wxdoug Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 Gfs a tad cooler Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted February 25, 2011 Author Share Posted February 25, 2011 Gfs a tad cooler Yeah. Based on the NAM / SREF / GFS... I'm liking the prospects for a Warning upgrade to Tioga-Broome-Chenango-Otsego and Bradford PA. Close call for Delaware Co. Kinda surprised CTP posted a WWA to Tioga PA an hour ago, could definately make a strong case for a Warning there to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowgeek Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 I'm down in South FLorida right now......having fun tracking this one....they don't seem to trend south and colder to often during a La Nina year. Rooting for a big snow for all and a big bust forecast for Albany. GFS looks colder too. Hoping to come home on Sat to a fat load of snow in my yard! Good luck to all! BTW, 80F and sunny at the beach here every day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FEFD17 Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 I actually found it a bit bizzare that the NWS would forecast an all snow event this morning using the slightly further north/ warmer runs and have us presently mixing with rain midday tomorow in the evening forecast after watching the models nudge south/ colder. If we mix with rain in GFL tomorrow it would be a bust for the 18z/ 00z runs. To me at this point the only question is if Andy scores a coo by significantly cutting QPF amounts. I am really having mixed thoughts on this storm. I am dreading using my plow for a squeegee on the other hand I don't have a lot of work left for the year. I was looking at getting my bike ready on the last thaw. I am rooting for Andy to spank some of the other forecast's I have read( one of the other news channels has us in 9-13). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 Bob Kovachick had the lowest #'s I believe. He had only like 1-3" here and maybe 3-5" up as far as Glens Falls...said his model showed rain to Warren County. We'll see if he changes his tune at 11. 31.4F here now ..seems primed to snow. I am really having mixed thoughts on this storm. I am dreading using my plow for a squeegee on the other hand I don't have a lot of work left for the year. I was looking at getting my bike ready on the last thaw. I am rooting for Andy to spank some of the other forecast's I have read( one of the other news channels has us in 9-13). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdoug Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 Yeah. Based on the NAM / SREF / GFS... I'm liking the prospects for a Warning upgrade to Tioga-Broome-Chenango-Otsego and Bradford PA. Close call for Delaware Co. Kinda surprised CTP posted a WWA to Tioga PA an hour ago, could definately make a strong case for a Warning there to. I'm bringing broome/tioga etc into warning criteria for the 11pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted February 25, 2011 Author Share Posted February 25, 2011 Yeah. Based on the NAM / SREF / GFS... I'm liking the prospects for a Warning upgrade to Tioga-Broome-Chenango-Otsego and Bradford PA. Close call for Delaware Co. Kinda surprised CTP posted a WWA to Tioga PA an hour ago, could definately make a strong case for a Warning there to. Ha... just saw that BGM updated earlier this hour... NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... ADJUSTED START OF STEADIER PRECIP MOVING NORTH A LITTLE SLOWER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NRN NY ZONES FOR THE OVERNIGHT. STILL EXPECTING A DECENT SLUG OF PRECIP LIFTING INTO NRN PA/SRN TIER WITH A QUARTER TO HALF INCH LIQUID POSSIBLE BY 12Z. TEMPS MARGINAL IN THE LOWER 30S FOR GOOD ACCUMULATION AND BASICALLY WENT 5:1 RATIOS FOR A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW BY MORNING WHERE PTYPE IS DOMINANT SNOW. SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/... UPDATED THE FRIDAY PERIOD TO INCLUDE DELAWARE/SUSQUEHANNA AND NRN WAYNE COUNTIES IN ADVISORY AS 00Z NAM ALONG WITH RUC/LAMP AND LCL WRF RUNS TRENDING COLDER WITH A TIGHT RAIN/SNOW GRADIENT STILL ACROSS NORTHERN PA...BUT PERHAPS NOT AS FAR NORTH AS PREV FCST. TRACK OF LOW JUST TO OUR SOUTH WILL MEAN MAX LLVL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONTAL RIBBON AND WITH COUPLED JET REGION POSITIONED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NY WITH STRONG MIDLVL FRONTOGENESIS DURING THE MORNING. ALTHOUGH PROFILES ARE MARGINAL/ISOTHERMAL WITH SFC TEMPS LIKELY CLIMBING A FEW DEGREES ABOVE