DomNH Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Just looking at the soundings. It is. Too bad it's a sucky model. 34F and rain here I come. Edit: Isothermal here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 23, 2011 Author Share Posted February 23, 2011 Too bad it's a sucky model. 34F and rain here I come. Edit: Isothermal here. Yeah it still might be to cold,but it still could be icy for parts of the area. It looks like the Canadian from yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 GFS is a maple mauler from here through the Monads and Berks. Yeah, heavy wet snow bomb from ALB through southern Greens (maybe extreme northern Berks/Taconics) and Manadnocks. Probably an elevation snow just north of the H85 freezing line, probably have to get to -3C at H85 before its an all-elevation type deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 GFS is one heck of an isothermal snow bomb for the interior Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 You keep talking like no one is going to get snow out of this... Logan11's area near ALB up through all of our Lebanon/Dartmouth/Hanover dwellers, over to Dendrite, Dryslot & the Mainers. Not to mention folks like Moneypitmike and Pete in the Berkshires who will likely pick up a net gain. All of us in CNE and NNE should've reacted like this when SNE was getting its record snows as we watched from the outside, lol. Anyway.... Anyone notice the front running QPF some of the models are spitting out tomorrow evening? I know its not much, but the old ETA (I still love that model), GGEM, and now NAM have been insistent on some light QPF working in as snow across parts of New England tomorrow evening. NAM and ETA have both been showing .25-.5" QPF for some on this front-end wave, and although the geographic area is small, someone could still pick up a quick 3-5" tomorrow evening/night before the main event shows up: Yeah it would seem much of interior SNE might be able to get 1-3 or tomorrow night..that has been showing up on most of the guidance for a day or 2. BL might be tough for some folks close to coast and /or valleys Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Euro showed the 1-3" on the front end tomorrow night. I think the hills could definitely see that. I'm getting increasingly worried about marginal icing in the hills of N ORH/Monads/Berkshires. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Yeah, heavy wet snow bomb from ALB through southern Greens (maybe extreme northern Berks/Taconics) and Manadnocks. Probably an elevation snow just north of the H85 freezing line, probably have to get to -3C at H85 before its an all-elevation type deal. i guess i'd be surprised if you guys don't taint on at at least one event here in the next few weeks but man, overall, i'd like to be in your shoes for the next month or so. obviously no one knows how it plays out, but you must like where you're sitting right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Euro showed the 1-3" on the front end tomorrow night. I think the hills could definitely see that. I'm getting increasingly worried about marginal icing in the hills of N ORH/Monads/Berkshires. Where are you thinking as far as storm track? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 23, 2011 Author Share Posted February 23, 2011 Yeah it would seem much of interior SNE might be able to get 1-3 or tomorrow night..that has been showing up on most of the guidance for a day or 2. BL might be tough for some folks close to coast and /or valleys That's been signaled for about a day or so. Might be more to the north, but it could also be many areas near and north of the Pike..even to the coast, like Ray. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 One of the interesting things that has been fairly consistent this winter is that whenever we've gotten mix or rain events here they have often been preceded by really cold temps. Forecast low tonight here for instance is 6F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 23, 2011 Author Share Posted February 23, 2011 Decent overrunning event on the GFS for Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Getting warning criteria snows with this is still looking very hard... there will likely be a thin band of counties that are able to achieve the required 7"/12hr or 9"/24hr criteria (I think that's ALB's and BTV's criteria), but it'll be close as the heaviest precip is certainly in the warm sector with this one. Maybe some of the higher terrain spots just north of the H85 freezing line can achieve warning snows but you go even a little bit north of the changeover line and QPF drops to more advisory level stuff (.25-.75). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 23, 2011 Author Share Posted February 23, 2011 Still a pretty ugly cutter on the GFS. Might be a wrist cutter for some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Thats why you guys made your own thread, if we do that we get chastised. This is a New England forum, You and a few others go into our thread as well as we do yours, I know it sucks when you have had an epic winter so far that it looks like the next couple will be or may be rain for most, I am expecting the one on tues to be a mess unless we can shift this track east over the next couple of days. I don't think for the most part you get chastised, I will admit. Outside of a some regulars on here, There were some that would throw some dirt around that ruffled some that are no longer posting because the threats have gone by the wayside for snow, But you won't get anything from most of us up here as we got pretty humbled after last year and i will take whatever comes along here. I don't have a jackpot fetish because i seldom do, It is even more rare to get storms over 20" here, So i never expect to, But i will get a snow load of lt/mod events and thats how we accumalate it here, I think hopefully after the 1st week of march you guys will still see some snow, Just not to the epic proportions that you had, And if anyone expects that down there they should no better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 i guess i'd be surprised if you guys don't taint on at at least one event here in the next few weeks but man, overall, i'd like to be in your shoes for the next month or so. obviously no one knows how it plays out, but you must like where you're sitting right now. Yeah, I guess so. I think we rain early next week and I really don't see anyway for that to work out as anything but a mixed mess to pouring rain. I really would like to be about 40 miles south for this next storm... still think central VT in the RUT-LEB area is the jackpot. It is getting to the time of year though where we start to see more action in NNE. Dec and Jan are hard to get good synoptic snows sometimes because the jet stream is