Organizing Low Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 that energy is diving well south into mexico, no way any of these models will have a good handle for a bit i imagine. great post by Tip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 21, 2011 Author Share Posted February 21, 2011 Anyone in the Met community look at the actual Nina state today? Keep seeing words about Nina typical etc, hmmmm Seems like it's peaked, but still there imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Lundberg says keep the bomber OPP jackets and shovels ready..epic winter continues Just a short post today due to the busy nature of the weather in the heart of the area where a high percentage of my radio stations lie. The main theme I want to bring across today, though, is that last week was clearly an aberration. We're going to back to where we've been much of the winter season, and that's a pattern that is dominated by a lot of arctic air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Oh, the kid's alright though. I like to pull his switches by nipping at his opposing sort of bias - but you know, you need those types to keep things honest. I try to be objective at all times, but hey, lord knows I'm only human in that regard... Anyway, – been meaning to mention about the season to date: So, colder than normal with above normal winter, 2010-2011. And I don't see the last week here of February recovering temperatures (hint as to the week ender event). Who would have thunk with a strengthening La Nina leading. Sure goes to show my argument about these NCEP clowns putting too much stock in the ENSO states… Clearly, such a statistical anomalous result – and I feel not random do to the persistency of it – in the very least suggests there are just as many controlling factors. Namely, the arctic gets a say… Duh. But, I think it is because they don’t feel there is any reliable means to predict the AO, certainly not the NAO with it’s often intra-weekly time-scale variability. Still, to NOT include that as at least a bi-line statement is stupid for even a governmental operation. They really need to take their heads out of their collective arses on this. Scott - no doubt! And, just look at the 12z GGEM now caving into the notion that the northern stream is too strong to allow that Friday job to go west of us. Classic teleconnector fight! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 21, 2011 Author Share Posted February 21, 2011 It's possible we may limp into March before the pattern changes a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Seems like it's peaked, but still there imo. Yea peaking was wondering if it is heading neutral for next winter, great read here issued 2/14 http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Lots of winter to go weenies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Lundberg says keep the bomber OPP jackets and shovels ready..epic winter continues Just a short post today due to the busy nature of the weather in the heart of the area where a high percentage of my radio stations lie. The main theme I want to bring across today, though, is that last week was clearly an aberration. We're going to back to where we've been much of the winter season, and that's a pattern that is dominated by a lot of arctic air. I listened to Joe today on WCBS radio, he sounded hmm not happy LOL. Yea he seems to think March rocks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 21, 2011 Author Share Posted February 21, 2011 I think we are going to be in the battle ground again next week. Storm track looks to be over the east, but there may be a clunker or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 12z GFS has the Mar. 1 storm implied by the euro several days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 I think we are going to be in the battle ground again next week. Storm track looks to be over the east, but there may be a clunker or two. Yeah... that one around March 1st looks like it could go either way. Luckily the Canadian isn't the best model out there because that's a huge rainstorm to end February or start March, lol. Even the GFS looks like it wants to cut west, but somehow holds on and tracks east of most of us thanks to truncation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Time to see the euro trend towards the gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Time to see the euro trend towards the gfs Not happening this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 It actually did trend some but perhaps for now the middle ground is the answer? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 21, 2011 Author Share Posted February 21, 2011 Dr No has spoken. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Anyway, Euro is a rainer for SNE/CNE/NNE Friday. Skiing cancel for me? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 It's possible we may limp into March before the pattern changes a bit. Likely imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Dr No has spoken. Lived up to his name. Let's hope he's having a bad day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Lived up to his name. Let's hope he's having a bad last three days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chim chiminey Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 I think the HPC should apologize to the Euro in today's discussion after lambasting it last week in their discussions for its suppressed solution. I know they must be called anti-american if they don't promote the GFS, but in reality all it's good for is a token "blend" to justify funding and widen the error margin on the 0C isotherm. It is absolutely atrocious in sniffing out perturbations in the northern stream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Not happening this run. Not difficult to perceive what is going to happen....compromise of 75% EURO\25% others. It will matter for C\NNE, but probably just introduce some front end ice to the distant interior of sne...esp. elevated areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 I 'm confused is this a March thread or.... Euro cuts farts on all. big differences as usual with all models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 21, 2011 Author Share Posted February 21, 2011 Lived up to his name. Let's hope he's having a bad day. I could see something that may benefit NNE a little more. It might even trend east a little...but probably all the more to tease us. We'll see. Hopefully it coughs one up, but tough to go against this and the ensembles right now. This has looked crappy for days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 21, 2011 Author Share Posted February 21, 2011 I 'm confused is this a March thread or.... Euro cuts farts on all. big differences as usual with all models. No, we can use it for going forward, including this next one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 No, we can use it for going forward, including this next one. Its past the 25th like your other thread? fook it one super thread works fine for me. Euro gets real cold again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Not difficult to perceive what is going to happen....compromise of 75% EURO\25% others. It will matter for C\NNE, but probably just introduce some front end ice to the distant interior of sne...esp. elevated areas. I could see something that may benefit NNE a little more. It might even trend east a little...but probably all the more to tease us. We'll see. Hopefully it coughs one up, but tough to go against this and the ensembles right now. This has looked crappy for days. I think you and I are one the same page. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 I think the fact that suppression has been introduced and the end result of today's system should at least give pause to the idea that this automatically cuts west. We'll see but pattern recognition suggests that the Euro is the outlier this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 "When aren't you" Not sure what you mean by that, Steve.....Scott was a little more optimistic for a significant event for this past event, originally.....are you implying that I copy this thoughts... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Is it a 50's screaming sou easter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Not sure what you mean by that, Steve.....Scott was a little more optimistic on a significant event for this past event, originally.....are you implying that I copy this thoughts... No dude I deleted that I have 5 windows opened and replied to the wrong one but immediately deleted it. That was for my chat window on FB LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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