Tropopause_Fold Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 your gonna torch Rain, mainly before 5pm. The rain could be heavy at times. High near 47. Calm wind becoming west between 4 and 7 mph. Winds could gust as high as 22 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts between 1 and 2 inches possible. my guess for the over/under for inches melted is 12! from 7am to 7pm it is gonna go fast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 seriously though, what the hell happneed here there was supposed to be hope yesterday, and 18 hours later its torch city . i'm guessing we lost the -EPO??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Nah 700? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 These spring posts make me want to vomit. Yep, lets usher in low clouds and fog. I just don't know what good March and April are. Yes last year was wonderful, but lets face it..probably was an anomaly. this is what i tell people all the time. why want march or april? they suck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 23, 2011 Author Share Posted February 23, 2011 seriously though, what the hell happneed here there was supposed to be hope yesterday, and 18 hours later its torch city . i'm guessing we lost the -EPO??? The ridge is there, but it's not in the ideal position right now. It's the -PNA and +NAO that's killing us. These were the things that had me hold off on boarding the epic train for the last two weeks, but they are starting to hurt us. The thing is, as Will pointed out...we have done well before based on analogs. It's not like we need the pattern to shift 1000 miles...it's probably going to be very close, so it's tough to write things off. The pattern relaxes after the 5th, so that might be our next good opportunity. However, that is not a lock, because models have shifted back to a more classic Nina..everytime they show cold. Another reason that has me nervous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 23, 2011 Author Share Posted February 23, 2011 this is what i tell people all the time. why want march or april? they suck. I hate it. Drizzle and 38-45 into May is as bad as 55 in January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 36/-10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 I hate it. Drizzle and 38-45 into May is as bad as 55 in January. agree. its the only time of year/type of weather that has me considering rafters Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 23, 2011 Author Share Posted February 23, 2011 agree. its the only time of year/type of weather that has me considering rafters You're not kidding. If it's not drizzle this year, it may be gas prices. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 The ridge is there, but it's not in the ideal position right now. It's the -PNA and +NAO that's killing us. These were the things that had me hold off on boarding the epic train for the last two weeks, but they are starting to hurt us. The thing is, as Will pointed out...we have done well before based on analogs. It's not like we need the pattern to shift 1000 miles...it's probably going to be very close, so it's tough to write things off. The pattern relaxes after the 5th, so that might be our next good opportunity. However, that is not a lock, because models have shifted back to a more classic Nina..everytime they show cold. Another reason that has me nervous. thanks for the explantion i just looked at the indices and it looks like the PNA is going to be trending up and the NAO is trending down. they will still be neg and pos, but not as bad as they have been. i looked at the euro 8-10 day mean on ewall and i can see the PV trying to escape to the other side of the globe while the GFS has it locked in place and some gradient type situation. that said, its dishearteing seeing cutter after cutter west of all of us since todays runs. i noticed that with the sunday monday storm, the slower the energy comes out out of the west, the colder the solutions are....yeah its highyl unlikely not enough to save SNE but maybe enough to limit damage in CNE/NNE. i am hoping there is still enough time and uncertainty, that can result in better solutions in the next couple days both for the next storm (doubtful, i know) and the pattern afterwards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 I hate it. Drizzle and 38-45 into May is as bad as 55 in January. Scott, as far as the NAO, PNA and Greenland blocking what combination do we want or not want as we head later into spring looking for mild dry weather in New England? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 23, 2011 Author Share Posted February 23, 2011 thanks for the explantion i just looked at the indices and it looks like the PNA is going to be trending up and the NAO is trending down. they will still be neg and pos, but not as bad as they have been. i looked at the euro 8-10 day mean on ewall and i can see the PV trying to escape to the other side of the globe while the GFS has it locked in place and some gradient type situation. that said, its dishearteing seeing cutter after cutter west of all of us since todays runs. i noticed that with the sunday monday storm, the slower the energy comes out out of the west, the colder the solutions are....yeah its highyl unlikely not enough to save SNE but maybe enough to limit damage in CNE/NNE. i am hoping there is still enough time and uncertainty, that can result in better solutions in the next couple days both for the next storm (doubtful, i know) and the pattern afterwards. That's why I said to watch that time. We just need to squash the se ridge a tiny bit. The MJO also may go towards phase 7, so fingers crossed on that. That would push convection near the dateline and help turn the PNA around. However, se ridge has been coming in stronger..Hence the first week of March disaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 These spring posts make me want to vomit. Yep, lets usher in low clouds and fog. I just don't know what good March and April are. Yes last year was wonderful, but lets face it..probably was an anomaly. While everyone was posting their weather fetishes I should've posted that I enjoy searing heat in the summer (not that I get much above low 90s up here, but MHT does hit 100F on occasion). So in April I like the soil drying out as fast as possible so that we can push ground cracking drought by July. It's sort of the summer equivalent to getting the snow cover building in Canada during OND. It's a little sick and twisted, but up there with your love for flooding. Hopefully Kevin's lawn is a scorched, crispy brown JJA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 23, 2011 Author Share Posted February 23, 2011 Scott, as far as the NAO, PNA and Greenland blocking what combination do we want or not want as we head later into spring looking for mild dry weather in New England? Well as we head into Spring, the -NAO actually correlates to a se ridge...say from April on. Last year we had a strong -NAO but what happened was that Quebec torched in March. Our airmass was coming from the north and northwest...over areas that had bare ground. Normally, this area is snow covered through April. As a result, airmass was modified and warm spring resulted. We also saw Nina rapidly develop along with a se ridge. This also kept backdoor fronts well to our northeast. Another reason why we torched. In Spring, wavelengths shorten so things like a +PNA