Ginx snewx Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Is Harvey Leonard fan a groupie of a bald older Met.? Kinda twisted. Thanks freak for the pic, Euro ENS way inside the OP, guess this ends up in Minn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 im actually looking forward to being in florida march 3rd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 okx splitting the difference for now with regards to friday. No chance this thing cuts west of new england, this has canal written all over it and while that will not produce an all snow event for 90% of the people that live in sne, it surely will not be 50+F and rain, no chance, no how. This will be a pounding wet snow bomb for the berks into the greens, with a snow to rain back to snow scenario for the interior and rain to snow for the coast, northern stream is dominant and will bleed the cold south and east. While at first this will be shallow, it will be enough for a coastal to take over and graze messengers right nut. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 50's and rain are coming Friday...sucks..really really sucks I'd rather snow, but I'm not too torn up over it; pack is crap, anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 This seems reasonable by Eckster right now, MODEL OVERVIEW...THE 12Z MODELS STILL SHOW SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN TRACK AS THE ECMWF/UKMET REMAIN MORE AMPLIFIED AND THE 12Z GFS AND GGEM REMAIN FLATTER /AND SUBSEQUENTLY MORE SOUTH/. THE 12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN IS EVEN FURTHER NORTH THAN THE OP AND BRINGS THE SFC LOW NEAR BTV. THE 12Z GFS ENS MEAN IS A SMIDGE SOUTH OF THE 12Z OP ECMWF. AT THIS TIME...WE FEEL THAT THE ECMWF AND IT/S ENSEMBLE ARE A BIT TOO AMPLIFIED...BUT THE 12Z GFS TOO FLAT. AT THIS TIME...THE FORECAST GENERALLY FOLLOWED THE 12Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN TRACK WHICH SEEMS TO BE A DECENT COMPROMISE. THEREFORE...IT LOOKS LIKE A GOOD PORTION OF THE CWA SHOULD SEE SOME SORT OF MIXED PRECIPITATION AT ONE POINT OR ANOTHER DURING FRIDAY. AS FAR AS POPS GO...WENT WITH CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN LIKELY FOR FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN HALF OF CWA. KEPT THE PTYPE SNOW IN THE NORTH FRIDAY...BUT WENT WITH A MIX FOR ROUGHLY THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. THE SYSTEM QUICKLY EXITS FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN A WEAK OVERRUNNING EVENT LOOKS POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT AND SUN. A STRONGER STORM SYSTEM COULD THEN AFFECT THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 I'm not against a good March btw, so don't try to read in between the lines of my posts. I know some are going for an epic month. I'm just saying that we have a few caution flags up, and explaining what they are...mainly the dam PNA and AO. You can also throw some reasons up as to why it will rock. If the EPO can really muscle the PV to the south...it could be one hell of a ride. 20-35" in March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Barry favoring a wet solution for Friday, but says snow is not off the table. Then goes on to say this, basically what folks have said here, March has potential, its a matter of if it works out. I am going to include a paragraph from my earlier blog today because the next few weeks could be quite interesting. Here it is. It was the week that was featuring a beautiful Valentine’s Day, a frigid Tuesday, a recovering Wednesday then a balmy almost record-breaking Thursday and Friday. It was climaxed by nasty thunderstorms cranking out many potent positive polarity lightning discharges and rare wintertime hail Friday evening. Then a mere 24 hours later, wind chill temperatures went subzero! Is that crazy or what? Furthermore, the pattern is not about to become benign by any stretch of the imagination. Although its peak has passed, La Nina is alive and well. So keep your score card handy because I prophesy an atmospheric setup capable of generating the potential for about 2 storms per week well into March. Does that mean we’ll have a direct hit from each candidate? Absolutely not because it will depend upon a plethora of parameters linking at the precise time in the proper amount. Clearly, it will turn into another period of challenge, consternation and frustration for us forecasters. With temperature contrasts becoming more acute from north to south, a more energetic jet stream will occasionally be tapping a rich moisture supply from the Gulf of Mexico resulting in more prolific precipitation producers. The storm tracks will waiver leading to inside runners to coastal huggers to offshore ocean liners depending in part on the strength of high latitude blocking from northern Quebec to Greenland. It definitely will be interesting to follow the daily forecast cycles from the myriad of mathematical models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 okx splitting the difference for now with regards to friday. No chance this thing cuts west of new england, this has canal written all over it and while that will not produce an all snow event for 90% of the people that live in sne, it surely will not be 50+F and rain, no chance, no how. This will be a pounding wet snow bomb for the berks into the greens, with a snow to rain back to snow scenario for the interior and rain to snow for the coast, northern stream is dominant and will bleed the cold south and east. While at first this will be shallow, it will be enough for a coastal to take over and graze messengers right nut. Don't know enough to agree or disagree. So--why is this