Organizing Low Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Closest I could find.....a clown globe........ :lmao: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 I'm becoming a believer that we (Thruway folks) are going to have one heck of a impact on the roadways tomorrow morning and into the evening....snow starts at night, wet, dense snow, then a little warming and higher solar angle....all while some of us snow hard.....Then later, temps and sun will fall and things will start to refreeze around Fri afternoon. This one looks good for many of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 yeah its a moisture laden system, gonna be a great storm for you guys Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted February 24, 2011 Author Share Posted February 24, 2011 BGM has converted all Watches to Warnings and included Chemung-Schuyler-Tompkins-Cortland for 8-12... WWA for Tioga-Broome-Chenango-Otsego for 4-8... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 ruc [/url] http://mag.ncep.noaa...&fcast=Loop+All Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 env canada stil going for 2-4 in ottawa (down from 4-6 which was silly). it could happen but theyll need a lot of luck. i could easily see them getting only about 2cm. not a great consensus out there on the northern edge, but im not optimistic for them. perhaps can have a better idea by later this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 KBUF is saying only bare minimum warning criteria for the S lake shore near KROC...stink! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Buffalo NWS GIVEN THE STEEPNESS OF THE ISENTROPIC SURFACE…THE MAGNITUDE OF THE OMEGA/LIFT ALONG THIS SURFACE AND THE INTERCEPTION OF THE CRYSTAL GROWTH ZONE ACROSS WESTERN NY DURING FRIDAY MORNING… THUNDERSNOW IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION…ALONG WITH 1 TO 2 INCH PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES AND BRIEF BUT HEAVY GRAUPEL SHOWERS. THIS WILL BE WITHIN THE BAND OF GREATEST FORECASTED SNOW ACCUMULATIONS MENTIONED ABOVE. THE POSITION OF THE 300/250MB JET PLACES OUR REGION IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 160KT+ JET OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC AS THE NOSE OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM JET MAX IS TO OUR SOUTH…A COUPLED JET INTERACTION ENHANCING DEEP LIFT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted February 24, 2011 Author Share Posted February 24, 2011 Code red from HPC for 8+... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted February 24, 2011 Author Share Posted February 24, 2011 BGM snowmap... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 BGM snowmap... I'm not saying BGM is wrong for say...they could be right I guess...But, I'm not drinking the kool-aid BGM is pouring....The valley locations...Like the MV ... will see 5-6 inches... higher elevations north of the thruway will see 10-12 inches.... working on a ratio of 10 or 12 -1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dutch Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 I'm not saying BGM is wrong for say...they could be right I guess...But, I'm not drinking the kool-aid BGM is pouring....The valley locations...Like the MV ... will see 5-6 inches... higher elevations north of the thruway will see 10-12 inches.... working on a ratio of 10 or 12 -1 wouldn't it make sense that the higher elevations south of the thruway could also be higher? esp with a colder track, and less mixing threat? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 wouldn't it make sense that the higher elevations south of the thruway could also be higher? esp with a colder track, and less mixing threat? Sounding at 12z tomorrow (per 18z NAM) for the higher hills of E. Onondaga Co.: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 wouldn't it make sense that the higher elevations south of the thruway could also be higher? esp with a colder track, and less mixing threat? Yes that makes sense. But generally, the farther south you go totals will decrease. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 18z RGEM has (by eyeballing, adding, and converting.... ) a pretty large swath of 1.50" of qpf for SW/C NY including the Finger Lakes, East of L. Ontario (Tug south), and most of the MV into the D'acks....with that area appearing to have no real sign of a warm layer... Pretty intense line of convection getting ready to leave TX ATT....NAM shows it, but maybe not as intense.....let's see if it tries to rob the atmosphere to the north (where we have deep layer lifting to take place) and skim off some of our totals.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 New ruc loop Looks alittle further s/e.. