earthlight Posted February 21, 2011 Author Share Posted February 21, 2011 01z RUC looks good through 14z, still going at that point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 at hr 30 the nam is def farther north with preciep then 18z for rd 2...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 21, 2011 Author Share Posted February 21, 2011 Precipitation ends between 15 and 16z on the 01z RUC..seems reasonable. Simulated radar images are coming out still, but it looks good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 21, 2011 Author Share Posted February 21, 2011 at hr 30 the nam is def farther north with preciep then 18z for rd 2...... PV is still in a bad position, going to move southwest and develop a nw flow aloft. Surface low has nowhere to go but southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 21, 2011 Author Share Posted February 21, 2011 8 hrs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 at hr 30 the nam is def farther north with preciep then 18z for rd 2...... you forgot to mention through 24 NAM is much dryer - Round 2 is not set in stone till round 1 moves through Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 21, 2011 Author Share Posted February 21, 2011 im out for a few hours dudes, happy tracking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 my northward comment wasn't meant to refer to areas that far north. lol. I was half joking but Im fine with 2" at this point. 76" on the year, but I don't get tired of it. All snow is good snow. There SNE people..you know how it goes They're* Gotcha, although I think they will be fine for an advisory criteria event. Yeah, that's the goal. That sounds like a fair forecast to me...I would probably forecast the same. Enjoy Good luck down there! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 you forgot to mention through 24 NAM is much dryer - Round 2 is not set in stone till round 1 moves through algreek posted about that already and isnice....why say it 3 times? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 21, 2011 Author Share Posted February 21, 2011 algreek posted about that already and isnice....why say it 3 times? did you hear the nam is drier? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 21, 2011 Author Share Posted February 21, 2011 lol. I was half joking but Im fine with 2" at this point. 76" on the year, but I don't get tired of it. All snow is good snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 did you hear the nam is drier? at 24 hrs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 dont you have just as much John? Between last year and this year you probably have more than ORH for the same time period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 looks like .10-.25 gets up to allsnow's house for round 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 00z nam seems right looking at radar.. for some reason.. i have a very bad feeling about this storm BIG BUST potential in the low range.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 21, 2011 Author Share Posted February 21, 2011 looks like .10-.25 gets up to allsnow's house for round 2 im sure he is running to get the plows fired up already Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 did you hear the nam is drier? Yeah a buddy told me the NAM is drier at 18 hours. By the way, the NAM is drier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 00z nam seems right looking at radar.. for some reason.. i have a very bad feeling about this storm BIG BUST potential in the low range.. yeah, radar has lost something the last hour or so. Wonder if the 00z nam picked up on something. http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/northeast_loop.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 21, 2011 Author Share Posted February 21, 2011 localized heavy snow ftw, wiped long island right off the map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Most of the precip over PA right now is either virga or light snow per ground observations. The second wave looks a lot juicier and IMO still has better potential for NYC southward. Verbatim the NAM indicates 3-6" for me in SE PA tomorrow night. Note the simulated radar on the NAM, event #1 precip is much lighter in intensity than #2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 localized heavy snow ftw, wiped long island right off the map The best part is it's at the exact same spot models earlier today were showing snow holes lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 looks like .10-.25 gets up to allsnow's house for round 2 im sure he is running to get the plows fired up already lol we are plowing right now...just to keep our skills fresh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Central PA not looking good but the HRRR says we get smoked later by the stuff from the lakes swinging over. http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/hrrrconus/jsloop.cgi?dsKeys=hrrr:&runTime=2011022100&plotName=cref_sfc&fcstInc=60&numFcsts=16&model=hrrr&ptitle=HRRRModelFields&maxFcstLen=15&resizePlot=1&domain=full&wjet=1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JERSEYSNOWROB Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 The best part is it's at the exact same spot models earlier today were showing snow holes lol. Monmouth County jackpot!? Yeah I could deal with that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 The preciep of northern pa moving se looks to be our shot for snow tonight....see how that area evolves over the next few hrs...thats my uneducated opion...dont ask for my educated opion as i dont have one http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/northeast_loop.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 The preciep of northern pa moving se looks to be our shot for snow tonight....see how that area evolves over the next few hrs...thats my uneducated opion...dont ask for my educated opion as i dont have one http://radar.weather...theast_loop.php take a look at these sim radar loops from the hrrr and RUC. Both killing the PA precip and have a new batch developing. People are basing the event off of radar right now when it will be firing up again later tonight. http://ruc.noaa.gov/rucnew/jsloop.cgi?dsKeys=ruc7t:&runTime=2011022100&plotName=cref_sfc&fcstInc=60&numFcsts=25&model=ruc&ptitle=RUCModelFields&maxFcstLen=24&resizePlot=1&domain=full&wjet=1 http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/hrrrconus/jsloop.cgi?dsKeys=hrrr:&runTime=2011022100&plotName=cref_sfc&fcstInc=60&numFcsts=16&model=hrrr&ptitle=HRRRModelFields&maxFcstLen=15&resizePlot=1&domain=full&wjet=1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 take a look at these sim radar loops from the hrrr and RUC. Both killing the PA precip and have a new batch developing. People are basing the event off of radar right now when it will be firing up again later tonight. http://ruc.noaa.gov/...ain=full&wjet=1 http://rapidrefresh....ain=full&wjet=1 Sorry to barge into your forum but the RUC looks interesting for round 2. Of course, the RUC isn't that good beyond 8-9 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 for those thinking the radar is going to get better, the storm is not intensifying its weakening and drying up quickly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Sorry to barge into your forum but the RUC looks interesting for round 2. Of course, the RUC isn't that good beyond 8-9 hours. We should all still be in the same damn forum anyway. One of the reasons why I haven't posted as much recently... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 for those thinking the radar is going to get better, the storm is not intensifying its weakening and drying up quickly but its been modeled to lose its strength around the GL. thats not a suprise. and frankly, i dont see this "drying up quickly" ether. My link Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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