Posted February 22, 2011 Wow, that's impressive...I'm guessing a lot of that is rain/mix south of a BUF-ROC-GFL line? Yeah, there's definately quite bit of mixing and / or rain south of that line. I have this in 6 hour intervals, but even still, its tough to divide the QPF into how much is frozen vs liquid without some sort of sounding or MOS info. I can say that BGM to GFL and points east look like all rain, maybe some light snow at the end. West of that line is probably where the accumulating snow starts, with amounts increasing as you move north and west. The SLV region is pretty much all snow for the duration. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dutch Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Yeah, there's definately quite bit of mixing and / or rain south of that line. I have this in 6 hour intervals, but even still, its tough to divide the QPF into how much is frozen vs liquid without some sort of sounding or MOS info. I can say that BGM to GFL and points east look like all rain, maybe some light snow at the end. West of that line is probably where the accumulating snow starts, with amounts increasing as you move north and west. The SLV region is pretty much all snow for the duration. GFL = greater finger lakes??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 BUFFALO NWS: EITHER WAY...A BUSY SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS EVOLVING WITH A RIDGE OFF SOUTHEAST COAST AND TROFFINESS BUILDING INTO NORTH CENTRAL STATES ALLOWING FOR A MAIN STORM TRACK FROM THE WESTERN GULF TO OHIO VALLEY TO NORTHEAST...WHICH WILL MAKE IT INTERESTING AROUND THESE PARTS AS WE MOVE INTO EARLY MARCH. They are also going with Euro on the solution on Friday. Calling for at least .5 qpf equivalent. So a moderate snowfall event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 GFL = greater finger lakes??? glens falls Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 18z nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 hr 72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Anyone have the equivalent QPF maps for the UK? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 KBGM FRIDAY...HUGE MODEL DISCREPANCIES CONTINUE WITH SFC LOW TRACK WITHGFS/NAM/SREF/CANADIAN GEM KEEPING SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. THE ECMWF/UK MET CONTINUE WITH A MORE NORTHWARD TRACK IMPLYING MORE RAIN THEN A WINTRY MIX. CONTINUED WITH LIKELY POPS AND MODEL CONSENSUS FORECAST BUT STARTED TO LEAN WITH THE SOUTHERN TRACK, COLDER SOLUTION. FOR P-TYPE WENT RAIN/SNOW MIX TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS WRN/NRN CWA AS SYSTEM LIFTS EAST AND CAA BEGINS. MUCH HAS YET TO BE DECIDED WITH THIS DIFFICULT SYSTEM SO STAY TUNED Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted February 22, 2011 Author Share Posted February 22, 2011 GGEM in color... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 KALB THE DIFFERING TRACKS...AND RESULTING DIFFERING PRECIP TYPESBRING A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY INTO THE PICTURE. THE GFS PUTS MOST OF THE PRECIP SOUTH OF THE REGION...WHILE THE ECMWF BRINGS A SWATH OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OF PRECIP ACROSS THE REGION BY SUNDAY EVENING...AND ITS TRACK IS FAR ENOUGH EAST THAT WE COULD GET A SIGNIFICANT SNOW OVER THE REGION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted February 22, 2011 Author Share Posted February 22, 2011 HPC QPF for this storm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted February 22, 2011 Author Share Posted February 22, 2011 Corresponding HPC Snow probabilities certainly reflect their decision to heavily weight the ECM into the forecast. How appropriate that the last name of the forecaster is Hedge... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted February 22, 2011 Author Share Posted February 22, 2011 18z GFS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdoug Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 I'll say the gfs is standing pat.. but the 18z nam is more euro like.... still siding with the euro for now... I think the 12z runs Wednesday will be telling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted February 22, 2011 Author Share Posted February 22, 2011 18z GFS Ens Mean... Of note is that the mean is several mb deeper and perhaps a touch n / w of the parent OP... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdoug Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 I'll say the gfs is standing pat.. but the 18z nam is more euro like.... still siding with the euro for now... I think the 12z runs Wednesday will be telling. Also FWIW.. the euro has been showing the warmer solution... most westward solution since last Thursday.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Also FWIW.. the euro has been showing the warmer solution... most westward solution since last Thursday.. yes it has, a slight shift SE today though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdoug Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 yes it has, a slight shift SE today though. Some notes on the euro soln... T850s trended colder since 12z/21 euro. One thing I like to look at is the 540thickness with these types of systems, and that stays well north. It runs from Oswego to Albany @ 0z Fri. and stays well north for CNY & ENY until 18z Fri, when it is located from SYR to ELM. I like the 540 thickness because with similar past systems it seems to be the better guage as to where mixing will occur than does the t850 temps. The models seem to have trouble bringing the warm air far enough north. T850s and T925's are fairly similar through the event, so it appears to be more of a rain vs snow type of deal rather than any other ptype getting involved. Total qpf for kbgm from the euro is around an inch, and looks fairly similar to hpc's fcst. It'll be interesting to see if any other shifts occur. BTW the 0z nam is coming in warmer thru F54.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted February 23, 2011 Author Share Posted February 23, 2011 Some notes on the euro soln... T850s trended colder since 12z/21 euro. One thing I like to look at is the 540thickness with these types of systems, and that stays well north. It runs from Oswego to Albany @ 0z Fri. and stays well north for CNY & ENY until 18z Fri, when it is located from SYR to ELM. I like the 540 thickness because with similar past systems it seems to be the better guage as to where mixing will occur than does the t850 temps. The models seem to have trouble bringing the warm air far enough north. T850s and T925's are fairly similar through the event, so it appears to be more of a rain vs snow type of deal rather than any other ptype getting involved. Total qpf for kbgm from the euro is around an inch, and looks fairly similar to hpc's fcst. It'll be interesting to see if any other shifts occur. BTW the 0z nam is coming in warmer thru F54.... Euro is also warm at the surface. When the heavier precip arrives into Upstate NY at H72, all of NYS is pretty much above freezing. At H78, even with the LP near Hunter NY, everyone but the Wrn S Tier and the Saint Lawrence Valley are still above freezing. That's not to say you cant get frozen precip with surface temp's >32°F, but just something to note... especially for lower elevations. Btw, need to get you a red-tag for this forum... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdoug Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Nice seeing the big shift in low placement on the 0z nam... at 12z friday on the 0z nam the low is over northern west virginia on the 12z it had the low over eastern KY... in other words it is a bit faster... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdoug Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Nice seeing the big shift in low placement on the 0z nam... at 12z friday on the 0z nam the low is over northern west virginia on the 12z it had the low over eastern KY... in other words it is a bit faster... Gotta love these early early spring battles! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted February 23, 2011 Author Share Posted February 23, 2011 0z NAM... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdoug Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Euro is also warm at the surface. When the heavier precip arrives into Upstate NY at H72, all of NYS is pretty much above freezing. At H78, even with the LP near Hunter NY, everyone but the Wrn S Tier and the Saint Lawrence Valley are still above freezing. That's not to say you cant get frozen precip with surface temp's >32°F, but just something to note... especially for lower elevations. Btw, need to get you a red-tag for this forum... Yep i do need a tag... never got around to it... and yes sfc temps i figure will be above freezing. was thinking rain/snow mix at the onset, rain in the middle and some snow to finish Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdoug Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Looking at the latest nam made me remember to think about dynamic cooling with this system too... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdoug Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 0z NAM... The penn state ewall has better gfx imo... esp for the regional zooms... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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