Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 im thinking 2-4, 3-5 in some spots. i mean its not rocket science, i can somewhat read maps and listen to you guys. and by no means i was forecasting at any point. i never forecast cuz i leave that up to you pros. i just look at maps and radars, and try to learn in the process. definitely not rocket science but definitely much more than reading maps... experience and knowledge of the area, climatology, not model hugging, like with our last major storm if you model hugged you forecasted 4-8' like some... but if you took the setup and thought about what was playing out and where the banding would set up on the NW side of the storm you saw the potential for many of us to get rocked.. models never show the 20-30" jackpot in most nor'easters when a general area recieves around a foot.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 ok i wasnt mocking though. sorry, not like i can deliver my emotions on here. but when you said its dying out and fizzling i thought you were saying its doing something other than what it was progged to do. thats all. my apologies if i came across like an a$. no prob.. i was just over-emphasizing the fact that its not going to intensify Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lisnow66 Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Love to hear PT's thoughts on this event and how the rest of this week will possibly play out. Any thoughts PT? Looking to a voice of reason with expertise as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 definitely not rocket science but definitely much more than reading maps... experience and knowledge of the area, climatology, not model hugging, like with our last major storm if you model hugged you forecasted 4-8' like some... but if you took the setup and thought about what was playing out and where the banding would set up on the NW side of the storm you saw the potential for many of us to get rocked.. models never show the 20-30" jackpot in most nor'easters when a general area recieves around a foot.. and i actually was one who saw the setup and thought 4-8" would bust low easily. but whatever im not here to pat myself for a good job lol. im here to learn from you and the rest of the METs, and some weenies too. but i understand your points. and yes of course its more than just reading maps and not model hugging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 is anyone seeing snow.. i wonder how much of this is going to be virga Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchel Volk Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 SCRANTON SNOW 27 25 92 W5 30.00R VSB 1/2 WCI 22 Snow is upstream so we will get some, I think 2"-5" is NYC best bet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 in westport CT but no snow falling. looking at radar, there is a good band coming E on 80 from PA into NJ. that shud deff be falling and accumulating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Very light snow finally started here just now along the Delaware River, in Warren County. 64% Humidity. is anyone seeing snow.. i wonder how much of this is going to be virga Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Radar shows that precipitation should start moving into C NJ within the next 20 minutes. http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/northeast_loop.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stockmanjr Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Weather person on WNBC tonight was talking about a change to rain tomorrow in NYC...I'm wondering where she's getting her forecasts from. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 I'm not expecting much more than a dusting at my location. Just by looking at that spotty radar and movement of precip shield. Hey, I hate rain so as long as that's not happening then I'm happy. Unless the precip shield starts filling in (not likely) then I would keep expectations low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Light rain starting in Villanova PA. Temp 38, dew point 20. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 21, 2011 Author Share Posted February 21, 2011 new 04z ruc is coming in wetter and more expansive through 04 hours---good trends since 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 21, 2011 Author Share Posted February 21, 2011 also the spc wrf is much wetter than the nam--usually a good indicator that the nam had a bad run. it brings around .50" liquid to N NJ and NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Love to hear PT's thoughts on this event and how the rest of this week will possibly play out. Any thoughts PT? Looking to a voice of reason with expertise as well. I think 2-4" for most of us with the current event (some locally more/less). Then It remains extremely active with an event every two-three days (for at least the next 3-4 weeks) but each storm system will move either just south or just n and w of us and the models keep switching back and forth with the tracks of each system. Therefore, there isn't much confidence until you get within 48-60 hours of what's next. Also, without the blocking we might have had, all these systems are fast movers which doesn't allow alot of time for mixing or a period of plain rain and also significant snow--it's one or the other. Best I can say is stay tuned and buckle up because it's a fast busy ride right now and we do not know exactly where we're going with each event. WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Light rain starting in Villanova PA. Temp 38, dew point 20. That was quick -- light to mod snow now, with some pretty big flakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 oops didnt see this thread. mod snow temp down to 29 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Well, what certainly seemed like a 4 or possibly 5 inch snowstorm in my neck of the woods only a few hours ago appears to have been reduced to a 2 inch coating...maybe up to 3 if everything breaks right. If nothing else, it reinforces one of life's most important...and unpleasant....lessons...how a good situation can turn bad at the drop of a hat... