SnowGoose69 Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 HRRR also has a really nice hit for C NJ. The 13Z run's image at 04Z is even better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Think a compromise of the HRRR/RUC and NAM/GFS is in order. I would expect accumulating snow (at least a coating) to reach Monmouth and southern Middlesex counties in NJ. Great call. How do you feel about the 2nd wave tonight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Think a compromise of the HRRR/RUC and NAM/GFS is in order. I would expect accumulating snow (at least a coating) to reach Monmouth and southern Middlesex counties in NJ. Correct me if I'm wrong (and I may well be because I don't know much about radar)...but don't those juicy images posted include virga? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 The simulated radar images from the HRRR (and all models for that matter) can be deceiving, especially when there is lots of dry air aloft. The 13z HRRR has measurable precip. making it only as far north as about a Flemington-Toms River, NJ line through 4z tonight, while the simulated radar has 25 dbz echoes as far north as Orange County, NY and much of LI. The 13Z run's image at 04Z is even better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Think a compromise of the HRRR/RUC and NAM/GFS is in order. I would expect accumulating snow (at least a coating) to reach Monmouth and southern Middlesex counties in NJ. Hopefully your wrong and accumulating snows reach the lower Hudson Valley Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Hopefully your wrong and accumulating snows reach the lower Hudson Valley Pulling for a last minute north trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Yea, not a huge fan of the sim radar. Fun to look at though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 In any other season I would have summed up my chances of seeing more snow tonight, other than a coating, at about 10-15% but being as the models have been just horrific with exact placement as to where the precip cut offs are I think its 50/50. I'll be watching tonight to compare the simulated radars vs actual radars and see how far they are off. We all saw what a great job the NAM did earlier this season when it displaced the precip 100 miles off shore even as it was falling over us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 More importantly, the GFS just initialized... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 More importantly, the GFS just initialized... It's out to 36. The wave still misses the area. Looks like D.C to SNJ gets a moderate snow event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Think a compromise of the HRRR/RUC and NAM/GFS is in order. I would expect accumulating snow (at least a coating) to reach Monmouth and southern Middlesex counties in NJ. Gotcha. pretty much what I'm expecting as well. I don't think I'm going to change the map I mad yesterday evening...Though maybe the 2-5" is a little further north and doesnt quite die off like my map reflects. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 It's out to 36. The wave still misses the area. Looks like D.C to SNJ gets a moderate snow event. Good for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 It's out to 36. The wave still misses the area. Looks like D.C to SNJ gets a moderate snow event. Its annoying that these storms arent curving up the coast lol-- it goes against the laws of nature for 2010-11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 I would put more faith in the high res at this point, the GFS shows precip over the area 6hrs from now. Pardon me but this radar looks good for our area...cutoff looks like Orange County, NY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
masomenos Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 5.5 for the event and 66.6 for the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 That radar is deceiving, because it doesn't show the gradations between light and heavy echoes well for the mix/snow colors. Surface obs. show precip. is generally only reaching the ground where that radar shows rain - e.g. southern and central Indiana, southern Ohio, SW PA. There are large areas of virga over northern Illinois, Indiana and Ohio, and NW PA. Much better radar loop (doesn't have snow/mix/rain demarcations): http://synoptic.envsci.rutgers.edu/site/radar.php?&conus=anim&radar=CONUS I would put more faith in the high res at this point, the GFS shows precip over the area 6hrs from now. Pardon me but this radar looks good for our area...cutoff looks like Orange County, NY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Still very light snow here, been doing so for past couple of hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 I would put more faith in the high res at this point, the GFS shows precip over the area 6hrs from now. Pardon me but this radar looks good for our area...cutoff looks like Orange County, NY. As the precipitation gets closer to the coast, it's going to shear out to the north as the confluence rips up the northern edge. Also, the confluence is causing the surface low to move southeast from its current location. These details will become more evident as the storm progresses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 The simulated radar images from the HRRR (and all models for that matter) can be deceiving, especially when there is lots of dry air aloft. The 13z HRRR has measurable precip. making it only as far north as about a Flemington-Toms River, NJ line through 4z tonight, while the simulated radar has 25 dbz echoes as far north as Orange County, NY and much of LI. Correct me if I'm wrong, but it's very hard to get 40 dbz Virga, and plus the air has moistened up due to today's snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 take a look at the WV loop over the past 24hrs. You can see round #2 getting shoved southward but for the moment, it would appear our low is winning the battle. http://www.nws.noaa.gov/sat_loop.php?image=wv&hours=24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jasonli18t Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 ended up with 4 inches out here, better than i expected. now over 60 inches on the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 take a look at the WV loop over the past 24hrs. You can see round #2 getting shoved southward but for the moment, it would appear our low is winning the battle. http://www.nws.noaa....age=wv&hours=24 That's exactly what it was supposed to do; very well modeled. Look at that loop in 4 hours and see what a difference it makes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 I think people are dismissing this threat way to early and putting way too much faith in models, this is a NOWCASTING EVENT. If I turn around in six hours and the radar is completely shreaded then so be it, but for now I'm likeing what I see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 5.8" up this way.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LHSnow Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 I sent it in. Send it to Upton...that part of Nassau needs representation... http://www.erh.noaa..../okx/report.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 any final totals for NYC locations?...Central Park had 2.5" at 7am but another 0.09" of precip fell after...If snow it would be near 3 and a half inches... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmb8021 Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 had exactly 7" from last night's storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ict1523 Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 3.0" here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Canadian has major snow event on Friday. It caved to the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Wish we still had one forum for Philly-NYC - kills us Jersey folks who have to read/post in multiple threads, plus we "lost" the input of some really good folks who only post in the Philly threads now. Anyway, part 1 certainly underperformed a bit, with me getting 1.25" in Metuchen vs. the 3-5" forecast. On the bright side, however, this snowfall pushes me over 60" for the season to 60.5", which is pretty damn sweet. After ending last year at 59" with no snow in March and then being stuck on ~59" this year for the past month (outside of a couple of 1/4" events), I was starting to worry we somehow wouldn't crack 60". Very nice. Tonight's not looking so good for us this far north, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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