ENYsnow Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 This is just rediculous... 0z NAM coming in south and cold. Keeps all the heavy precip south of N NY. BGM to ALY easily all snow. Its a headline breaker for some if its right... It may be overtrending but we'll see how much support it gets from the 00z suite. but it looks like 12"+ for BGM-ALY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ENYsnow Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 the 00z RSM wants no part of the NAM lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted February 25, 2011 Author Share Posted February 25, 2011 Here it is... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 It may be overtrending but we'll see how much support it gets from the 00z suite. but it looks like 12"+ for BGM-ALY. Any chance we can bring that down a bit to Liberty in sullivan county in the Catskills? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ENYsnow Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 Any chance we can bring that down a bit to Liberty in sullivan county in the Catskills? you would probably need one more significant trend south and colder before your looking at 12"+. on the 00z nam verbatim you hug the 0C 850 line so your elevation should help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted February 25, 2011 Author Share Posted February 25, 2011 Any chance we can bring that down a bit to Liberty in sullivan county in the Catskills? Ha... if you asked me that this Afternoon I would have said no way. But, after seeing the 0z NAM, nothing is set in stone. Verbatim it would yield a warning-level snowfall for N Wayne Co PA and Delaware Co NY. The 546dm / Surface 32°F / 850mb 0°C lines are juxtaposed from Carbondale PA-Liberty NY-Kingston NY, so could make a case that its mostly snow on the 0z NAM for you seeing as how you rest at 1600ft+ ASL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 you would probably need one more significant trend south and colder before your looking at 12"+. on the 00z nam verbatim you hug the 0C 850 line so your elevation should help. Well, it's 31 degrees here mod snow, roads covered. I guess it looks better than 6 hours ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 Better cancel the flood watches in the Catskills. ...if the NAM is correct. And better put up winter storm warnings from BGM to ALB. The NAM flattens me. Well, it's 31 degrees here mod snow, roads covered. I guess it looks better than 6 hours ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 Good south trend on the 00z NAM for you folks to my north. Enjoy your snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 Take a place like Hunter, NY ...the NWS inexplicably is forecasting like 1-3 inches total there! This could go down as one of the all time busts if the NAM 18 inches verifies there. LOL Ha... if you asked me that this Afternoon I would have said no way. But, after seeing the 0z NAM, nothing is set in stone. Verbatim it would yield a warning-level snowfall for N Wayne Co PA and Delaware Co NY. The 546dm / Surface 32°F / 850mb 0°C lines are juxtaposed from Carbondale PA-Liberty NY-Kingston NY, so could make a case that its mostly snow on the 0z NAM for you seeing as how you rest at 1600ft+ ASL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 Better cancel the flood watches in the Catskills. ...if the NAM is correct. And better put up winter storm warnings from BGM to ALB. The NAM flattens me. That might knock down the wind and squall threat down this way for tomorrow late afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 logan 11 looks to get obliterated on the NAM passing cirrus here....just about as expected Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 Which next model run and time will give us a MUCH better handle if this is truly trending south/colder and the sullivan county area can get into the action? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FEFD17 Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 Is Glens Falls out of this with the recent trend? I am trying to read this on an IPod...... Not working out too well lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stash Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 Nah, looks like NAM spits out around an inch or so precip for GFL...all snow. Granted big shift for the NAM, and would want to see GFS and Euro follow. Looks much better for the ALB - GFL area this run. Edit: maybe just under an inch for GFL per NAM Is Glens Falls out of this with the recent trend? I am trying to read this on an IPod...... Not working out too well lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dutch Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 At 1800' I'll let ya know. And then again we've seen this story before 1400 here, but, could it be? south again? for real? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BL03 Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 hmm don't know if I can believe the NAM... hopefully the other models cool off also..but I expect rain to reach me in BGM. 10"+ is rare here, at least in the last 4yrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdoug Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 Ha... if you asked me that this Afternoon I would have said no way. But, after seeing the 0z NAM, nothing is set in stone. Verbatim it would yield a warning-level snowfall for N Wayne Co PA and Delaware Co NY. The 546dm / Surface 32°F / 850mb 0°C lines are juxtaposed from Carbondale PA-Liberty NY-Kingston NY, so could make a case that its mostly snow on the 0z NAM for you seeing as how you rest at 1600ft+ ASL. Check out my snowfall gfx at WBNG... We'll see how the gfs comes in... if it too trends colder and the srefs trend colder... then i'll be adjusting! Crazy!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted February 25, 2011 Author Share Posted February 25, 2011 Check out my snowfall gfx at WBNG... We'll see how the gfs comes in... if it too trends colder and the srefs trend colder... then i'll be adjusting! Crazy!!! Yeah, I saw it... 7-13 for northern broome (2-5 / 5-8). I also posted the graphics on the previous page... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 Check out my snowfall gfx at WBNG... We'll see how the gfs comes in... if it too trends colder and the srefs trend colder... then i'll be adjusting! Crazy!!! When does the GFS come in? I use to Get WBNG until Time warner cable decided CBS 2 NY was enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 NAM may be off a bit on max qpf placement......just compare what the NAM sees as a 6 hour qpf max total, and look at radar and note that max qpf are going to most likely be north of the NAM's depiction. (S. IN/ SW OH vs. N. KY): Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 Yeah it has to do with Sullivan being in the NYC DMA.... and NYC nets can assert their rights to exclusive carrying on cable systems. I went through this all the time in Saugerties where I lived (in that northeast chimney of Ulster County. 110 miles from NYC and 40 miles from Albany and they constantly tried t take the Albany stations away. They finally did take away ALB PBS, but they still carry ABC/CBS/NBC from both Albany and NYC there. When does the GFS come in? I use to Get WBNG until Time warner cable decided CBS 2 NY was enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 buffalo gets the SCREW job on the 0z NAM, after the 18z showed 17 inches on bufkit!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 Very subtle shift south with the 21z SREF's vs. 15z's, wrt the qpf field totals..... 15z (hr. 39 totals): 21z (33 hr. totals): Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 Is Glens Falls out of this with the recent trend? I am trying to read this on an IPod...... Not working out too well lol I actually found it a bit bizzare that the NWS would forecast an all snow event this morning using the slightly further north/ warmer runs and have us presently mixing with rain midday tomorow in the evening forecast after watching the models nudge south/ colder. If we mix with rain in GFL tomorrow it would be a bust for the 18z/ 00z runs. To me at this point the only question is if Andy scores a coo by significantly cutting QPF amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 buffalo gets the SCREW job on the 0z NAM, after the 18z showed 17 inches on bufkit!!! Our region is big enough that even in this case, a few people's potential loss is another one's gain....and vice versa....good luck! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 not that big a deal.. . most ensembles of GFS/EURO/SREF crush the area with snow. one 0z NAM run right before a storm, in now-casting time, doesn't worry me too much. we had 5 straight runs of a foot plus of snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdoug Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 Very subtle shift south with the 21z SREF's vs. 15z's, wrt the qpf field totals..... 15z (hr. 39 totals): 21z (33 hr. totals): T850s a shade cooler as well on the 21z srefs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted February 25, 2011 Author Share Posted February 25, 2011 Comparing 0z GFS to 18z, doesn't really look south persay, but its definately atleast a little colder and looks to keep BGM to ALY all-snow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 T850s a shade cooler as well on the 21z srefs Which may end up washing out any slight decrease in qpf amounts to the north, with slightly better ratios. Watching the radars carefully, it still appears there is a decent precip blob crossing over into SW OH, that the NAM seems to have targeted a slightly further south area....also, NAM depicts "some" qpf by 06z for areas in KY, that certainly aren't going to receive anything.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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