Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Convective feedback at 4 days lol. Well if the euro is close to right endless winter is more like endless boredom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 What a great winter day! A few inches of powder, cloudy and cold, no melting and another day with snowpack. Brutal cold tonight into tomorrow. Things could not get any better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 15z SREF's look like the GFS GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 LOL..with a 42 degree stratiform rain? You promised us last week this would trend south and colder I don't recall making such a promise - if I did was probably in gest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Sref's at day 4? lol they're bad enough at 12 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Yea it was ! It will be an interesting event, either way. But, the differences here do not have anything to do with convective gridscale feedback - the marker for that are not evident. Not sure where they came up with that. The differences are related to the handling of the N stream, exerting on the flow from the N and keeping the track suppressed in these colder solution. In any event, with a westerly track we could wind up with a severe weather outbreak here, squalline in nature - Hr 78 and Hr 84 on 12z GFS have a couple convective looking blobs of almost 2" QPF in 6 hrs who knows though it would be pretty warm and those might be legit convection... I'm guessing HPC is thinking the low would then be displaced south around where those convective areas are? I thought the latent heat release would pump up the ridge more and amp it up rather than string it out. Regardless, I'm glad we have something snowy still on the table even though cutter seems to be a bit more likely at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Hr 78 and Hr 84 on 12z GFS have a couple convective looking blobs of almost 2" QPF in 6 hrs who knows though it would be pretty warm and those might be legit convection... I'm guessing HPC is thinking the low would then be displaced south around where those convective areas are? I thought the latent heat release would pump up the ridge more and amp it up rather than string it out. Regardless, I'm glad we have something snowy still on the table even though cutter seems to be a bit more likely at this point. Dubious at best when the apparency of the flow at large and having a more dominating N stream in those colder model runs is far more obvious an impact on the storm track. Kevin - I recall that now, but it wasn't having anything to do with that Friday system; I was talking about today's system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Dubious at best when the apparency of the flow at large and having a more dominating N stream in those colder model runs is far more obvious an impact on the storm track. Kevin - I recall that now, but it wasn't having anything to do with that Friday system; I was talking about today's system. No it was def for the Friday system..I distinctly remember you saying it would trend colder. No big deal..hopefully it will..but I doubt it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 No it was def for the Friday system..I distinctly remember you saying it would trend colder. No big deal..hopefully it will..but I doubt it Dude, - you're wrong... I was talking to Scott/Will about today as back then the ECM was way over Lake Erie with this wave that just went by. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 No it was def for the Friday system..I distinctly remember you saying it would trend colder. No big deal..hopefully it will..but I doubt it Dude, - you're wrong... I was talking to Scott/Will about today as back then the ECM was way over Lake Erie with this wave that just went by. You two should wrastle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 I've wrastled nude guys before..I'll do it again with you Not with me you won't Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Has the Euro been shifting either way the last few runs, or has it been steadfast in the location of the low? Some of the posts seem to have indicated a bit of a SW shift... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 As bad as the euro looks it did come east from its run from a couple days ago, It had the low tracking up the St Lawrence now it tracks it thru SNE and DE Maine, But will it shift east enough? We shall see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 You two should wrastle Nah, Kev' is just too obsessed about snow. He edits his memories because of that LOL In any case, I couldn't be happier if the ECM came up W and we wound up with 60F DPs and SSW winds of 45mph to erode this snow pack all the way to CAR. Seeing as that is what I want, Kevin's solution for Friday will like play out - which I don't even know what that is but I am sure it is centered around 22' of snow in a single event, followed by the Day After Tomorrow - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 As bad as the euro looks it did come east from its run from a couple days ago, It had the low tracking up the St Lawrence now it tracks it thru SNE and DE Maine, But will it shift east enough? We shall see Service with a smile! Thanks Now we need to introduce the cold, but I fear the good Doctor will be ruling the outcome here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Nah, Kev' is just too obsessed about snow. He edits his memories because of that LOL In any case, I couldn't