the case? 18.4/-1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 This seems reasonable by Eckster right now, MODEL OVERVIEW...THE 12Z MODELS STILL SHOW SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN TRACK AS THE ECMWF/UKMET REMAIN MORE AMPLIFIED AND THE 12Z GFS AND GGEM REMAIN FLATTER /AND SUBSEQUENTLY MORE SOUTH/. THE 12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN IS EVEN FURTHER NORTH THAN THE OP AND BRINGS THE SFC LOW NEAR BTV. THE 12Z GFS ENS MEAN IS A SMIDGE SOUTH OF THE 12Z OP ECMWF. AT THIS TIME...WE FEEL THAT THE ECMWF AND IT/S ENSEMBLE ARE A BIT TOO AMPLIFIED...BUT THE 12Z GFS TOO FLAT. AT THIS TIME...THE FORECAST GENERALLY FOLLOWED THE 12Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN TRACK WHICH SEEMS TO BE A DECENT COMPROMISE. THEREFORE...IT LOOKS LIKE A GOOD PORTION OF THE CWA SHOULD SEE SOME SORT OF MIXED PRECIPITATION AT ONE POINT OR ANOTHER DURING FRIDAY. AS FAR AS POPS GO...WENT WITH CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN LIKELY FOR FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN HALF OF CWA. KEPT THE PTYPE SNOW IN THE NORTH FRIDAY...BUT WENT WITH A MIX FOR ROUGHLY THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. THE SYSTEM QUICKLY EXITS FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN A WEAK OVERRUNNING EVENT LOOKS POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT AND SUN. A STRONGER STORM SYSTEM COULD THEN AFFECT THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. I agree 100%; I said the same thing, earlier today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 I agree 100%; I said the same thing, earlier today. As well as i did, Its a thread the needle, Need a solution between the two up here anyways Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 okx splitting the difference for now with regards to friday. No chance this thing cuts west of new england, this has canal written all over it and while that will not produce an all snow event for 90% of the people that live in sne, it surely will not be 50+F and rain, no chance, no how. This will be a pounding wet snow bomb for the berks into the greens, with a snow to rain back to snow scenario for the interior and rain to snow for the coast, northern stream is dominant and will bleed the cold south and east. While at first this will be shallow, it will be enough for a coastal to take over and graze messengers right nut. Taunton still has a mix to snow for this area so I'm not convinced of any soaking torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Typhoon Tip Posted 17 February 2011 - 02:25 PM I bet that D9 EURO deal ends up on the EC - either that or sheared much more eastward. Right - how the hell is that a promise? - like I said, 'if i made that statement i did so in gest', which is precisely what that implies. That head of yours - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 18Z GFS would be interior snow's with the low tracking over the cape, Still a fringe job here verbatium Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php?/topic/13869-i-heard-that-jb-resigned-from-accuwx/page__pid__493885#entry493885 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Hopefully he's coming to ktan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/images/gfs_p24_108m.gif If only it were all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Hopefully he's coming to ktan Much more likely that he and the Rev elope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 This seems reasonable by Eckster right now, AS FAR AS POPS GO...WENT WITH CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN LIKELY FOR FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN HALF OF CWA. KEPT THE PTYPE SNOW IN THE NORTH FRIDAY...BUT WENT WITH A MIX FOR ROUGHLY THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. THE SYSTEM QUICKLY EXITS FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN A WEAK OVERRUNNING EVENT LOOKS POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT AND SUN. A STRONGER STORM SYSTEM COULD THEN AFFECT THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. With the track the way it is, why would they be focusing POPS on the southern half of the the region? I'd think the geogrpahic question would be more about p-type than pops. 17.3/-1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 With the track the way it is, why would they be focusing POPS on the southern half of the the region? I'd think the geogrpahic question would be more about p-type than pops. 17.3/-1 They did outline it more with the CAR office as it would be snow north and snow/sleet south LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... THE MAIN FOCUS THIS TERM WILL BE THE LOW PRES SYSTEM APCHG FROM THE OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY. THE LATEST RUN OF THE ECMWF CONTINUES W/TRACKING THE LOW ACROSS CENTRAL MAINE ON FRIDAY AND THEN INTO NEW BRUNSWICK WHILE THE LATEST RUN OF THE GFS RUNS THE LOW THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE AND THEN ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA. THE LATEST ENSEMBLE MEMBERS OF THE GFS ARE FURTHER N THAN THE OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE GFS WHICH TAKE THE LOW ACROSS COASTAL MAINE. AFTER COLLABORATION W/GYX...THE DECISION WAS TO GO IN THE MIDDLE W/THE TRACK ACROSS DOWNEAST MAINE WHICH LENDS SUPPORT TO WARMER AIR BEING BROUGHT INTO THE COAST UP INTO THE BANGOR REGION WHILE COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW FOR THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS INTO NORTHERN MAINE. EXTENDED GMOS POPS UP TO LIKELY INTO THE INTERIOR DOWNEAST AND THE COAST AND STAYED W/CHC POPS ATTM FURTHER N. GMOS TEMPERATURES WERE RAISED AS WELL ON FRIDAY TO GO MID 30D FOR THE BANGOR AND BAR HARBOR REGIONS W/SNOW & RAIN. FURTHER N...UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S W/ALL SNOW FOR THE WX ELEMENTS. