klw Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 I haven't looked too much at Tuesday other than knowing it is a strong cutter. How warm is it compared to last week's torch and how wet does it get? Does it go far enough NW to avoid heavy precip in NE? Obviously just asking how it looks now- will assume some changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 "The RSM model is a direct, regional-model descendant of the NCEP/EMC Global Spectral Model (GSM), more commonly known as the Aviation Model (AVN) or the Medium-Range Forecast Model (MRF)." It doesn't look like the GFS, haha. lol at the 1"+ of QPF all the way to the Canadian border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Wow GFS showing a pretty big thunderstorm - damaging wind threat early next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Well, If next tues does not work out we may be back to a 0 gain after fri and sun events here anyways, But i don't think if next weeks storm ends up being a cutter that we will have seen the last one for the rest of march Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 "The RSM model is a direct, regional-model descendant of the NCEP/EMC Global Spectral Model (GSM), more commonly known as the Aviation Model (AVN) or the Medium-Range Forecast Model (MRF)." It doesn't look like the GFS, haha. lol at the 1"+ of QPF all the way to the Canadian border. The RSM hardly ever looks like the GFS. It producesa lot of good weenie solutions with its convective feedback at times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 SE MA is my bet. I posted that earlier and a met laughed at me and said no piece of guidance had that track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 The RSM hardly ever looks like the GFS. It producesa lot of good weenie solutions with its convective feedback at times. Haha yeah I know, it just found it funny that it is described as a descendent of the GFS. The ETA continues to hound this first burst of overrunning as a decent little event tomorrow evening... nice bulk of QPF moving across the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 23, 2011 Author Share Posted February 23, 2011 SE MA is my bet. I feel like this is Feb 4 or 5 all over again, at least wrt track. Maybe it's further west, but I think it scoots over srn CT and right near BOS. I guess for you guys, maybe an inch or two on the leading edge, and then a cold rain doesn't hurt the snowpack as much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 I posted that earlier and a met laughed at me and said no piece of guidance had that track. Most guidance has this crossing SE Mass, no? NYC to SE MA seems to be the concensus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 I posted that earlier and a met laughed at me and said no piece of guidance had that track. u said LI to Cape or ACK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Most guidance has this crossing SE Mass, no? NYC to SE MA seems to be the concensus. Yeah NYC to LI to the Cape seems to be the general concensus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Yeah NYC to LI to the Cape seems to be the general concensus. you mean model consensus? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Looks like the period around 3/8 to 3/12 is "it" for the next big snow threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 you mean model consensus? Met concensus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Met concensus gotcha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 gotcha lol I said model guidance. he's just pissed because people are talking about the rain this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Looks like a 4-5 day period where we may be able to make it happen centered around the 9th before the SE ridge rebuilds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 the sunday event looks great for the pike, south of 84 precip is light and boundary layer issues galore. looks like 1-3 from rev north and east into metro boston and north from there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 lol I said model guidance. he's just pissed because people are talking about the rain this weekend. Hopefully the Blackstone goes into heavy flood stage..Something to look forward to Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 I feel like this is Feb 4 or 5 all over again, at least wrt track. Maybe it's further west, but I think it scoots over srn CT and right near BOS. I guess for you guys, maybe an inch or two on the leading edge, and then a cold rain doesn't hurt the snowpack as much. If this storm isn't going to collapse condos, I'd just rather have 55F and rain. Get this ugly snowpack out of here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 23, 2011 Author Share Posted February 23, 2011 Met concensus You're not going to pucker up on your Camry's exhaust pipe, are you??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Looks like a 4-5 day period where we may be able to make it happen centered around the 9th before the SE ridge rebuilds. It's almost annoying to talk about since it's so far out...but yeah there's been something signaled there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 If this storm isn't going to collapse condos, I'd just rather have 55F and rain. Get this ugly snowpack out of here. Too bad we had that warmup, truly could have been a condo collapser with a 55F rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 You're not going to pucker up on your Camry's exhaust pipe, are you??? I'm not worried about this first storm at all. 1-3 tomorrow night..then maybe a little ice..then a mid 30's..maybe upper 30's rain..possibly ends as snow.. 2-4 Sunday and then we'll concern oursleves with next week. I know next week is a sure inferno cutter..so I've already mentally prepared for it..plus i should be up over 90 inches by Sunday night..knowing all I'll need is one or 2 more for 100. When it melts in March it doesn't bother me as much as it does during the true winter months. To me March isn't a true winter month for many diff reasons already discussed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 12z ggem looks like the euro now...E OH to NE PA to W MA to downeast ME Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 12z ggem looks like the euro now...E OH to NE PA to W MA to downeast ME That track may bring in some decent winds and possible low topped convection? Wonder how warm 2 meter temps get across sne. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 12z ggem looks like the euro now...E OH to NE PA to W MA to downeast ME So you don't agree with the SE Mass track ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 12z ggem looks like the euro now...E OH to NE PA to W MA to downeast ME I did not want to see a north nudge but it is not unexpected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chim chiminey Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 That track may bring in some decent winds and possible low topped convection? Wonder how warm 2 meter temps get across sne. could be a brief 3-4 hour surge of 50* Tds from orh and points east? does that model spit out that data? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 I did not want to see a north nudge but it is not unexpected. Eh, Its the GGEM, I am more interested in the Doc... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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