chim chiminey Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 There doesn't have to be one. It may just move over se mass too. for the cold rain scenario. does it looks like a brief shot into the 50s for the cp? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Powderfreak FTW its a clean miss here what a kick in the balls that would be considering there is nothing to stop this coming N and W other than the energy being too weak, itself. having said that, im still hedging SE, its not going to track like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 FUGLY! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Powderfreak FTW Always nice to come visit a thread and the first post I see is this, haha. I hadn't even looked at the NAM but now that I have, it looks exactly like the GGEM. All I want is 3-5" of synoptic snow to refresh the mountain for the second weekend of the President's Week holiday. The snow surface is, uh, firm right now and upslope fluff is nice to look at but doesn't help the overall situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Quite a jump NW from 18z then at 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Powderfreak FTW I still hold out hope for some in the interior of our region getting mostly snow. And by that I mean the foothills. I suppose it could mimic the 2/5 disaster though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allenson Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 More lines on there then a mirror full of cocaine LOL, I was just thinking as I looked at that mess that I should just start drinking now, wake up on Friday and look out the window and see just what the hell it's doing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 its a clean miss here what a kick in the balls that would be considering there is nothing to stop this coming N and W other than the energy being too weak, itself. having said that, im still hedging SE, its not going to track like that. We are on the same page, I think we see a track like the SREFS a couple pages ago had.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Good lord..lol. The guy was even holding an umbrella.. Listen to the mandolin rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Quite a jump NW from 18z then at 12z Not terribke for us, however not all white either. Wouldn't want any more northward nudging, though I suspect it may not be done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Quite a jump NW from 18z then at 12z just wait 6 hrs for a completely different solution from this bipolar model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Always nice to come visit a thread and the first post I see is this, haha. I hadn't even looked at the NAM but now that I have, it looks exactly like the GGEM. All I want is 3-5" of synoptic snow to refresh the mountain for the second weekend of the President's Week holiday. The snow surface is, uh, firm right now and upslope fluff is nice to look at but doesn't help the overall situation. firm hard and fast was the name of the game at Gore on Sunday, skied K-Mart on Saturday and it was interesting to say the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 I still hold out hope for some in the interior of our region getting mostly snow. And by that I mean the foothills. I suppose it could mimic the 2/5 disaster though. 50-75 mi SE Its game on for some Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 I still hold out hope for some in the interior of our region getting mostly snow. And by that I mean the foothills. I suppose it could mimic the 2/5 disaster though. I think this ticks SE, I wouldn't be worried. There always seems to be a SE push with these types of systems with a low redeveloping closer to the coast. The problem is, does that SE push only hold the cold air at the surface in, or does it actually cool off the mid levels even to bring the snow line south? My gut has always said this is a storm that fringes us up here, with the ALB/GFL/RUT/LEB crowd making out the best. Verbatim the 18z NAM is a solid snowstorm for the Killington area and central Greens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 firm hard and fast was the name of the game at Gore on Sunday, skied K-Mart on Saturday and it was interesting to say the least. Yeah most of ski country could really use this to freshen up the trails after that thaw/freeze. And not this couple inches of fluff that seems to come every few days, but something with some liquid content in it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 just wait 6 hrs for a completely different solution from this bipolar model 6hrs, I will wait until 12z thurs to see the outcome, Seen this all winter, Why would it change now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Alot of wishcasting on my part but I'm almost praying that this thing comes in super amped and helps set the stage for the event in the 8 day range. That insanely positive tilted trough over the west is screwing everything up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 SREFs look to be centered a couple miles east of South Yarmouth, MA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chim chiminey Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 epic bust on temps today in the cp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 I think this ticks SE, I wouldn't be worried. There always seems to be a SE push with these types of systems with a low redeveloping closer to the coast. The problem is, does that SE push only hold the cold air at the surface in, or does it actually cool off the mid levels even to bring the snow line south? My gut has always said this is a storm that fringes us up here, with the ALB/GFL/RUT/LEB crowd making out the best. Verbatim the 18z NAM is a solid snowstorm for the Killington area and central Greens. Well...yeah. With the H85/H7 circulations tracking over my head I will changeover even with a better sfc track. But at least that may just mean S to IP to ZR instead of a period of plain old R. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 I think this ticks SE, I wouldn't be worried. There always seems to be a SE push with these types of systems with a low redeveloping closer to the coast. The problem is, does that SE push only hold the cold air at the surface in, or does it actually cool off the mid levels even to bring the snow line south? My gut has always said this is a storm that fringes us up here, with the ALB/GFL/RUT/LEB crowd making out the best. Verbatim the 18z NAM is a solid snowstorm for the Killington area and central Greens. Middlebury gets crushed on the 18z NAM. Might be headed up there soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Yawn....unending winter just did a kamikaze into the glacier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Another run and it's just like the Euro.. I hope this will finally get people to stop looking at or using the GFS. What a piece of crap. You don't factor it into any of your forecasts..ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Another run and it's just like the Euro.. I hope this will finally get people to stop looking at or using the GFS. What a piece of crap. You don't factor it into any of your forecasts..ever. You should get a job writing the ncep discussions. That's pretty much what theyve said all winter which has worked great aside of when the euro was just as bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 It sounds like I am in the dreaded 72 hour jackpot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 You should get a job writing the ncep discussions. That's pretty much what theyve said all winter which has worked great aside of when the euro was just as bad. 18z GFS will be about 200 miles NW of 12z..as it finally gets a clue. Just lock in an interior cold rain.,...and move onto the snow on Sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 HPC is riding the EURO/UKMET all the way home... they even have the best/heaviest snow probabilities north of me. Man, looking at this stuff and then looking at the 12z GFS really makes you wonder on a 72 hour forecast. The poster "Organizing Low" even has a chance at 12"+ per HPC's graphics. Icing probabilities.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 18z GFS will be about 200 miles NW of 12z..as it finally gets a clue. Just lock in an interior cold rain.,...and move onto the snow on Sunday I thought 12z was going to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 18z GFS will be about 200 miles NW of 12z..as it finally gets a clue. The GFS likes to tease. It'll come NW about 25-50mi every run to get a new group of posters into the jackpot every 6hrs before it ends up verifying as 6-12" for our friend in S QB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 The Doctor has spoken Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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