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE FAST MOVER AND THE UPPER LOW REMAINS OPEN BOTH AT 700-500MBS. ATTM...NO HEADLINES. WE WILL ADD A MENTION OF THIS IN THE HWO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 DId blizzie cancel his subscrip to pro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Right - how the hell is that a promise? - like I said, 'if i made that statement i did so in gest', which is precisely what that implies. That head of yours - Definitely wouldn't characterize that as a promise, but not a joke, either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 21, 2011 Author Share Posted February 21, 2011 GFS ensembles pretty toasty. They continue to be nw of the op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 GFS ensembles pretty toasty. They continue to be nw of the op. This is an open-closed case....rainer. As epic as that month was, the past 3 weeks have benn absolutely awful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 21, 2011 Author Share Posted February 21, 2011 This is an open-closed case....rainer. As epic as that month was, the past 3 weeks have benn absolutely awful. This is probably going to be something that passes just west, or over sne. I guess it could cut through Buffalo, but I think it may track east of there. The problem is...even with a track east, warmer air floods in out ahead of it. It might give areas like nrn orh county and sw NH some frozen first, but I think it's ugly for most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HarveyLeonardFan Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Is Harvey Leonard fan a groupie of a bald older Met.? Kinda twisted. Thanks freak for the pic, Euro ENS way inside the OP, guess this ends up in Minn. You've been adamant in advertising a snowy weather pattern that has yet to materialize. And if March doesn't meet your lofty expections you're gonna have some egg on your face. No, I'm not a groupie. I just have a lot of respect for anyone who can remain relevant in the tv news business for 4 decades. I've worked inside 24 hour a day cable newsrooms in DC and NYC. It can get ugly because there are a lot of tv news executives who aren't that bright. If you're gonna survive on-air for so long whether you're at the local or national level of course you have to be lucky, but you have to be smart and tough and this is why I have so much respect for a guy like Harvey Leonard and I regret the fact that stupid tv news executives ended Todd Gross's run at Channel 7 when he was at the top of his game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 This is probably going to be something that passes just west, or over sne. I guess it could cut through Buffalo, but I think it may track east of there. The problem is...even with a track east, warmer air floods in out ahead of it. It might give areas like nrn orh county and sw NH some frozen first, but I think it's ugly for most. Yes....I think it's gonna cut right over us and maybe start as ice in GC and n ORH co, but a "who cares" for most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 This is an open-closed case....rainer. As epic as that month was, the past 3 weeks have benn absolutely awful. There seems to be a real split of opinion with many liking this pattern as real wintry. I'm with you...awful, and with Tip...if all we have left is these blueball storms and cutters bring on spring. I still hold out a little hope for this next one but it probably won't matter for SNE. What's disconcerting is the bigger storms have shifted so far north. It's 2/21, if the storms through 3/1-3/3 are toast that doesn't leave a lot of time climo speaking for a good chunk of SNE. If we get to 3/1 or 3/3 without any big snows and are at that point looking at solutions down the road we're down to two real weeks to get it done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 This is an open-closed case....rainer. As epic as that month was, the past 3 weeks have benn absolutely awful. There's been 10+ inches of snow in much of SNE over the last 3 weeks..that's not awful..not by a longshot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 You've been adamant in advertising a snowy weather pattern that has yet to materialize. And if March doesn't meet your lofty expections you're gonna have some egg on your face. No, I'm not a groupie. I just have a lot of respect for anyone who can remain relevant in the tv news business for 4 decades. I've worked inside 24 hour a day cable newsrooms in DC and NYC. It can get ugly because there are a lot of tv news executives who aren't that bright. If you're gonna survive on-air for so long whether you're at the local or national level of course you have to be lucky, but you have to be smart and tough and this is why I have so much respect for a guy like Harvey Leonard and I regret the fact that stupid tv news executives ended Todd Gross's run at Channel 7 when he was at the top of his game. Yea, 81" in the 3rd week of Feb blows. He called for an epic winter and we are still on track for just that; what are you smoking.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 There's been 10+ inches of snow in much of SNE over the last 3 weeks..that's not awful..not by a longshot I have 4.5" of snowfall with a net loss of about 18"...pissah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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