40/70 Benchmark Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 EURO is over PIT at hr 60. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Cold rain....ice potential for the interior...esp higher terrain. Oh, you're in Bridgeton....hold up... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Euro has more front end snow despite still being quite amplified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Not much change this run I guess.... EURO is over PIT at hr 60. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Oh, you're in Bridgeton....hold up... Haha.. had me ****tin my pants for a bit there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Jay, mod snowstorm for you on the CMC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Euro still tracks it over ALB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 EURO goes from GC to Portland, ME.. This is not tracking over GC; ERUO still too amped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 It' an open type s/w in a southwest flow ...I agree it won't go over ALB...coastal Plain of SE sure...but not interior NY State.... Now if the whole enchilada comes out next week sure it may head for Montreal.... EURO goes from GC to Portland, ME.. This is not tracking over GC; ERUO still too amped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Euro still tracks it over ALB. BS I often hear folks play the "no high over Canada, what will force a triple point" card......my response to this is that their perspective is backwards. Orographics render the default setting of climo to a cp track, thus you must look for what will force this to track bodily across the spine of NE, not vice versa.....and I don't view this trough as sharply neg enough to truck this thing over Mt. Pete. That just doesn't happen unless you have a violently negative trough far enough west to grab the low by the hair and force it to do so, otherwise this will find a way to spill onto the cp. Track over se MA is my call....minor front end snows and a minor-mod ice threat for the elevated interior. The 'ole "no high, no blocking" cry rationalizes a hugger over a BM track, sure, but that isn't going to cut it to Ski MRG in and of itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 BS I often hear folks play the "no high over Canada, what will force a triple point" card......my response to this is that their perspective is backwards. Orographics render the default setting of climo to a cp track, thus you must look for what will force this to track bodily across the spine of NE, not vice versa.....and I don't view this trough as sharply neg enough to truck this thing over Mt. Pete. That just doesn't happen unless you have a violently negative trough far enough west to grab the low by the hair and force it to do so, otherwise this will find away to spillonto the cp. Track over se MA is my call....minor front end snows and a minor-mod ice threat for the elevated interior. lol, were you implying I thought it was correct? I think I have been saying a SE MA track is probably most likely for 2 days, so I agree with that idea. If vortmax is strong enough then it will track over ALB...but it doesn't look strong enough to me in this setup. Regardless it makes no difference to most of SNE...only the elevated "ice climo" areas north of the pike or rt 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 lol, were you implying I thought it was correct? I think I have been saying a SE MA track is probably most likely for 2 days, so I agree with that idea. If vortmax is strong enough then it will track over ALB...but it doesn't look strong enough to me in this setup. Regardless it makes no difference to most of SNE...only the elevated "ice climo" areas north of the pike or rt 2. No, no....the "BS" was directed to you, not at you. I agree with you 100%...this isn't a monster capable of cutting over Logan11's grey mane; it's a progressive, mildly negative system. Only significant ice potential for the relatively rural, elevated areas to the n and w. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Jay, I'd feel good if I were you; all systems go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Looks like the Sunday event is still there but not overly impressive. Then it sets up a huge torching cutter for the last day of February into first day of March. That system is not looking good the closer we get, but our best chances have always looked like about Mar 5-15th if we are going to get on a roll next month for one final push. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Looks like the Sunday event is still there but not overly impressive. Then it sets up a huge torching cutter for the last day of February into first day of March. That system is not looking good the closer we get, but our best chances have always looked like about Mar 5-15th if we are going to get on a roll next month for one final push. Glad I already spiked the football in the bet zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Looks like the Sunday event is still there but not overly impressive. Then it sets up a huge torching cutter for the last day of February into first day of March. That system is not looking good the closer we get, but our best chances have always looked like about Mar 5-15th if we are going to get on a roll next month for one final push. 0z GFS had the Monday event at 976mb over Gaylord, MI...OUCH. Talk about a snowpack devestator after the first