FRZG...WE ARE LIKELY TO SEE HVY WET SNOW FALLING AT A GOOD CLIP THROUGH 18Z WHICH WILL ACCUMULATE MORE THAN WE THOUGHT IN THE PREV MENTIONED COUNTIES. WITH COLDER TREND...WE MAY NEED TO UPGRADE A FEW COUNTIES IN NY TO A MARGINAL WARNING. ACCUMULATION ON ROADS MAY TURN OUT TO BE MANAGEABLE GIVEN TIME OF DAY TEMPS...BUT IT WILL BE CEMENT HEAVY. HIGHER ELEVATIONS MOST LIKELY TO SEE BIG ACCUMS...BUT COLDER OVERALL IN THE FINGER LAKES TO MHWK VALLEY WITH MORE EVEN DISTRIBUTION OF SNOWFALL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted February 25, 2011 Author Share Posted February 25, 2011 I'm bringing broome/tioga etc into warning criteria for the 11pm Nice... just turned over to Ch2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowgeek Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 Looks like a real nail biter up there. I have a gut feeling that you're going to be in the bullseye. Good luck. <BR><BR>Weekend 2-4" looks nice, but we need a lot of trending to be saved on the Monday / Tuesday storm. Looks toasty.<BR><BR> <BR>Bob Kovachick had the lowest #'s I believe. He had only like 1-3" here and maybe 3-5" up as far as Glens Falls...said his model showed rain to Warren County. We'll see if he changes his tune at 11.<BR><BR>31.4F here now ..seems primed to snow.<BR><BR><BR><BR><BR><BR><BR><BR> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gorizer Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 Based on the "top of the newscast" blurbs, it sounds like all three networks in Albany will be upping their snow numbers. Plus my elevation should give me an added boost. Bob Kovachick had the lowest #'s I believe. He had only like 1-3" here and maybe 3-5" up as far as Glens Falls...said his model showed rain to Warren County. We'll see if he changes his tune at 11. 31.4F here now ..seems primed to snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 The NWS for Liberty NY (12754) just upped tomorrow to 4-7 inches whereas earlier it was 1-3 for tonight and 2-4 for tomorrow .What gives? Is Sullivan County getting into the action now? Is this one of those suprise nowcasting events? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ENYsnow Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 The NWS for Liberty NY (12754) just upped tomorrow to 4-7 inches whereas earlier it was 1-3 for tonight and 2-4 for tomorrow .What gives? Is Sullivan County getting into the action now? Is this one of those suprise nowcasting events? maybe they believed this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 Well it's the best model prog. for this location of the winter. Now we'll see tomorrow if it translates to reality. I'm getting more confident..... Looks like a real nail biter up there. I have a gut feeling that you're going to be in the bullseye. Good luck. <BR><BR>Weekend 2-4" looks nice, but we need a lot of trending to be saved on the Monday / Tuesday storm. Looks toasty.<BR><BR> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 unbelievable that Ottawa misses out again. At least this won't go down as the least snowiest winter ever - we have surpassed 1952-53 for snowfall. Monday storm looks to be a washout. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowgeek Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 Make it happen! ALB is 37F / 25F. Your elevation will definitely give you a head start. Precip intentsity will probably cool sfc. temps pretty quickly even in the valleys. It hurts to miss seeing it fall, but I'm still psyched. It will still be there on Sat when I return. I'll take an occaisional peak tomorrow on my wife's droid in between snorkelling dips. Enjoy!!!!!! Well it's the best model prog. for this location of the winter. Now we'll see tomorrow if it translates to reality. I'm getting more confident..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gorizer Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 Capp is calling for as much as a foot here in the hilltowns. Make it happen! ALB is 37F / 25F. Your elevation will definitely give you a head start. Precip intentsity will probably cool sfc. temps pretty quickly even in the valleys. It hurts to miss seeing it fall, but I'm still psyched. It will still be there on Sat when I return. I'll take an occaisional peak tomorrow on my wife's droid in between snorkelling dips. Enjoy!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the minister Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 Feeling VERY good about our chances here in lovely Spencer NY! I was fearing an all-day rain there for a while, but I'm hoping for a good 8-10 possibly now! Could it really be??!