Mr Torchey Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 It was a great run. It was an epic winter (down here), but the GFS has caved, Sunday is pathetic and next week brings warmth and tremendous amounts of rain, and thats ok, I have been blessed with a fantastic winter and tons of memories with the wife and kids enjoying it. Looks like a shot at some winter like weather middle of March, but by that time climo favors north of here, and all good things come to an end, I am going to enjoy the snowpack the next couple days it will be gone until next year by early next week. viva la winter 10-11 :snowman: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Man the wind got punched right out of this thread and regional forum this morning... except for some of the NNE crowd you'd definitely think this winter was over. Where's MRG_pete when you need some winter cheerleading? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 It was a great run. It was an epic winter (down here), but the GFS has caved, Sunday is pathetic and next week brings warmth and tremendous amounts of rain, and thats ok, I have been blessed with a fantastic winter and tons of memories with the wife and kids enjoying it. Looks like a shot at some winter like weather middle of March, but by that time climo favors north of here, and all good things come to an end, I am going to enjoy the snowpack the next couple days it will be gone until next year by early next week. viva la winter 10-11 :snowman: Well said-I'd say we are largely done here...hoping for a fluke dump at some point, but by the time the pattern becomes favorable, we're getting into tough territory...heck of a winter and even more amazing that most of it fell within a 30 day period. - Flood watches issued later today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Man the wind got punched right out of this thread and regional forum this morning... except for some of the NNE crowd you'd definitely think this winter was over. Where's MRG_pete when you need some winter cheerleading? ski country and even into the berks is going to get crushed with snow the next month, its your turn enjoy!!~ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 09z SREFs have a sub-992 mb centered near Boston at 60 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 9z SREFS look a little north of the previous couple runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Two men enter One man leaves In this week's installment of Bloodsport, the confused Goofus got its clock cleaned by the return of the steady Dr. No Still looking to see some accum before and/or after it is liquid up this way, but expecting nothing... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Taking a close look at guidance this morning, I think its time to start seriously taking a look at flooding over the area, thats a boat load of rain for much of the area over the next 3-10 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Two men enter One man leaves In this week's installment of Bloodsport, the confused Goofus got its clock cleaned by the return of the steady Dr. No Still looking to see some accum before and/or after it is liquid up this way, but expecting nothing... Two be fair, look at that SREF placement with the low going just north of NYC to BOS.... that's in the middle of the GFS/EURO solutions the past few days. UKMET and ECMWF really wanted to drill this up the St Lawrence Valley... that's not very close to happening. Just like a GFS benchmark track is not very close to happening. It does look like a pretty even compromise between the two camps of models. I actually think the GGEM had some of the better runs with this system, as it was consistently between the GFS and ECM with the exception of one or two runs 24 hours ago that got in bed with the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Two be fair, look at that SREF placement with the low going just north of NYC to BOS.... that's in the middle of the GFS/EURO solutions the past few days. UKMET and ECMWF really wanted to drill this up the St Lawrence Valley... that's not very close to happening. Just like a GFS benchmark track is not very close to happening. It does look like a pretty even compromise between the two camps of models. I actually think the GGEM had some of the better runs with this system, as it was consistently between the GFS and ECM with the exception of one or two runs 24 hours ago that got in bed with the GFS. You and I touched on that yesterday, That GGEM track looks like a good track for up here it will end up being the compromise between both camps it seems.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Taunton and Albany still have even the lower elevations out this way as a wintery mix so we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Two be fair, look at that SREF placement with the low going just north of NYC to BOS.... that's in the middle of the GFS/EURO solutions the past few days. UKMET and ECMWF really wanted to drill this up the St Lawrence Valley... that's not very close to happening. Just like a GFS benchmark track is not very close to happening. It does look like a pretty even compromise between the two camps of models. I actually think the GGEM had some of the better runs with this system, as it was consistently between the GFS and ECM with the exception of one or two runs 24 hours ago that got in bed with the GFS. Good points Someone (Kev?) was pointing out the GGEM yesterday as a possible solution... It perplexes me that both of these were pretty steadfast for a while...the GFS was even going SE a bit yesterday morning... I would have thought they could determine things a bit sooner. Of course we are still on Wednesday and weird stuff does happen inside of this timing Correction - you and Dryslot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 March 10 30-50" once in 600 yr blow job Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Taking a close look at guidance this morning, I think its time to start seriously taking a look at flooding over the area, thats a boat load of rain for much of the area over the next 3-10 days. Ct looks to get a cold rain from the first event followed by freezing temps. Not good. There will be that much more moisture locked in that snow pack / sponge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Who would have thought back in November, when most were talking of a mild Jan due to a moderate to strong nina, that Jan in fact would be the epic month of winter, just goes to show how fragile long range forecasting is, mother nature is a fickle woman. