Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Pete and Hunchie get 4-6 front end dump before the deluge. Between 2 and 6 inches of water tied upon the pack. Cold 1.5 rain for all of SNE with dews near 40 , quick intense hitter. Results should be a rapid increase in rivers that are at or above their median flows. Unlike most springs SNE rivers are chocked with ice. Ice jamming could become an issue if not with this storm then the intense cutter next week. I would expect some pretty good urban flooding in areas with deep snow, snow melt should be on the order of 50-65% due to the lower dews and lower temps. If there is a higher dew point assimilation then melting would become greater. Next weeks warmer intense cover will probably result in a fully ripened pack releasing in spring floods. JMHO, again ICE jams are the wildcards. http://waterdata.usg...rent/?type=flow It's tough to ice in the day after Feb 20th ...or thereabouts. The solar contribution will make accreting difficult even as low as 31.5 - I have seen light zr stop accreting at that temperature in March before, and the ice on car windows starts to crack. At night - sure, different story. This system would have probably been a nice warning ice storm for a large area if this were a month ago. Given to the consensus storm track beginning to emerge S of the Pike. That will instantiated a llv ageostrophic response either way - the question is, is that flow pulling down 30F DP, or 3 days of intense solar processed rotten polar air at 33F to absolutely maximize the misery of it all ... Jokes on me! I've been bitching and whining all week about wanting winter to end, hoping that this wouldn't snow - now, this is how the devil works. Ha ha. This way NO ONE gets to be happy. Great. One thing that's clear is how damaging the PNA has been. I guess of course it's tied to the NAO as well but it's brutal. It's weird in a way as we are really tending to extremes especially in winters now. Shame. I am not as negative on next week as a lot of you. I think we should wait to see how it plays out but I guess also I'm no longer talking about MBY....I rate anything that dumps on ski country from CVT to Loon to SR as a positive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 ... Jokes on me! I've been bitching and whining all week about wanting winter to end, hoping that this wouldn't snow - now, this is how the devil works. Ha ha. This way NO ONE gets to be happy. Great. Classic!! So if you were skiing tomorrow and wanted to be in the western Berks for the early part of the storm where would you want to be and how early is it going to start? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Kevin and I always agreed that this one was never our storm lol (though I did get flamed for a rain forecast last weekend from him) I just hope northern New England can keep snow for a while to keep ski conditions good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 One thing that's clear is how damaging the PNA has been. I guess of course it's tied to the NAO as well but it's brutal. It's weird in a way as we are really tending to extremes especially in winters now. Shame. I am not as negative on next week as a lot of you. I think we should wait to see how it plays out but I guess also I'm no longer talking about MBY....I rate anything that dumps on ski country from CVT to Loon to SR as a positive. Keep in mind ... much of my tone is in the spirit of commiseration - which can be fun with sardonics and crap. I haven't analyzed anything for next week. I did just review the teleconnectors though; the PNA's suggestive rise is a little more obvious, but still not huge... But at CPC, most members now recover to at or just below neutral, as opposed to -2SD such that it has been. CDC more or less concurs. The NAO is smartly rising, but ...then start declining late, and the AO is falling as of last night, despite the GFS members heavily clustered on a rise to perhaps +2.5SD before mop ending... Basically, tough to glean any clear signal out of all that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Classic!! So if you were skiing tomorrow and wanted to be in the western Berks for the early part of the storm where would you want to be and how early is it going to start? Don't take it to heart... as I just mentioned to Messenger, commiseration requires dark sarcasm. In fact, ALB looks like they may get close to a foot out of this.... In fact, taking a look at the FRH data: BOS flashes over to an isothermal snow profile during the last 1/3 to 1/4 of the event; there is still moderate QPF on-going at those times, too. So being a little more objective, I am not totally sold that it won't snow/ice out along RT 2... west of 495 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Pete and Hunchie get 4-6 front end dump before the deluge. Between 2 and 6 inches of water tied upon the pack. Cold 1.5 rain for all of SNE with dews near 40 , quick intense hitter. Results should be a rapid increase in rivers that are at or above their median flows. Unlike most springs SNE rivers are chocked with ice. Ice jamming could become an issue if not