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevpage=Param&MainPage=indexℑ=&page=Param&cycle=02%2F24%2F2011+20UTC&rname=PRECIP+PARMS&pname=precip_p01&model=RUC&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&areaDesc=North+America+-+US%2C+Canada%2C+and+northern+Mexico&fcast=Loop+All Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted February 24, 2011 Author Share Posted February 24, 2011 18z GFS is just a tick southeast of 12z leading to slightly colder and further south with the precip... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Moderate Snow has commenced in Liberty/ Monticello NY NYS calling for 1-3 tonight and 1-3 tomm Hoping for mostly fozen but know tomm will have rain at some point here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted February 24, 2011 Author Share Posted February 24, 2011 Doug Peters (wxdoug to us) is forecasting a warning-level snowfall of 7+ (2-5 Tonite / 5-8 Friday) across N Tioga-N Broome-Chenango-Otsego. Shaping up to be quite the gradient in the Ern S Tier... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 KALB FRIDAY MORNING...AT THE VERY LEAST...MESSY...WITH SNOW...HEAVY ATTIMES TO START IN THE MORNING FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN DACKS...AND SOUTHERN VT...AND INTO THE LAKE GEORGE/SARATOGA REGION. THE MAIN CULPRIT FOR THE MORNING SNOWFALL WILL BE A BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY WARM ADVECTIVE PRECIP ALONG WITH STRONG MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING...PRODUCING SNOWFALL RATES OF AT LEAST 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR...WITH EVEN HIGHER RATES POSSIBLE. THEN...BY MID MORNING...AS MILDER AIR DRAWS NORTHWARD...AREAS FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST SHOULD MIX WITH SLEET/FREEZING RAIN...AND EVENTUALLY RAIN. HOWEVER...THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THIS CHANGEOVER ZONE MAY NOT LIFT MUCH FURTHER NORTH THAN ALBANY. AND...GIVEN THE HIGH PRECIP RATES EXPECTED ACROSS THIS ZONE...WHERE IT SETS UP WILL BE THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN HEAVY SNOWFALL AMTS...OF 6-12 INCHES...AND LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL AMTS...OF 2-6 INCHES...WITH UNDER 2 INCHES WELL TO THE SOUTH ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. AT THIS POINT...BY INCORPORATING A BLEND OF THE NAM/ECMWF/GFS THERMAL PROFILES...WE GENERALLY EXPECT 3-6 INCHES OF SNOWFALL WITHIN THE CAPITAL REGION...EXCEPT 4-8 INCHES ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CAPITAL REGION...EXTENDING INTO THE NORTHERN BERKS...AND HELDERBERGS...WITH 8-12 INCHES POSSIBLE IN SCHOHARIE CO. FURTHER N...EXPECT 5-10 INCHES WITHIN THE SARATOGA REGION...AND AT LEAST 6-12 INCHES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHERN DACKS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 KALB updated snowmap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 KBUF on BUFKIT 18z SUiTES... NAM: 17.6 INCHES GFS: 8.2 INCHES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWeather Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 Yes that makes sense. But generally, the farther south you go totals will decrease. The hills just south of Utica usually cash in on one of these type of setups if I remember correctly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 The hills just south of Utica usually cash in on one of these type of setups if I remember correctly. Yes, Southern Oneida and Northern Madison often do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2Slick Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 Hmm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ENYsnow Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 KALB updated snowmap nice looks like your in the bullseye. I'm still worried about that mix line creeping further north than anticipated.. it seems like thats been the trend with these SWFE's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted February 25, 2011 Author Share Posted February 25, 2011 Haven't seen Doug on this Evening, but here is his current forecast broken into 2 parts for tonight and Friday... http://www.wbng.com/weather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ENYsnow Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 wow 00z nam coming in even colder and further south.. keeps BGM and ALY all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted February 25, 2011 Author Share Posted February 25, 2011 This is just rediculous... 0z NAM coming in south and cold. Keeps all the heavy precip south of N NY. BGM to ALY easily all snow. Its a headline breaker for some if its right... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roady Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 The hills just south of Utica usually cash in on one of these type of setups if I remember correctly. At 1800' I'll let ya know. And then again we've seen this story before Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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