be happier if the ECM came up W and we wound up with 60F DPs and SSW winds of 45mph to erode this snow pack all the way to CAR. Seeing as that is what I want, Kevin's solution for Friday will like play out - which I don't even know what that is but I am sure it is centered around 22' of snow in a single event, followed by the Day After Tomorrow - We would not mind if that was confined to your area.......lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Service with a smile! Thanks Now we need to introduce the cold, but I fear the good Doctor will be ruling the outcome here... Kind of a fooked up situation here, We need something between the Euro and GFS which is a thread the needle job, Gfs is a whiff and Euro is a mixed mess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Nah, Kev' is just too obsessed about snow. He edits his memories because of that LOL In any case, I couldn't be happier if the ECM came up W and we wound up with 60F DPs and SSW winds of 45mph to erode this snow pack all the way to CAR. Seeing as that is what I want, Kevin's solution for Friday will like play out - which I don't even know what that is but I am sure it is centered around 22' of snow in a single event, followed by the Day After Tomorrow - Here is Smith Hall for you... first UML building ever torn down (other than that old supermarket thing). They are building some emerging tech center there. Oh, the stories... You will be working in your garden soon enough brother Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Nah, Kev' is just too obsessed about snow. He edits his memories because of that LOL In any case, I couldn't be happier if the ECM came up W and we wound up with 60F DPs and SSW winds of 45mph to erode this snow pack all the way to CAR. Seeing as that is what I want, Kevin's solution for Friday will like play out - which I don't even know what that is but I am sure it is centered around 22' of snow in a single event, followed by the Day After Tomorrow - Typhoon Tip Posted 17 February 2011 - 02:25 PM I bet that D9 EURO deal ends up on the EC - either that or sheared much more eastward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 I just hope this next one isn't a brutal hit like today. Not sure the roofs can handle another dump of this magnitude. The euro really is ugly for longer term winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 21, 2011 Author Share Posted February 21, 2011 Alright, alright..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Alright, alright..lol. Can you tell that the EURO was a chair tipper lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 21, 2011 Author Share Posted February 21, 2011 Can you tell that the EURO was a chair tipper lol The euro looked ugly for days, wrt Friday. I must have posted that about 20 times starting last week. I'll tell you one thing, the euro ensembles have been outstanding this winter. When they sniff a warm pattern out...bank on it. They were bullish at times with the cold I think, but they've done a good job at sniffing out disasters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 You've had a number of bad posts today Thanks, all your snow gone yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 The euro looked ugly for days, wrt Friday. I must have posted that about 20 times starting last week. I'll tell you one thing, the euro ensembles have been outstanding this winter. When they sniff a warm pattern out...bank on it. They were bullish at times with the cold I think, but they've done a good job at sniffing out disasters. Great.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 The euro looked ugly for days, wrt Friday. I must have posted that about 20 times starting last week. I'll tell you one thing, the euro ensembles have been outstanding this winter. When they sniff a warm pattern out...bank on it. They were bullish at times with the cold I think, but they've done a good job at sniffing out disasters. Exactly....go ens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Seems like we're still at an impass wrt to Friday. Was hoping we might get a model collapse so we could not worry about staying up for model runs (I have actually given up that practice). Meanwhile, beautiful sunny day. Managed to actually get a fairly decent duration of big dentrites. Never especilally hard, but still managed to get perhpas 2" before it finally stopped at about noontime. 21.8/1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 skies have cleared out nice direct northerly disharge from the north now gusting to 25+, dp down to 15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 21, 2011 Author Share Posted February 21, 2011 Great.... LOL, I'm not implying anything for March, but like I said earlier in this thread...I'm not on the epic train quite yet. +AO is here to stay for a while. That combined with a stable like pattern with La Nina -PNA troughing out west will have us biting our nails from time to time. It could be quite the gradient pattern. The models are really bring some mighty cold air into Canada and into the nctrl US, thanks to the EPO. It's way too early to say what side of the boundary we will be on, but this will be one hell of a battle. We could see some nasty midwest storms, and even the potential for some strong lows to come up the coast if the front is off to the se. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 So what do the Euro ensembles look like? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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