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Look at how far north the 540 line is on the sref...wow. Is that the rain snow line in this setup? I hope not... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 oh man, I hope it's just at least gonna be warm enough out saturday to make the snow on the ski areas slushy and not solid ice. We're gonna be flying through the air at mach 1, ice would kill someone. maybe this will work? I think I would be in the hospital if this was on ice... http://www.facebook.com/video/video.php?v=1733650776092 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mica Vim Toot Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Who would have thought back in November, when most were talking of a mild Jan due to a moderate to strong nina, that Jan in fact would be the epic month of winter, just goes to show how fragile long range forecasting is, mother nature is a fickle woman. For all the noise the long range forecasters make the empirical evidence continues to add up: Long range forecasting is pointless. Vim Toot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Look at how far north the 540 line is on the sref...wow. Is that the rain snow line in this setup? I hope not... Ski area operators would be running for the bridges. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Ct looks to get a cold rain from the first event followed by freezing temps. Not good. There will be that much more moisture locked in that snow pack / sponge. Around here it seems the "snow" is pretty solid. Not sure how much rain it can really absorb (some to be sure), which leads me to think it might be heading to my basement? At least my roof and gutters are 60% clear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Thats a lot of rain on the nam for friday:( I hope it stays snow for ski country. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Two be fair, look at that SREF placement with the low going just north of NYC to BOS.... that's in the middle of the GFS/EURO solutions the past few days. UKMET and ECMWF really wanted to drill this up the St Lawrence Valley... that's not very close to happening. Just like a GFS benchmark track is not very close to happening. It does look like a pretty even compromise between the two camps of models. I actually think the GGEM had some of the better runs with this system, as it was consistently between the GFS and ECM with the exception of one or two runs 24 hours ago that got in bed with the GFS. Cmc has been solid. And I agree looks like the Uk euro were too far nw by about the same amount most gfs runs were se Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 12z looked to be a great run for ski country! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 I sit on the fence for some taint here on the 12z Nam, The 0c line never gets north of me before crashing back SE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 12z looked to be a great run for ski country! It is, They should do well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Yep, smacks the snow lovers in the face in an incidious way ... The Euro goes SE, the GFS comes slightly NW, and it still rain for everyone in SNE. waah waah waaaaaah.... Next storm after that, rain... So, rain --> cold --> rain --> cold... Fun lovin' ending to the winter... Better for me because I can get some disk golf in with this pack you can walk on. Anyway, PNA is rising so March could get interesting ...that is, if you are futility stubborn about turning your interest away from winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Heavy heavy icing event NH? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 March 10 30-50" once in 600 yr blow job I think you can do better.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Pete and Hunchie get 4-6 front end dump before the deluge. Between 2 and 6 inches of water tied in the pack. Cold 1.5 rain for all of SNE with dews near 40 , quick intense hitter. Results should be a rapid increase in rivers that are at or above their median flows. Unlike most springs SNE rivers are chocked with ice. Ice jamming could become an issue if not with this storm then the intense cutter next week. I would expect some pretty good urban flooding in areas with deep snow, snow melt should be on the order of 50-65% due to the lower dews and lower temps. If there is a higher dew point assimilation then melting would become greater. Next weeks warmer intense cutter will probably result in a fully ripened pack releasing in spring floods. JMHO, again ICE jams are the wildcards. http://waterdata.usgs.gov/ct/nwis/current/?type=flow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Heavy heavy icing event NH? It's tough to ice in the day after Feb 20th ...or thereabouts. The solar contribution will make accreting difficult even as low as 31.5 - I have seen light zr stop accreting at that temperature in March before, and the ice on car windows starts to crack. At night - sure, different story. This system would have probably been a nice warning ice storm for a large area if this were a month ago. Given to the consensus storm track beginning to emerge S of the Pike. That will instantiated a llv ageostrophic response either way - the question is, is that flow pulling down 30F DP, or 3 days of intense solar processed rotten polar air at 33F to absolutely maximize the misery of it all ... Jokes on me! I've been bitching and whining all week about wanting winter to end, hoping that this wouldn't snow - now, this is how the devil works. Ha ha. This way NO ONE gets to be happy. Great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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