and -NAO don't always correlate to values that we see in January. I would think you'd want some sort of -PNA or trough in the west, and a +NAO, if you want mild condiitons. I think a strong +NAO can hurt us in Spring as well..so we need to be careful of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 23, 2011 Author Share Posted February 23, 2011 While everyone was posting their weather fetishes I should've posted that I enjoy searing heat in the summer (not that I get much above low 90s up here, but MHT does hit 100F on occasion). So in April I like the soil drying out as fast as possible so that we can push ground cracking drought by July. It's sort of the summer equivalent to getting the snow cover building in Canada during OND. It's a little sick and twisted, but up there with your love for flooding. Hopefully Kevin's lawn is a scorched, crispy brown JJA. I used to love a hot summer when I was younger. My friend had a pool, so we just hang poolside all the time during summer. I find myself hating the heat now. I have the luxury of doing things like going to the beach and what not, but I hate the heat more and more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastBayWx Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 The Chinook Snow Eater 'New England Style' coming our way. Enjoy your piles and take pics tomorrow, because everyone south of the Mass Pike will being seeing more brown than white on the ground by Saturday morning. Foot plus ? ....no match for 50+ /50 and Heavy rain/ Fog/ high winds. This has melting of epic proportions written all over it. Get your tarps for the piles up and ready tomorrow night if your so inclined. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 I used to love a hot summer when I was younger. My friend had a pool, so we'd just let it all hang out poolside all the time during summer. I find myself hating the heat now. I have the luxury of doing things like going to the beach and what not, but I hate the heat more and more. Wow. I've heard you Eastern guys were liberal. Good for you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 25/8, looks like a net gain to the snowpack here by midnight Fri. Nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 25/8, looks like a net gain to the snowpack here by midnight Fri. Nice. I hope so for your sake and especially for the VT and NH resorts but this one is looking risky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 I used to love a hot summer when I was younger. My friend had a pool, so we just hang poolside all the time during summer. I find myself hating the heat now. I have the luxury of doing things like going to the beach and what not, but I hate the heat more and more. Do the Euro ens look good in the long range or should I start growing out my hair and waxing my frisbees? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Well as we head into Spring, the -NAO actually correlates to a se ridge...say from April on. Last year we had a strong -NAO but what happened was that Quebec torched in March. Our airmass was coming from the north and northwest...over areas that had bare ground. Normally, this area is snow covered through April. As a result, airmass was modified and warm spring resulted. We also saw Nina rapidly develop along with a se ridge. This also kept backdoor fronts well to our northeast. Another reason why we torched. In Spring, wavelengths shorten so things like a +PNA and -NAO don't always correlate to values that we see in January. I would think you'd want some sort of -PNA or trough in the west, and a +NAO, if you want mild condiitons. I think a strong +NAO can hurt us in Spring as well..so we need to be careful of that. Thanks. Gives me something to get my head around trying to learn some of this stuff. When I say mild spring I am certainly not looking for a torch rather those pleasant days in the 60's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 24, 2011 Author Share Posted February 24, 2011 Do the Euro ens look good in the long range or should I start growing out my hair and waxing my frisbees? LOL, well it's not bad in the 11-15 day, but like I said..it's done this before...only to warm up. I have low confidence as to what will happen, but also concerned too. Just hope for the best, but be realistic as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Man, Everytime i come in here today i want to take a bottle of valium and wash it down with a fith of Jack.........lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 LOL, well it's not bad in the 11-15 day, but like I said..it's done this before...only to warm up. I have low confidence as to what will happen, but also concerned too. Just hope for the best, but be realistic as well. Thanks. I'm not sold at all on the epic March. Hopefully we can get 2-3 SWFE 5-8'' type deals, but I'm certainly not expecting anything close to January. Especially since the first week is going to blow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 I hope so for your sake and especially for the VT and NH resorts but this one is looking risky. Nah, ski areas will be fine. Already cancelled work Friday for skiing. Man, Everytime i come in here today i want to take a bottle of valium and wash it down with a fith of Jack.........lol I know, unbearable really. Meanwhile another beautiful Winter day slips by for the computer jockeys that insist Winter is over. Glad I'll be skiing for another couple months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 24, 2011 Author Share Posted February 24, 2011 Man, Everytime i come in here today i want to take a bottle of valium and wash it down with a fith of Jack.........lol I know..lol, but it's a little easier for you to say, since you got some winter wx coming. Hopefully the pattern swings around after the end of next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Nah, ski areas will be fine. Already cancelled work Friday for skiing. I know, unbearable really. Meanwhile another beautiful Winter day slips by for the computer jockeys that insist Winter is over. Glad I'll be skiing for another couple months. Yeah and snowmobiling season continues up here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 I know..lol, but it's a little easier for you to say, since you got some winter wx coming. Hopefully the pattern swings around after the end of next week. Oh i fully know, I have been there, It suxs, But you guys had a great run, And it could not go on forever, Just some have a hard time letting it go, Lets hope it come around for a few more snow storms before it ends for all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Man, Everytime i come in here today i want to take a bottle of valium and wash it down with a fith of Jack.........lol The Jack and 'Zac (prozac) combo will also wash the no snow blues away. j/k I really do hope NNE gets their due. I've got a trip to Sugarloaf planned in 2 weeks and I'd love enough snow to ski the new glade terrain. The back country touring around here is getting somewhat brutal and could use either a refresher or some days in the 40's to soften it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Yeah and snowmobiling season continues up here I was on the trails this afternoon to get in some skiing. The snowmobile is just such a great way to access hidden steeps. Great winter continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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