cutter; your backyard may be bare before you know it with a couple sunny days and then two cutters in a row. I mean what a turnaround in the pattern... Does the cutter finally get the NAO negative for our last push? The GFS looked as if wanted to stall the bombing cutter over Quebec and force higher heights into Greenland with cold air coming down into the Northeast. Maybe we get a good stretch like 3/3-3/20? The end is definitely in sight though if we don't get the blocking back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 It may take until the end of the 1st week of March, but we will get a good deal more of snow, whether the blocking returns or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Euro has a pretty epic EPO block throughout most of this run after D4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Euro has a pretty epic EPO block throughout most of this run after D4. Lot of good it does us with respect to the March 1 event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Looks like the Sunday event is still there but not overly impressive. Then it sets up a huge torching cutter for the last day of February into first day of March. That system is not looking good the closer we get, but our best chances have always looked like about Mar 5-15th if we are going to get on a roll next month for one final push. what a terrible continuation of what has been a terrible winter, and 2.5 years here. 13 straight runs of the euro showing me >8 inches of snow while the GFS showed nothing, only to see the euro start its backtracking at 12z for up here. how did i know where this was going to end up lol. and Powderfreak asked me why i never get excited. then another torching cutter. lol. this winter cant end soon enough, or i cant move to a warmer clime fast enough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Theres always late March/early April. ...but I go to FL on the 28th so I'll be pissed if I miss a Spring event. 0z GFS had the Monday event at 976mb over Gaylord, MI...OUCH. Talk about a snowpack devestator after the first cutter; your backyard may be bare before you know it with a couple sunny days and then two cutters in a row. I mean what a turnaround in the pattern... Does the cutter finally get the NAO negative for our last push? The GFS looked as if wanted to stall the bombing cutter over Quebec and force higher heights into Greenland with cold air coming down into the Northeast. Maybe we get a good stretch like 3/3-3/20? The end is definitely in sight though if we don't get the blocking back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 what a terrible continuation of what has been a terrible winter, and 2.5 years here. 13 straight runs of the euro showing me >8 inches of snow while the GFS showed nothing, only to see the euro start its backtracking at 12z for up here. how did i know where this was going to end up lol. and Powderfreak asked me why i never get excited. then another torching cutter. lol. this winter cant end soon enough, or i cant move to a warmer clime fast enough You had to know that you'd pay for 2008 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Like I said Tuesday morning... Andy FTW with this system.... Though I still 'hope' to do ok here..... what a terrible continuation of what has been a terrible winter, and 2.5 years here. 13 straight runs of the euro showing me >8 inches of snow while the GFS showed nothing, only to see the euro start its backtracking at 12z for up here. how did i know where this was going to end up lol. and Powderfreak asked me why i never get excited. then another torching cutter. lol. this winter cant end soon enough, or i cant move to a warmer clime fast enough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 You had to know that you'd pay for 2008 lol i knew you were going to pull that card true enough. the one thing ive learned is to strongly advise caution to those who wish for more snow than they can possibly dream of in one year.......... its simply not worth it for one year. heavy heavy caution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 That day 6 event, at least as modeled now, has more of a cutter appeal than the current one does.....if that H5 chart is close, then I could see that one making a run for Albany, but not the day 3 deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 That day 6 event, at least as modeled now, has more of a cutter appeal than the current one does.....if that H5 chart is close, then I could see that one making a run for Albany, but not the day 3 deal. Torch...+16C in NC: Looks like it whacks the NAO negative but not for long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Canadian has about 6 hours of front-end snow Fri morning into early afternoon for western/central Mass, and also a change back to snow in the same areas at the very end of the storm. http://collaboration...pe_gem_reg.html It has warning criteria snow accumulations for ALB area, and much of VT, northern and central NH and interior ME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 23, 2011 Author Share Posted February 23, 2011 A meh set of models last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 23, 2011 Author Share Posted February 23, 2011 SNE better get the arcs ready over the next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 6z GFS goes north. AWT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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