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Light Snow in C NJ with a temp of 35 Deg F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEXtreme Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Let's let the system play out first lol... Some of you never learn! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Well, what certainly seemed like a 4 or possibly 5 inch snowstorm in my neck of the woods only a few hours ago appears to have been reduced to a 2 inch coating...maybe up to 3 if everything breaks right. If nothing else, it reinforces one of life's most important...and unpleasant....lessons...how a good situation can turn bad at the drop of a hat... We'll see, William: the SPC WRF is showing over .5" liquid for NYC metro, and the RUC has also trended stronger with simulated radar on its latest run. I don't think we can make a judgment until the storm is actually over, a lot of people have the bad habit of flip-flopping with each model run and thus changing their forecast constantly. I'd be a little more conservative out there on LI but I still think 2-4" is a minimum for all of NYC metro with SE NY, NNJ, and SW CT perhaps seeing 4-6". Intense convective precipitation building along the I-80 corridor in Western PA/Eastern OH...after a period of light-moderate snows in the next couple hours, we could see a stretch of heavier snow if that banding moves towards the region. Some of those heavy echoes on radar will die as the storm becomes colder and sleets changes to snow, but there's definitely some good rates out there. I've been a bit disappointed by the break-up shown on radar over the last few hours, but a lot of the storm is supposed to come from the banding over the Great Lakes and now what's been developing in Central PA. We'll see where this goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Pretty good evaporational cooling going on here. We've fallen from 38F to 34F in a matter of 20 minutes with light-mod snow. Sticking on all surfaces save for roads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 We'll see, William: the SPC WRF is showing over .5" liquid for NYC metro, and the RUC has also trended stronger with simulated radar on its latest run. I don't think we can make a judgment until the storm is actually over, a lot of people have the bad habit of flip-flopping with each model run and thus changing their forecast constantly. I'd be a little more conservative out there on LI but I still think 2-4" is a minimum for all of NYC metro with SE NY, NNJ, and SW CT perhaps seeing 4-6". Intense convective precipitation building along the I-80 corridor in Western PA/Eastern OH...after a period of light-moderate snows in the next couple hours, we could see a stretch of heavier snow if that banding moves towards the region. Some of those heavy echoes on radar will die as the storm becomes colder and sleets changes to snow, but there's definitely some good rates out there. I've been a bit disappointed by the break-up shown on radar over the last few hours, but a lot of the storm is supposed to come from the banding over the Great Lakes and now what's been developing in Central PA. We'll see where this goes. I'd offer your location should likely see 1.0 to 1.5 inches more than me...but most of the models I have scanned look keenly disappointing... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchel Volk Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Very light snow Brooklyn Heights 12:40am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JERSEYSNOWROB Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 snow flurries have commenced here in Morganville (Marlboro Twp) NJ Monmouth County Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Light snow and 35 here in central nassau... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 light snow here in monroe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 38 in Brooklyn don't know how it's Gonna stick Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 SN 32.5/26 Coating on all surfaces except paved roads...really has been coming down here in Dobbs Ferry, my car is already solidly covered in snow and the temperature has dropped to freezing. It's nice to see solid snow cover on everything after the torch wiped out so much of our beautiful snow. Radar looks totally awesome in Central PA, gonna be a great storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 38 in Brooklyn don't know how it's Gonna stick The temperature drops quickly once the precipitation arrives since dewpoints are low. What you need to be looking at right now is the dewpoint, not the actual temperature. I went from 35/14 to 32/26 in a hurry once the accumulating snows started here in Westchester. It's not having trouble sticking at all here, except to paved surfaces which will be covered later in the storm. Still liking a 4-6" call for the NW suburbs with 3-5" in NYC proper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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