earthlight Posted February 21, 2011 Author Share Posted February 21, 2011 my northward comment wasn't meant to refer to areas that far north. Gotcha, although I think they will be fine for an advisory criteria event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Mt Holly 808PM THE NAM TROUNCED THE GFS WITH ITS COLDER 850MB TEMPS UPSTREAM OF OUR CWA OFF THE 00Z SOUNDINGS. BOTH MODELS DID OK AT 925MB WITH THE HANDLING OF UPSTREAM TEMPS. THE RUB REMAINS THAT THE WARM AIR IS COMING IN ABOVE 850MB AND THE BEST WE CAN GLEAN FROM THIS IS A GREATER SLEET POTENTIAL. ON THE OTHER HAND THE NAM`S FORECAST 800MB TEMPS ARE SHOWING THE SNOW/NOT SNOW LINE PRETTY WELL. UPSHOT FOR THIS UPDATE WE ARE USING THE NAM`S THERMAL FIELDS. AS FOR QPF THE GFS AND EURO ARE SHOWING THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SNOW PRETTY WELL, BUT MEASURABLE IS MATCHING THE NAM BETTER THAN EITHER AT 00Z. THERE REMAINS A PRETTY BIG DIFFERENCE IN THE CENTRAL PART OF OUR CWA BETWEEN THE NAM AND GFS. WE ALL KNOW THAT QPF IS NEVER NUMBER ONE OF MODELING STRENGTH AND OUR COURSE OF LEAST REGRET IS TO LEAN TOWARD A MODELING CONSENSUS AVERAGE. TEMPS ARE HOLDING UP OK FROM PHL/I95 SOUTHEAST HIGHER THAN STAT GUIDANCE, BUT COLDER POCKETS CLOSER TO STAT GUIDANCE ARE OCCURRING IN THE NW PART OF OUR CWA. TO DRAW SOME CONCLUSIONS FROM ALL OF THIS, WE WILL BE EXPANDING THE ADVYS FARTHER TO THE SE INCLUDING THE PHL NW SUBURBS AND MERCER COUNTY AS WELL AS MONMOUTH COUNTY. FOR THE FORMER PAIR, THE COMBINATION OF THOSE 800MB TEMPS AND SUBFREEZING TEMPS DO MAKE A WINDOW FOR FREEZING RAIN IN THE MORNING FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS. CONFIDENCE IS NOT 100 PERCENT, BUT ENOUGH IS THERE WITH BOTH THE GFS AND NAM OFF THE 18Z RUN TO FORCE OUR HAND. IN MONMOUTH COUNTY (INLAND) ITS THE SNOWIER WEST TO EAST ORIENTATION OF THE SNOW/NOT SNOW LINE. OVERALL IN NORTHERN NEW JERSEY WE UPPED ACCUMS SLIGHTLY. MIN TEMPS ARE STILL REASONABLE AND VERY LITTLE ADJUSTMENT WAS DONE. GFS/ECMWF QPF VALUES (WE LEANED A BIT TOWARD HIGHER VALUES BECAUSE OF THE GOOD LOWER LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND LOW EPV VALUES ALOFT, BUT DID NOT GO OVER THE TOP BECAUSE OF A WEAK AND PROGRESSIVE TROWAL AND LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT MID LEVEL DRY SLOT) ALONG WITH FORECAST RATIOS (NOT TERRIBLY HIGH BECAUSE OF GOOD WINDS BELOW THE SNOW GROWTH REGION AND SOME MIXING) YIELD VALUES THAT RESEMBLE WHAT OUR COLLEAGUES AT THE NATIONAL CENTER WERE THINKING REGARDING ACCUMULATIONS, AND THAT HAS RESULTED IN AN EXPANSION OF THE ADVISORY SOUTHWARD AND AN UPGRADE TO A WARNING OVER CARBON AND MONROE COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE A GUIDANCE/CONTINUITY BLEND, AND WE TRIED TO KEEP THE PREVIOUS FORECAST`S INDICATION OF SOME WARMING (ESPECIALLY SOUTH) AFTER MIDNIGHT.-- End Changed Discussion -- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 21, 2011 Author Share Posted February 21, 2011 There SNE people..you know how it goes They're Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 21, 2011 Author Share Posted February 21, 2011 Thanks man, going for 2-4" up here...hope we can get at least that. That sounds like a fair forecast to me...I would probably forecast the same. Enjoy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 What's up with the screw job out at MacArthur?....I thought I was the only one who knows it never snows out there... Just a guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 They're no you didn't Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Rapid Refresh total accumulating snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 NAM did not have snow into E/C PA until 12z Monday......wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 I really think this storm will overpeform. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 21, 2011 Author Share Posted February 21, 2011 Rapid Refresh total accumulating snowfall. Signed and sealed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 I really think this storm will overpeform. and the door is still open for the second storm to be further north then progged............ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 21, 2011 Author Share Posted February 21, 2011 and the door is still open for the second storm to be further north then progged............ it's all about the retrograding PV lobe. The further north that feature is, the more room for amplification. The upper level height field will adjust accordingly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 21, 2011 Author Share Posted February 21, 2011 srefs a bit wetter with this upcoming event, .5-.75" liquid now into NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 21, 2011 Author Share Posted February 21, 2011 also trended south with tuesdays event by a good bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 21, 2011 Author Share Posted February 21, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 straight out of the swfe play book. This thing may be over by the time the morning commute comes around Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 srefs a bit wetter with this upcoming event, .5-.75" liquid now into NYC That's actually quite impressive; near warning criteria snows now reaching the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 straight out of the swfe play book. This thing may be over by the time the morning commute comes around isnt the precip by the lakes gonna make it here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 straight out of the swfe play book. This thing may be over by the time the morning commute comes around You're right very typical with these setups. Sitting at 35 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 isnt the precip by the lakes gonna make it here? dont think so, our storm is what you see in pa, western ny and whats left in ohio Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 21, 2011 Author Share Posted February 21, 2011 straight out of the swfe play book. This thing may be over by the time the morning commute comes around i don't agree---i think 15z is a good end time in the city and northeast of there..which is past the morning commute. you have to remember that this is being squashed southeast by the pv--which is why models have that extended band of heavier lift near the thermal gradient. this isn't a swfe by nature, which is in and out with a change to drizzle at the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 You're right very typical with these setups. Sitting at 35 here. with dews in the low teens? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 with dews in the low teens? 18 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Nam. Lol. Barely .10" for event 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 yeah, NAM says never mind, I was joking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 I don't see how this is a SWFE. We're not warming in the mid-levels, and there really is no southerly flow. It's being squashed SE by the PV. We are getting some of the moisture via frontogenesis from the storm's interaction with the PV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 i don't agree---i think 15z is a good end time in the city and northeast of there..which is past the morning commute. you have to remember that this is being squashed southeast by the pv--which is why models have that extended band of heavier lift near the thermal gradient. this isn't a swfe by nature, which is in and out with a change to drizzle at the end. I think we'll get a good 8 - 12 hours - making an end time between 8 and 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 21, 2011 Author Share Posted February 21, 2011 I don't see how this is a SWFE. We're not warming in the mid-levels, and there really is no southerly flow. It's being squashed SE by the PV. We are getting some of the moisture via frontogenesis from the storm's interaction with the PV. Yup, exactly my point. It is being driven by warm air advection in the mid levels, to an extent, but then it starts being squashed southeast by the polar vortex as you mentioned. it's more about the thermal gradient and the frontogenic lift than anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Nam. Lol. Barely .10" for event 1. Everything falls apart over the Apps as if it were a clipper... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 i really don't see what the big fuss is about the radar looking nice and things moving in quicker than expected.. to me everything looks the same forecast looks on track, i don't see how this is an overperformer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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