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdoug Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 Good luck! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 Monday is not as hopeless there on the GFS.... A bit of a trend south and you could do well. As it is ..you seem to start with several inches of snow and end as a bit of snow on the GFS.... unbelievable that Ottawa misses out again. At least this won't go down as the least snowiest winter ever - we have surpassed 1952-53 for snowfall. Monday storm looks to be a washout. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the minister Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 Thanks Doug - I always look forward to reading your afternoon forecasts on the WBNG web page - really appreciate your honesty and accuracy. And thanks for the posts on here - we love the professionals input even if it freaks us out sometimes! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 Yeah I'm sitting at 31.6F now..... Hey I didn't plan my FL trip until March 28th because you know late February and March can be our best snow period. Make it happen! ALB is 37F / 25F. Your elevation will definitely give you a head start. Precip intentsity will probably cool sfc. temps pretty quickly even in the valleys. It hurts to miss seeing it fall, but I'm still psyched. It will still be there on Sat when I return. I'll take an occaisional peak tomorrow on my wife's droid in between snorkelling dips. Enjoy!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowgeek Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 Yeah....except I'm a teacher so Feb break and April break are my only choices (kids are in school too). And April is ice cream season at my parlor, so it's hard to leave then...so 5 days in Feb and I hope to not miss any storms, but every once in a while we do. And oh yeah...I have to visit my parents down here. It's hard to win them all. Yeah I'm sitting at 31.6F now..... Hey I didn't plan my FL trip until March 28th because you know late February and March can be our best snow period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ENYsnow Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 Yeah I'm sitting at 31.6F now..... Hey I didn't plan my FL trip until March 28th because you know late February and March can be our best snow period. lol last year is a prime example of that lets hope this storm can do it.. atleast for late february because march has been horrible lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 unbelievable that Ottawa misses out again. At least this won't go down as the least snowiest winter ever - we have surpassed 1952-53 for snowfall. Monday storm looks to be a washout. it is amazing. there really was nothing to stop this storm from coming N and W, and it was a classic NW trender setup. sometimes you just have to wave your white towel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 Glad i didn't fall for the trap this time,went from 6-10 to 4-7" lmao what a joke.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flying MXZ Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 32.0° with moderate snow falling. About 1.5" sofar. It will be interesting to see if/when we mix and/or change to rain. I've had a doe and last years fawn picking at my apple tree prunings by my house all week, and last night there were at least 10 deer eating that and my bird seed. They knew something was up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/hrrrconus/displayMap.cgi?keys=hrrr:&runtime=2011022509&plot_type=acsnw_sfc&fcst=13&time_inc=60&num_times=16&model=hrrr&ptitle=HRRR%20Model%20Fields&maxFcstLen=15&domain=full&adtfn=1&wjet=1 HRRR looks good for you all on the south side of this--- Have been using the HRRR this winter, it's a good model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ENYsnow Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 heres ALY's updated snowfall map: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 Oneonta would have been a good spot to be today. http://rapidrefresh....&adtfn=1&wjet=1 HRRR looks good for you all on the south side of this--- Have been using the HRRR this winter, it's a good model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 +SN and 29F here. This isn't really wet snow....nice stuff. I probably have over 3..maybe closer to 4 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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