Damage In Tolland Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Eh, Its the GGEM, I am more interested in the Doc... Plus as many have said a track over ALB thru the Berks to Maine almost never happens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 You keep talking like no one is going to get snow out of this... Logan11's area near ALB up through all of our Lebanon/Dartmouth/Hanover dwellers, over to Dendrite, Dryslot & the Mainers. Not to mention folks like Moneypitmike and Pete in the Berkshires who will likely pick up a net gain. All of us in CNE and NNE should've reacted like this when SNE was getting its record snows as we watched from the outside, lol. Anyway.... Anyone notice the front running QPF some of the models are spitting out tomorrow evening? I know its not much, but the old ETA (I still love that model), GGEM, and now NAM have been insistent on some light QPF working in as snow across parts of New England tomorrow evening. NAM and ETA have both been showing .25-.5" QPF for some on this front-end wave, and although the geographic area is small, someone could still pick up a quick 3-5" tomorrow evening/night before the main event shows up: You missed my latter posts - and no, there is no bias from me. You're reading in too deeply and assigning that interpretation - probably because I am not foreacsting a foot of snow for everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 It's almost annoying to talk about since it's so far out...but yeah there's been something signaled there. I know but the talk of the impending snowy pattern is starting to die off as hope is slipping...just figured I'd throw it out there. When these winters shut down in SNE they shut down...comically so as they torment us on the way out. Tip's been pretty good in cutting this up the last few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Well I'm out for the afternoon. I don't think this next system will have too much impact on most of SNE...maybe some front end snow (esp high terrain) and then perhaps a marginal ice for N ORH cty/Monads/Berks...rain everywhere else in SNE. We'll have to watch maybe the SNE/CNE gray area for some more significant snow, but I think all of that will end up further north...but its not totally out of the question. Hopefully Euro looks decent for Sunday advisory potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Eh, Its the GGEM, I am more interested in the Doc... True enough. Another south shimmy by Doc would be appreciated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 I'm feeling pretty bullish on March starting out like a lion across the Northern Tier of the U.S., with Arctic intrusions across the Northern Plains, Great Lakes and Northeast being common through the Ides of March. The establishment of the Hudson Bay vortex in concert with a tropically forced ridge over the Aleutians/GoA should do the trick. The questions are how far south will the cold get and whether the cold will be timed correctly to produce snow. I think places like MSP, MKE, DTW, ALB, and ORH should do well through the first two weeks of the month. ORD, IND, CMH, PIT, and PHL should be in the battle ground. I'd expect those places to see a pattern of warm/wet followed by cold/dry. Anyone know who this met is? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Plus as many have said a track over ALB thru the Berks to Maine almost never happens Exactly, That's what i said yesterday when it showed the low going from ALB to BGR, Not going to happen.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 On a positive note, sure is a beautiful day out there! 33 sunny light winds, should make a run at 37 38 today after 34 yesterday. back to the sharpener. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 23, 2011 Author Share Posted February 23, 2011 Anyone know who this met is? Yeah Adam, he's a big tropical guy. This could def be epic for the Midwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 One would think a flood advisory be necessary. Frozen ground and snow that is granular and not really the obsorbing type means quick responder streams and tributaries may be at risk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Exactly, That's what i said yesterday when it showed the low going from ALB to BGR, Not going to happen.. I think most would be surprised if this thing didn't end up south BOS as it exits stage right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 It means I keep my snowpack and possibly even prolonged icing You aren't getting prolonged icing in N CT. I honestly don't care, at this point.....this pack and pattern is skunked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Yeah Adam, he's a big tropical guy. This could def be epic for the Midwest. Is he a younger met or experienced in long range at all? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 You aren't getting prolonged icing in N CT. I honestly don't care, at this point.....this pack and pattern is skunked. Why are you bumping posts from 6:00 this morning ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 So you don't agree with the SE Mass track ? Eh...I don't know. I do think it goes north of me at least. I could see that ggem track being close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 23, 2011 Author Share Posted February 23, 2011 Is he a younger met or experienced in long range at all? I think he's younger but knows his stuff. He was talking about the Midwest wasn't he?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 I think he's younger but knows his stuff. He was talking about the Midwest wasn't he?? No the northern tier from MSP to ORH to BOS snowy overall..and PIT to PHIL wet warm then dry cold..implying battle ground is north of Philly to BOS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Why are you bumping posts from 6:00 this morning ? Because I have been away from the comp all day and was catching up. It's gonna track over se MA and anything remotely interesting will be confined to log cabins in n ORH co and GC.....some don't like to here that, but it just is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Because I have been away from the comp all day and was catching up. It's gonna track over se MA and anything remotely interesting will be confined to log cabins in n ORH co and GC.....some don't like to here that, but it just is. Would you say this is FACT? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 12z ggem looks like the euro now...E OH to NE PA to W MA to downeast ME Visual aids.... I think this is wrong, but it would be great for MBY. I still like NYC-BOS track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 I think most would be surprised if this thing didn't end up south BOS as it exits stage right BOS, GOM, Bay of Fundy or southern tip of Novi track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 23, 2011 Author Share Posted February 23, 2011 No the northern tier from MSP to ORH to BOS snowy overall..and PIT to PHIL wet warm then dry cold..implying battle ground is north of Philly to BOS Well the first week might not be all that great here. I think after the 5th and more like the second week is a better chance around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Would you say this is FACT? I would say you are WEENIE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Is he a younger met or experienced in long range at all? I worked with him in Bermuda. He's a long range tropical guy mainly...now works in PA and forecasts for clients who buy CAT bonds. He's good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 GGEM might imply some back side rain to snows like the NAM and lesser extent GFS has Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 GGEM might imply some back side rain to snows like the NAM and lesser extent GFS has It doesn't do much since the BL is reamed: http://wxcaster.com/gis-snow-overlays.php3?STATIONID=OKX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Well the first week might not be all that great here. I think after the 5th and more like the second week is a better chance around here. After we get past the March first inferno cutter..maybe after that one we can get everyone 's focus back on winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 At this stage, I'd go with a 12z GEM\ 12z GFS compromise, weigthed roughly 70\30 in favor of the latter......something very much along the lines of the 00z GEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 23, 2011 Author Share Posted February 23, 2011 After we get past the March first inferno cutter..maybe after that one we can get everyone 's focus back on winter Our focus has been on winter. Unfortunately, mother nature is not...well at least in sne. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Our focus has been on winter. Unfortunately, mother nature is not...well at least in sne. Man, I have taken bowel movements that are more interesting than that 12z GFS run......I'm quickly growing resigned to the fact that we are going to have to wait at least one week into March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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