usually at its furthest south point... and now as we head into March, climo says things will be more active in our neck of the woods, rather than south of us in the mid-Atlantic and SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 February always looked skeptical. Nothing new here. Early March was up in the air with mixed signals. I certainly would not have said it looked horrible 10 days ago, unless I was trolling. You are correct, anyone who claimed horrible was trolling. But anyone claiming possible problems with significant winter storms is NOT trolling and that is an important distinction. It's been quite cold aside the mild dry days we have had - so an utter disaster was never really in the cards either. February, to anyone unbiased and honest with themselves, looked skeptical to start the month, but as we went through until about V-Day the signals were clear. There have been no consistently modeled features that would bring back a cold and snowy pattern. General highlights- Nina, +NAO, +AO, Trof across W CONUS, PV up near HUdsons Bay..yuck...still people want to find cold and snow out of the pattern, which is fine, however it's not what we want and there have been ZERO indications of that changing. Again, call it trolling if that is what makes people feel better and keeps the spirits high, but that does not change the forecast or sensible wx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 23, 2011 Author Share Posted February 23, 2011 Ray would be challenged on his bet if the GFS is right, thanks to Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Because people have been spoiled that it came to a grinding halt after Feb 2. Yeah you had that 4" snow, but overall we hit the brakes. The other things is that we could have 2-4" of rain in the next week, so I don't see the harm in talking about the consequences in that. For me it's more than the 1.2" snowbomb of a few days ago looked like a solid advisory/possible low end warning event at this range too. I hope it snows up north with round 1 and that round 2 isn't a miss. This is exactly what I expect the rest of the winter, up and down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Only another 90 minutes until the Euro slaps GC and SNH folks back to reality. Can't wait. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Still a pretty ugly cutter on the GFS. Might be a wrist cutter for some. yeah that's a hideous storm. I'm going to Killington next Sat/Sun so I'm hoping for something decent to freshen up the slopes next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Only another 90 minutes until the Euro slaps GC and SNH folks back to reality. Can't wait. For when? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 yeah that's a hideous storm. I'm going to Killington next Sat/Sun so I'm hoping for something decent to freshen up the slopes next week. more tstms for the wizzinator. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 For when? Friday. Not saying that I buy the birch buster on the GFS, but it would be nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 GFS is interesting, but I wouldn't give it much weight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 more tstms for the wizzinator. Great... I can wait to see him running up and down the street holding an anemometer in one hand and a 40 in the other Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Only another 90 minutes until the Euro slaps GC and SNH folks back to reality. Can't wait. I think it was Dendrite who said yesterday that that GFS wont' shift north in one big swoop... it'll keep ticking north getting another group of posters excited before the next run moves another few miles north. He nailed that call. You guys aren't out of the game and are certainly going to get some snow... it'll be a fine line and if I were in your neck of the woods, I'd really want some elevation in the marginal soundings, but maybe the lower elevations do ok. I could see a 32F snow bomb at 1,500ft and 34F snow/rain at 500ft or less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 23, 2011 Author Share Posted February 23, 2011 You are correct, anyone who claimed horrible was trolling. But anyone claiming possible problems with significant winter storms is NOT trolling, again that is an important distinction. It's been quite cold aside the mild dry days we have had - so an utter disaster was never really in the cards either. February, to anyone unbiased and honest with themselves, looked skeptical to start the month, but as we went through until about V-Day the signals were clear. There have been no consistently modeled features that would bring back a cold and snowy pattern. General highlights- Nina, +NAO, +AO, Trof across W CONUS, PV up near HUdsons Bay..yuck...still people want to find cold and snow out of the pattern, which is fine, however it's not what we want and there have been ZERO indications of that changing. Again, call it trolling if that is what makes people feel better and keeps the spirits high, but that does not change the forecast or sensible wx Right, but who said February would be epic? I think it's played out the way we thought. Perhaps not ending on a high note, but it seems as planned. March is too early to call, but I think we mentioned the problems it may start out with, and possibly have for quite a while. Little nuances in the storm track will probably be the deciding factor, but I wouldn't be down on March as a dead ratter right now especially up where you are. Are there concerns, yes and that's why I stated at the beginning that I wasn't on board the epic train, yet. Are there some + signs, yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Friday. Not saying that I buy the birch buster on the GFS, but it would be nice. I'm not sold on Fri but hopefully it works out. That cutter next Mon is truly a disaster, esp with more fresh snowpack if that occurs Fri-Sun.. We be throwin' the F word around.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 I think it was Dendrite who said yesterday that that GFS wont' shift north in one big swoop... it'll keep ticking north getting another group of posters excited before the next run moves another few miles north. He nailed that call. You guys aren't out of the game and are certainly going to get some snow... it'll be a fine line and if I were in your neck of the woods, I'd really want some elevation in the marginal soundings, but maybe the lower elevations do ok. I could see a 32F snow bomb at 1,500ft and 34F snow/rain at 500ft or less. Yeah. It actually came a bit SE of 6z though, which is the semi-interesting part. Probably just delaying the inevitable though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Where are you thinking as far as storm track? SE MA is my bet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.