with this storm then the intense cutter next week. I would expect some pretty good urban flooding in areas with deep snow, snow melt should be on the order of 50-65% due to the lower dews and lower temps. If there is a higher dew point assimilation then melting would become greater. Next weeks warmer intense cover will probably result in a fully ripened pack releasing in spring floods. JMHO, again ICE jams are the wildcards. http://waterdata.usgs.gov/ct/nwis/current/?type=flow agree steve - was actually going to start a thread with the following text but will just put it in here instead now that i've seen this post from you (though maybe we need a spring flood thread??) well not that this is going to make anyone very pleased...but it might be time to start thinking about flooding potential over the next week to 10 days (and/or beyond?). this certainly isn't to say it isn't going to snow again...or winter cancel...or grab the ipod, turn on your sarah mclachlan and head for the garage...or any of that stuff...i'm just pointing out a potential hazard. a quick look at the most recent snow water equivalent estimates suggests 1 to 8" of water is locked in the snowpack across SNE - with a large area estimated between 4 and 6"...highest amounts in parts of GC. just a quick and dirty approach: given january 1st through the first few days of february had basically 6" of LE at ORH with just about all of of that falling as snow and ice...these satellite estimates are likely accurate for the most part. anyhow, sometimes we "luck out" and get a slow melt down/sublimation...that sort of 10 to 15 day dry stretch with daytime highs in the middle 40s and nightime lows in the 20s. i'm not so sure that will unfold this go around...or at least soon enough to spare us some problems. the next few weeks should be pretty active stormwise, starting with this friday's event. thankfully, for now the pattern is rather progressive so most of the rain events should be relatively short-lived, hopefully helping things out. but if we get a bunch of 1 to 2" rainstorms and then get a slow mover/cut-off type deal that's a different story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Don't take it to heart... as I just mentioned to Messenger, commiseration requires dark sarcasm. In fact, ALB looks like they may get close to a foot out of this.... In fact, taking a look at the FRH data: BOS flashes over to an isothermal snow profile during the last 1/3 to 1/4 of the event; there is still moderate QPF on-going at those times, too. So being a little more objective, I am not totally sold that it won't snow/ice out along RT 2... west of 495 NAM has pretty consistently had that change over at the end of the event which we know can be taken away pretty quickly. But it would be nice to wash away all the salt and junk everywhere and freshen up with a quick inch or two or 3.5 inch for ray so jerry can back his way into winning the bet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Here's an example: BOS 54078999767 10405 952012 52050503 60043978814 -3006 943520 41009900 Obviously there are for discreter methods, but these numerical fields show: Heavy QPF (far left) into a rainy column (bold right) at +5C at T1 and T3...+3C at T5... Then, moderate QPF with 0C, -1C, and 0c at those same respective levels. We'll see... If anything, it shows that if the low somehow were to track SE more, colder profiles would return for the interior really quickly. Also, this is dynamical season - keep that in mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 in order to keep the ideas separate i just did this instead: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Yep, smacks the snow lovers in the face in an incidious way ... The Euro goes SE, the GFS comes slightly NW, and it still rain for everyone in SNE. waah waah waaaaaah.... Next storm after that, rain... So, rain --> cold --> rain --> cold... Fun lovin' ending to the winter... Better for me because I can get some disk golf in with this pack you can walk on. Anyway, PNA is rising so March could get interesting ...that is, if you are futility stubborn about turning your interest away from winter. Hmmm, I never considered winter disc golf. Crampons and open fingertip gloves would do it. Couple of nice courses out this way... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 agree steve - was actually going to start a thread with the following text but will just put it in here instead now that i've seen this post from you (though maybe we need a spring flood thread??) well not that this is going to make anyone very pleased...but it might be time to start thinking about flooding potential over the next week to 10 days (and/or beyond?). this certainly isn't to say it isn't going to snow again...or winter cancel...or grab the ipod, turn on your sarah mclachlan and head for the garage...or any of that stuff...i'm just pointing out a potential hazard. a quick look at the most recent snow water equivalent estimates suggests 1 to 8" of water is locked in the snowpack across SNE - with a large area estimated between 4 and 6"...highest amounts in parts of GC. just a