Typhoon Tip Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 <br /><br /><br /> If this doesn't give us the impetus to get off oil nothing will. My optimism about March is waning....we'll see but things are looking worse by the run and the sands of time is running. It's been a heckuva run and maybe we'll get some snow over the weekend..beyond that we'll see. Nice - but I tried to explain this to people 10 days ago - haha. Actually, didn't 2/3rds of the big snow hit in March in 1717. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Benchmarkbuoy Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 seems we are all coming to the same consensus here which is what I have been trying to say on this board for the past three weeks. I know we all tried to get ways to convince ourselves that the torch would be "meh" but it wasn't it was in the mid 50's to low 60's everywhere...we tried to find something in the medium to long range that would "bring winter back in late feb and early March, and now we are realizing that when this pattern changed it was not some one week disruption...itwas as major..if not more of a major change that gave use the 5 week snow bonanza. JB and other mets were not touting it as the pattern change that would "break the back of winter" for nothing. He said that when it happened it was a 4-6 week telconnection, planetary shift that would settle in and cause every major storm (outside of a few clippers) to be on the warm side in the mid atlantic and southern new england (elevation excluded). Well since that change occured...east of worcester has seen less than 4 inches of snow over the past month and even that came in one inch increments with a lot of mixing and rain. Now that this looks to be showing that it will continue well into March...I just hope that it just keeps going straight into spring becuase if it snaps back to have that deep trough in the east then we will have one of those awful springs where we get wet snow that doesn't accumulate and a ton of rain with temps in the 40's instead of the 60's. This winter was spectacular for the month that mattered...january. but it does feel a lot different then those other winters when we got over 60 inches of snow that was spread out over many 4-8 inch storms that took place in all three months of the meteorological winter. This was much more of a massive three and a half week snow blitz bookended by close to nothing on either side. I never realized how much I dislike February and March snow...it just has no staying power what so ever...evne here in the heart of February...my brother in the Poconos had 10 inches two day ago which is a pretty significant storm that is about 80% gone already even though the temps at night are in the single digits and the highs are in the low 30's! The snow stands zero chance this time of year the second the sun comes out. I was wondering if people had the choice...would you rather have 60 inches over one month of have it spread out over three. I think that this winter is the optimal choice to have it fall all at once during the coldest month to accumulate the snowpack that we had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 wow does the extended Euro end winter abruptly... . 60-70F given that synoptic appeal... Somethin' tells me we get a 30" on March 25th after 2-3 weeks of crockus shooting, Kevin rafter swingin' balm - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 wow does the extended Euro end winter abruptly... . 60-70F given that synoptic appeal... Somethin' tells me we get a 30" on March 25th after 2-3 weeks of crockus shooting, Kevin rafter swingin' balm - Is it really that bad? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chim chiminey Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Does anyone know what the weather like in the week or two before the GS of 1717? I know overall the winter was big in dec and jan, just curious about how Feb was leading up to it. Wikipedia says nothing about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Is it really that bad? it's not good. LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 it's not good. LOL. I knew it would be unfavorable but not to that extent, well, here is hoping to a white st patricks day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 I guess its no surprise saw the gfs and euro ens jerry had posted and it was ugly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 pretty neat obs around SNE today. check out what mixing does...look at those Td readings! Groton is 42/-11F !! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 it's not good. LOL. How bad? I think we better enjoy our ice sports and skiing now. bad feeling aside of that brief period around 3/9 it's ugly. DT Wxrisk for the Big FTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 We should set up a sne golf/beer G2G in mid march! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Thunderstorms with strong to severe winds Monday afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Just because you're on a diet, doesn't mean you can't look at the menu. Haha, just like getting married doesn't mean going blind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 seems we are all coming to the same consensus here which is what I have been trying to say on this board for the past three weeks. I know we all tried to get ways to convince ourselves that the torch would be "meh" but it wasn't it was in the mid 50's to low 60's everywhere...we tried to find something in the medium to long range that would "bring winter back in late feb and early March, and now we are realizing that when this pattern changed it was not some one week disruption...itwas as major..if not more of a major change that gave use the 5 week snow bonanza. JB and other mets were not touting it as the pattern change that would "break the back of winter" for nothing. He said that when it happened it was a 4-6 week telconnection, planetary shift that would settle in and cause every major storm (outside of a few clippers) to be on the warm side in the mid atlantic and southern new england (elevation excluded). Well since that change occured...east of worcester has seen less than 4 inches of snow over the past month and even that came in one inch increments with a lot of mixing and rain. Now that this looks to be showing that it will continue well into March...I just hope that it just keeps going straight into spring becuase if it snaps back to have that deep trough in the east then we will have one of those awful springs where we get wet snow that doesn't accumulate and a ton of rain with temps in the 40's instead of the 60's. This winter was spectacular for the month that mattered...january. but it does feel a lot different then those other winters when we got over 60 inches of snow that was spread out over many 4-8 inch storms that took place in all three months of the meteorological winter. This was much more of a massive three and a half week snow blitz bookended by close to nothing on either side. I never realized how much I dislike February and March snow...it just has no staying power what so ever...evne here in the heart of February...my brother in the Poconos had 10 inches two day ago which is a pretty significant storm that is about 80% gone already even though the temps at night are in the single digits and the highs are in the low 30's! The snow stands zero chance this time of year the second the sun comes out. I was wondering if people had the choice...would you rather have 60 inches over one month of have it spread out over three. I think that this winter is the optimal choice to have it fall all at once during the coldest month to accumulate the snowpack that we had. Yes, we have been collectively discussing the futility of snow past the 10th of February for weeks now actually... Today, at lunch, I entered my automobile and it was around 85F in there, and 33F on the car thermometer rollin' on down the street. The sun really takes over past ~the 10th of February every year. Interesting note to that: NWS defines winter as Dec 1 - Feb 28th (29th on the leap year). Spring as Mar 1 - May 31. Summer and autumn with the same 3-month timespans. I am not sure precisely why they do this, but it may be "neatness" with regard to annum. Or, perhaps there is a climatological distinction in there - that could very well be, considering the difference, annually, between Mar 1 and Apr 1 is huge. Much in the same way Aug - 31 is big compared to Sept 30, so in a sense it is reasonable to just assign the seasonal breaks at these difused temperature boundaries. The Julian calendric scale is of course the 21st of the given months, for the Equinoxes and Solstici, but that is derived from geometric distinction of when the sun's eqclyptic passes over the equator, and/or aligns with the tropics of Cancer and Capricorn respectively - which is skewed as we know, relative to the changing of the seasons climatologically, and therefore, less accurate for determining seasonal change. I think there could be a 3rd calendar based purely on solar irradiance. I have mentioned this in the past, but on November 11 we pass into the dark ages, and Feb 10, we pass back out and into the bright ages. I have noticed year to year, cars don't heat up parked over blacktop on sunny days between Nov 11 - Feb 10 (appr). Snow banks don't disappear on cold sunny days between those dates, either. Subtlties of this physical characteristics to the surroundings are not as susceptible to the sun, in general. After Feb 10, cars heat up. Snow banks erode back away from the sun even on days less than freezing, such as what you described of your brother. For me, the first day of spring is the first day the sun becomes a competitive compensator. It is around that date (some may even argue sooner, but I don't observe it as distinctly) one can tack 3-5F on a given forecast high outside of falling precipitation and probably do fairly well. What was upsetting - but now I am long over (like Kevin is failing to accept) - is that the big snow pattern has been dead for a while. More importanly, it had to go and die just about right on top of Feb 10 this year! That sucked, because as a Meteorologist I knew/know that by the time any "winter lull" would end, it is ending IN spring for all intents and purposes. Now your really steeped in futility - Some years, the pattern compensates for this early returing irradiance rather nicely, and spoils may linger into March...even the first week of April, rarely. But even during those, you are not holding onto pack/pack resistance like prior to Feb 10. But, at least during those years you get to hide in delusion over accepting despair and moving on. For some they prefer that; for me, I'd rather it just surges like this dreamy extended 12z Euro run. Lastly, did anyone remember how the NAO rose nearing the end of February last year, and almost in tandem positive temperature anomalies set in over eastern N/A ... .Those actually lasted 10 months - 10 MONTHS! Wow. It is interesting that the NAO has again chosen this time of year to rise; one must wonder if that is some kind of map as to where we are heading. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 23, 2011 Author Share Posted February 23, 2011 Man, my thread become a disaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 despite an isothermal to basically inverted profile...nam and gfs have a big wind event for far SE areas on friday. this was really picked up on nicely by the euro over the last few days. the llj just flat out cranks ahead of this system. 75 to 95 knots (in that range on all guidance) between 950 and 850 mbs. that is ripping. 40 knot winds come basically right down to the ground - gfs actually has 10-m winds sustained at 41 knots at HYA and 43 knots at CHH. this time of year it is really tough to maximize wind events in a southerly flow but that kind of jet is anomalous. not sure exactly how it plays out at the surface yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 i just wrote an extraordinarily long post...again. i know. why do you keep doing that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Man, my thread become a disaster. ....18z NAM coming in well SE of Edmonton Alberta. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Man, my thread become a disaster. Think Spring© Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Benchmarkbuoy Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Hey Tip, Great post and I love your idead of the irradiation calendar as it oultines in amuch better way..the true seasons and this deliniations. Is that NOV 10 "dark ages" date established by a combination of the angle of insolation as well as distance from the sun..or just one of those variables? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 i know. why do you keep doing that? Because I like to write - don't read it then. And why do you have to be told "don't read it then"? it's like i'm up to my neck in more nuts than a fruit cake around here - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Euro says endless spring peepers from the looks of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Lastly, did anyone remember how the NAO rose nearing the end of February last year, and almost in tandem positive temperature anomalies set in over eastern N/A ... .Those actually lasted 10 months - 10 MONTHS! Wow. It is interesting that the NAO has again chosen this time of year to rise; one must wonder if that is some kind of map as to where we are heading. Tip, do you think we go into a prolonged -nao again next winter in about the same time frame as this winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 despite an isothermal to basically inverted profile...nam and gfs have a big wind event for far SE areas on friday. this was really picked up on nicely by the euro over the last few days. the llj just flat out cranks ahead of this system. 75 to 95 knots (in that range on all guidance) between 950 and 850 mbs. that is ripping. 40 knot winds come basically right down to the ground - gfs actually has 10-m winds sustained at 41 knots at HYA and 43 knots at CHH. this time of year it is really tough to maximize wind events in a southerly flow but that kind of jet is anomalous. not sure exactly how it plays out at the surface yet. Helluva inversion in my neck of the woods, 850 at 75 surface at 15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Hey Tip, Great post and I love your idead of the irradiation calendar as it oultines in amuch better way..the true seasons and this deliniations. Is that NOV 10 "dark ages" date established by a combination of the angle of insolation as well as distance from the sun..or just one of those variables? I used to notice the same amount of drop off, as is gained, respective of Nov 11 and Feb 10. But, if you do the arithmetic, both those dates are about equi-distant on either side of the Solstice. Angle does effectively lower or raise insolation because the atmosphere is a relative insolator for both temperature and the electromagnetic spectrum. So it makes sense that some threshold angle(s) might be considerable here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Because I like to write - don't read it then. And why do you have to be told "don't read it then"? it's like i'm up to my neck in more nuts than a fruit cake around here - it was a JOKE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Will cripple the economy. Horrible. at least it is still winter by calender Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Yikes, 18z NAM at 996mb over Pittsburgh... that better translate more east than north over the next few panels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Me thinks the spring birds might sh it their nests after the first week of March. For the posters who scream high sun angle melting etc, take a look back at some snowy March daily depths, things can change in a heartbeat with the mega cold nearby. I am now firmly believing the AO starts to tank and the NAO follows after the first week of March. JMHO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Its probably moved the least of all guidance though. We always knew it would come se a bit. ??? didn't it change from tracking over ALB to tracking over BOS - seems like a major shift, and about the same as the GFS shifted to meet in the middle. Maybe even more of a shift toward the GFS - end result is rain which makes it seem like the euro is "right" since the GFS showed snow. But as far as track, they were both pretty bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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