Mr Torchey Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Nice little snow bomb on goofus. USA USA USA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Yeah, I didn't question Will because I possess no skills but I'm seeing it a bit north as well. Yeah, We went from a total whiff to just a whiff.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 So far my reverse psychology has worked with 12 and 18z.. lol, With the best piece of junk model we have Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Well Will is right that it's technically coming in south compared to other guidance again. I suppose we'll see at 00z if this 18z run was the beginning of the NW trend. Yeah, looks like it hit its furthest south point at 12z.... now starting to come back up. With the 18z NAM well north and 18z GFS a touch north, definitely getting closer to a middle ground track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 lol, With the best piece of junk model we have funny things is i wouldn't have confidence in the euro this year if role's were reversed. this may no make sense but it seems like the little clipper like system that moves E then NE thru SE canada and then has NW winds around the back side present to the North of OUR LOW (as our low approaches us) almost acts like a -NAO in the sense that it acts to push our low a bit more south seems like that little clipper is a player in the track and our hopes to keep this south?, no and maybe even aid in draining some cooler /dryer air south? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Yeah, We went from a total whiff to just a whiff.... Heavy coating Friday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 yeah it has all the makings of a very active/wet stretch where places in VT/NH/ME just get crushed...wouldn't take it to the bank yet but i'd like to be spending sometime in the white mountains. LOL. hopefully we can cash in on a couple/few as well. we are definitely walking the line in SNE, we just need to get on the right (actually the left) side of it a few times. storm next week (tue) is almost a carbon copy of friday's storm on the euro. 2007-08. I should do ok, maybe make a run at Kev, but it will be tought to catch him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Welp, one thing is for certain there will be a defined loser and winner in this. Either the ECM/Ukmet and HPC will look really really good, or really really bad - and there won't be much room for excuse in the matter. Either the GFS/GGEM will look really really good, or reall really bad - and there won't be much room for excuse in the matter. That's just it. You can't lump the GGEM in with the POS GFS... GGEM had a couple of southern runs (yesterday 12z and last night 00z), but today's 12z came a decent bit north and looks almost identical to the 18z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 If this song can't get you amped up for the 18z GFS..I don't know what can...Listen to this while driving...just kickazz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 The outcome of this as far as p type over the majority of sne has never been in question; who cares what the GFS is doing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 funny things is i wouldn't have confidence in the euro this year if role's were reversed. this may no make sense but it seems like the little clipper like system that moves E then NE thru SE canada and then has NW winds around the back side present to the North of OUR LOW (as our low approaches us) almost acts like a -NAO in the sense that it acts to push our low a bit more south seems like that little clipper is a player in the track and our hopes to keep this south?, no Not really i don't think, Its not strong enough to supress the low coming out of the lower ohio valley SE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Did anyone post where the Euro Ensembles were at 12z? Or did i miss it, Thinking they may be like the op was Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 If this song can't get you amped up for the 18z GFS..I don't know what can...Listen to this while driving...just kickazz Actually the 18z GFS tends to make me think of an old Ugly Kid Joe song. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Did anyone post where the Euro Ensembles were at 12z? Or did i miss it, Thinking they may be like the op was Similar to the op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Did anyone post where the Euro Ensembles were at 12z? Or did i miss it, Thinking they may be like the op was They almost look more west than the OP... which is scary to have the ECMWF ensembles and UKMET so far west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 They almost look more west than the OP... which is scary to have the ECMWF ensembles and UKMET so far west. Yes it is, I thinks we will see the Euro start making a move over the next couple of runs, Hoping its SE...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Actually the 18z GFS tends to make me think of an old Ugly Kid Joe song. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Similar to the op. Thanks Brian Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Yes it is, I thinks we will see the Euro start making amove over the next couple of runs, Hoping its SE...lol I really like the 12z GGEM and 18z NAM as a compromise right now... no way this thing ends up as far SE as the GFS, as that would be an absolute failure of the UKMET, EURO, EURO ensembles, GGEM, GGEM ensembles, and NAM. No way all those are wrong in favor of the operational GFS, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 18z gfs didnt move much kev. I just have a hard time buying any solution supported by the nogaps and Uk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Some historical importance with regards to the 18z gfs, could perhaps make this winter the snowiest all time in nyc, and very close at bdr. Not an opinion on the outcome, just for historical reference. I still believe this goes up the canal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 They almost look more west than the OP... which is scary to have the ECMWF ensembles and UKMET so far west. 78hr is a little cooler than the op. Some of the 72hr EC members may not be saturated yet around the 0C 850 contour so it may give a little illusion that it's warmer than the op at that point. The differences are pretty much trivial. There's a juicy 0.50"+ from 72-78hr on the ensemble mean though over much of SNE/S NH/SW ME so there must be some decent confidence for a period of heavy precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 I really like the 12z GGEM and 18z NAM as a compromise right now... no way this thing ends up as far SE as the GFS, as that would be an absolute failure of the UKMET, EURO, EURO ensembles, GGEM, GGEM ensembles, and NAM. No way all those are wrong in favor of the operational GFS, lol. 12z GGEM was a nice hit up here for us, I still think it lies in the middle of the west and east outliers as well....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 on to the 00z!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 I really like the 12z GGEM and 18z NAM as a compromise right now... no way this thing ends up as far SE as the GFS, as that would be an absolute failure of the UKMET, EURO, EURO ensembles, GGEM, GGEM ensembles, and NAM. No way all those are wrong in favor of the operational GFS, lol. Of course you do..they give you the most snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 18z gfs didnt move much kev. I just have a hard time buying any solution supported by the nogaps and Uk. You have an easier time believing the GFS than all the international models and now NAM? As of 18z, the GFS is on its own, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 12z GGEM was a nice hit up here for us, I still think it lies in the middle of the west and east outliers as well....... Total disaster early next week. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Of course you do..they give you the most snow Haha this is true but I seriously think the 12z GGEM is the way to go... best snow is south of me, north of you. I'm thinking Killington/central Greens through the Whites and back to the ALB area is where the best snow falls. I thought you were on-board for that solution, too? Or has the GFS peeked your interest? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 You have an easier time believing the GFS than all the international models and now NAM? As of 18z, the GFS is on its own, lol. The Uk has been too far nw in this pattern. A week ago ncep pointed that out and tossed it. I don't really know but im not really that interested/concerned until at least the 0z and probably the 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 I really like the 12z GGEM and 18z NAM as a compromise right now... no way this thing ends up as far SE as the GFS, as that would be an absolute failure of the UKMET, EURO, EURO ensembles, GGEM, GGEM ensembles, and NAM. No way all those are wrong in favor of the operational GFS, lol. I totally agree with you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.