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Going forward into March


CoastalWx

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Helluva inversion in my neck of the woods, 850 at 75 surface at 15

yeah southerly events tend to suck regardless of calendar but this is just about the worst time of year for them.

that said, when you see 80+ knots at 925 mb (as the 18z nam has for example) it makes you wonder.

maybe the top of the cape wind tower or the buzzards bay entrance tower is gusting to like 60 knots while the surface is 35 knots. i don't know.

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??? didn't it change from tracking over ALB to tracking over BOS - seems like a major shift, and about the same as the GFS shifted to meet in the middle. Maybe even more of a shift toward the GFS - end result is rain which makes it seem like the euro is "right" since the GFS showed snow. But as far as track, they were both pretty bad.

i think some of it depends on what part of the track you look at. it's always been through OH/PA/NY to varying degrees. i think the euro still goes pretty much over alb...maybe a hair southeast of alb...it just takes more of a ENE heading from there. it came east from some of those runs days and days ago that were near cleveland and buffalo i suppose...but it always held firm to a apps or west of apps track.

remember the gfs as late as yesterday was moving east off of NJ.

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I personally love February and March snows. At this point, who the heck cares about staying power? I want spring eventually, and as much as we joke about it, I DON'T want to have huge snow piles hanging around through May.

February and March snows are more often on the wetter side, covering everything in white. And then instead of dirty snow hanging around for the next three months, it all melts within the next week, saving us from that abismal sight.

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I have mentioned this in the past, but on November 11 we pass into the dark ages, and Feb 10, we pass back out and into the bright ages. I have noticed year to year, cars don't heat up parked over blacktop on sunny days between Nov 11 - Feb 10 (appr). Snow banks don't disappear on cold sunny days between those dates, either. Subtlties of this physical characteristics to the surroundings are not as susceptible to the sun, in general. After Feb 10, cars heat up. Snow banks erode back away from the sun even on days less than freezing, such as what you described of your brother.

For me, the first day of spring is the first day the sun becomes a competitive compensator. It is around that date (some may even argue sooner, but I don't observe it as distinctly) one can tack 3-5F on a given forecast high outside of falling precipitation and probably do fairly well.

What was upsetting - but now I am long over (like Kevin is failing to accept) - is that the big snow pattern has been dead for a while. More importanly, it had to go and die just about right on top of Feb 10 this year! That sucked, because as a Meteorologist I knew/know that by the time any "winter lull" would end, it is ending IN spring for all intents and purposes. Now your really steeped in futility -

Some years, the pattern compensates for this early returing irradiance rather nicely, and spoils may linger into March...even the first week of April, rarely. But even during those, you are not holding onto pack/pack resistance like prior to Feb 10. But, at least during those years you get to hide in delusion over accepting despair and moving on. For some they prefer that; for me, I'd rather it just surges like this dreamy extended 12z Euro run.

Does this also apply to western Mass. as well? I think a few would argue otherwise.

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Having that -nao and blocking was so important in a nina, I really thought March was going to rock, I think we can write off at least the first week maybe ten days especially south of the pike, hopefully the interior can get a couple snow bombs. But, its really been a quick deterioration in guidance the last few days regarding the long term.

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Does this also apply to western Mass. as well? I think a few would argue otherwise.

This point is sun and latitude, so everywhere along the 40th parallel (or whatever latitude line in question). That said, this is off-set by temperature, and that is why western Mass is slower (assuming so). But it is not 0 effecting, either. I bet there is measureable difference there, too, just harder to detect.

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i fully admit to having a wind fetish...no different than ray has a CF fetish...kev has a snowpack fetish...wiz has a severe fetish...ginx has a sandbagging fetish...messenger has a lawn mowing fetish...etc etc.

this is awesome (nam @ 925 mb):

post-218-0-87734000-1298493713.png

I also have a lesser known, intensifying-at-landfall, cane fetish.

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Me thinks the spring birds might sh it their nests after the first week of March. For the posters who scream high sun angle melting etc, take a look back at some snowy March daily depths, things can change in a heartbeat with the mega cold nearby. I am now firmly believing the AO starts to tank and the NAO follows after the first week of March. JMHO

ao.sprd2.gif

:yikes:

nao.sprd2.gif

:yikes:

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i fully admit to having a wind fetish...no different than ray has a CF fetish...kev has a snowpack fetish...wiz has a severe fetish...ginx has a sandbagging fetish...messenger has a lawn mowing fetish...etc etc.

this is awesome (nam @ 925 mb):

post-218-0-87734000-1298493713.png

That is pretty sick. 80+ kts of wind at 925 is very impressive. That should be a fun aspect to track over the next day or two.

Oh and I have an upslope fetish that no one knows about, lol :arrowhead:

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Hey Tip,

Great post and I love your idead of the irradiation calendar as it oultines in amuch better way..the true seasons and this deliniations. Is that NOV 10 "dark ages" date established by a combination of the angle of insolation as well as distance from the sun..or just one of those variables?

not sure if you could use an irradiation calendar considering that all regions would need different calendars.

its pathetic that the Poconos cant hold onto snow in february. simply pathetic.

having said that, im all for heading straight to spring given the pathetic winter we've had up here....but alas that will not come to be.

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If winter ends this week there is not much I can do about it and why get upset. Sad but at least we had a great run.

What would upset me despite my knowing there is nothing I can do about it would be a scenario where we torch out for March/April and then have a cold wet May and June. Uhg! Nothing worse in my book.

Might be time for someone to start a spring / summer outlook thread just to see what the mets are thinking.

:whistle:

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i think some of it depends on what part of the track you look at. it's always been through OH/PA/NY to varying degrees. i think the euro still goes pretty much over alb...maybe a hair southeast of alb...it just takes more of a ENE heading from there. it came east from some of those runs days and days ago that were near cleveland and buffalo i suppose...but it always held firm to a apps or west of apps track.

remember the gfs as late as yesterday was moving east off of NJ.

Ahhh so the Euro is more like what the NAM just showed, take back what I said then, that is some really heavy rain and warmth on the NAM wow. Many are banking on the 35 F lock in with a move ene around white plains/ POU but it seems like the 50 F+ amped up ALB runner is still on the table.

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