quick and dirty approach: given january 1st through the first few days of february had basically 6" of LE at ORH with just about all of of that falling as snow and ice...these satellite estimates are likely accurate for the most part. anyhow, sometimes we "luck out" and get a slow melt down/sublimation...that sort of 10 to 15 day dry stretch with daytime highs in the middle 40s and nightime lows in the 20s. i'm not so sure that will unfold this go around...or at least soon enough to spare us some problems. the next few weeks should be pretty active stormwise, starting with this friday's event. thankfully, for now the pattern is rather progressive so most of the rain events should be relatively short-lived, hopefully helping things out. but if we get a bunch of 1 to 2" rainstorms and then get a slow mover/cut-off type deal that's a different story. some figures I found... [font=monospace] | Sub | Date | Min E | Max E | Description | Mean | StDev | Min | Max | Volume | Volume(2) |[/font][font=Arial, Helvetica,] BCNM3CT | TTL | 110222.15 | 406 | 1253 | Quabbin Rsvr at Belchertown | 4.35 | 0.97 | 0.85 | 6.42 | 33810 | 11.02 | DNSM3MER | TTL | 110222.15 | 196 | 1755 | Nashua River at East Pepperell | 4.38 | 1.08 | 0.83 | 7.34 | 70320 | 22.91 | DOVM3SNE | TTL | 110222.15 | 121 | 492 | Charles River at Dover | 3.95 | 0.98 | 1.15 | 7.23 | 39250 | 12.79 | EROM3CT | TTL | 110222.15 | 511 | 1614 | Millers River at Erving | 5.06 | 0.68 | 2.56 | 6.89 | 49490 | 16.13 | FBGM3MER | TTL | 110222.15 | 449 | 1558 | North Nashua River at Fitchburg | 3.54 | 0.83 | 1.56 | 5.33 | 12320 | 4.01 | HDLN3CT | TTL | 110222.15 | 324 | 1246 | Ashuelot River at Hinsdale | 4.78 | 0.72 | 2.26 | 6.53 | 27050 | 8.82 | INDM3CT | TTL | 110222.15 | 196 | 1364 | Chicopee R at Indian Orchard - SAC | 4.46 | 1.11 | 1.05 | 7.47 | 83810 | 27.31 | LOWM3MER | TTL | 110222.15 | 65 | 974 | Merrimack River at Lowell | 4.27 | 0.83 | 1.40 | 7.12 | 122200 | 39.83 | MAYM3MER | TTL | 110222.15 | 196 | 656 | Assabet River at Maynard | 4.22 | 1.01 | 1.54 | 7.28 | 25310 | 8.25 | NBRM3SNE | TTL | 110222.15 | 295 | 1269 | Blackstone River at Northbridge | 4.19 | 1.16 | 0.99 | 8.23 | 31460 | 10.25 | RYLM3CT | TTL | 110222.15 | 879 | 1574 | Millers River at South Royalston | 4.18 | 1.02 | 1.43 | 6.70 | 41130 | 13.40 | SAXM3MER | TTL | 110222.15 | 144 | 567 | Sudbury River at Saxonville | 3.83 | 0.96 | 1.54 | 6.00 | 20530 | 6.69 | SOHN3MER | TTL | 110222.15 | 183 | 2073 | Souhegan River at Merrimack | 3.56 | 0.78 | 1.56 | 6.16 | 32220 | 10.50 | WBFM3CT | TTL | 110222.15 | 475 | 1118 | Quabog River at West Brimfield | 4.49 | 0.95 | 1.23 | 6.42 | 35630 | 11.61 | WGTM3MER | TTL | 110222.15 | 262 | 1351 | Squannacook River at West Groton | 4.02 | 0.80 | 2.12 | 6.19 | 14050 | 4.58 | [/font] [font=monospace] WOOR1SNE | TTL | 110222.15 | 154 | 833 | Blackstone River at Woonsocket | 4.48 | 1.12 | 1.31 | 7.07 | 63250 | 20.61 |[/font] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 This thread should focus only on the impending heavy heavy snow threats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 It's tough to ice in the day after Feb 20th ...or thereabouts. The solar contribution will make accreting difficult even as low as 31.5 - I have seen light zr stop accreting at that temperature in March before, and the ice on car windows starts to crack. At night - sure, different story. This system would have probably been a nice warning ice storm for a large area if this were a month ago. Given to the consensus storm track beginning to emerge S of the Pike. That will instantiated a llv ageostrophic response either way - the question is, is that flow pulling down 30F DP, or 3 days of intense solar processed rotten polar air at 33F to absolutely maximize the misery of it all ... Jokes on me! I've been bitching and whining all week about wanting winter to end, hoping that this wouldn't snow - now, this is how the devil works. Ha ha. This way NO ONE gets to be happy. Great. I'm happy too! Rain equals snow melt.. which equals earlier golf.. hopefully these next two storms provide rain an everything melts.. I don't care if the course floods in late Feb early March due to snow melt cause you can't play anyways.. Epic winter cancel! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 This thread should focus only on the impending heavy heavy snow threats. But if that happened there would be nary a post in this thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Another beautiful Winter's day in progress. Nice cold start now sun and wind. Totally psyched to be heading into the volatile part of Winter. Risk/reward. It'll be icing on the cake to rack up some more snow over the next two months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 How about the potential for 3-5'' of backend snow? Models seem to hang back some decent QPF as temps crash. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJHUB Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 I think I should invest in a row boat inches of rain coupled with snow melt up stream. Another flood for RI I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 I'm happy too! Rain equals snow melt.. which equals earlier golf.. hopefully these next two storms provide rain an everything melts.. I don't care if the course floods in late Feb early March due to snow melt cause you can't play anyways.. Rain plus snowpack melt plus freeze thaw cycles = mud Golf comes in late April or early May if things work out well where you are. Last year was one of the earliest golf openings at the public course near me. Maybe the earliest ever (75+ years) and that was May 1st I think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 This thread should focus only on the impending heavy heavy snow threats. ...crickets... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Why is noone talking about the Sunday snow event? all guidance has it..yet all anyone cares about is talking about flooding ...that won't directly effect most people that post on here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 23, 2011 Author Share Posted February 23, 2011 How about the potential for 3-5'' of backend snow? Models seem to hang back some decent QPF as temps crash. The NAM hangs around a s/w and weak deformation area. GFS also had a weaker version of that. Might be something to watch for some, esp Pete and MPM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Why is noone talking about the Sunday snow event? all guidance has it..yet all anyone cares about is talking about flooding ...that won't directly effect most people that post on here Because it's 126 hours out and probably a 3-5'' storm at best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Because it's 126 hours out and probably a 3-5'' storm at best. Right..but it sure beats whining about rain, and flooding when most folks live nowhere near rivers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Right..but it sure beats whining about rain, and flooding when most folks live nowhere near rivers Talk it up Kev. Tell us what you see. I have not really looked at it much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Right..but it sure beats whining about rain, and flooding when most folks live nowhere near rivers This back-end potential has me a little curious. I love when rain changes over to snow and then it rips. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmanmitch Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 12Z NAM implies a late winter puke 34, 35 degree rain event for the majority of the event here in the Berkshires and GC. Snowpack should absorb most of the water at these temperatures, though. 1/2 degree latitude north of PSF gets a blue snow bomb on the NAM soundings, so we are walking a very fine line here - particularly for areas along and above route 2. Probably a little light 1 to maybe 2 inch snow with the WAA ahead of the main event, and then a good slug of rain before ending as a 1 to 3, maybe 2 to 4 inch snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Talk it up Kev. Tell us what you see. I have not really looked at it much. It looks like an advisory snowfall..2-4 or maybe 3-5.. Nothing major but considering many of us can reach 100 inches for the year with over a month and half left of legit snow chnces..it's something to talk about. Instead people are complaining about rain..saying that Feb hasn't been wintry when in fact it's above normal for snowfall, and below normal for temps.. It's not like we have no snow events to track. A cold 35 degree rain on Friday isn't going to cause much melting or flooding..with a rapid re-freeze Fri nite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mica Vim Toot Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 I think you can do better.... Heh! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 23, 2011 Author Share Posted February 23, 2011 It looks like an advisory snowfall..2-4 or maybe 3-5.. Nothing major but considering many of us can reach 100 inches for the year with over a month and half left of legit snow chnces..it's something to talk about. Instead people are complaining about rain..saying that Feb hasn't been wintry when in fact it's above normal for snowfall, and below normal for temps.. It's not like we have no snow events to track. A cold 35 deree rain on Friday isn't going to cause much melting or flooding..with a rapid re-freeze Fri nite Because people have been spoiled that it came to a grinding halt after Feb 2. Yeah you had that 4" snow, but overall we hit the brakes. The other things is that we could have 2-4" of rain in the next week, so I don't see the harm in talking about the consequences in that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Because people have been spoiled that it came to a grinding halt after Feb 2. Yeah you had that 4" snow, but overall we hit the brakes. The other things is that we could have 2-4" of rain in the next week, so I don't see the harm in talking about the consequences in that. We had all the early Feb snow and ice..and then we all had 2-4 the other day. 2-4 inches of rain over a week with much of it being a cold rain isn't going to cause any major issues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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