CoastalWx Posted February 22, 2011 Author Share Posted February 22, 2011 I have a hypothesis that might offer explanation as to why the the Euro is persisting along this line of drilling the low up W baroclinic axis that way. First of all, said axis is difused some up this way; though not helping, that really isn't what I think is the problem here. The Euro has a southwestern CONUS lowering heights behavior/bias to some degree. This used to be more demonstrative in years past; since upgrades have taken place, there has been some improvement, but overall the bias still lurks and we have seen it play out a couple of times this season. What the hypothesis is: If the ECMWF is exercising that bias here, that means that it is over amplified with the subsequent downstream ridging out ahead of the trough ejection eastward. Such that when it rolls up its lead short wave ridging, it superimposes over the southeastern heights and the whole scenario feeds back in forcing a farther NW track. Unfortunately, if that is the case, it would all be wrong, because it would be based on model-based permutations erroring into the flow, not real parametrics. I do not know if this is right - but, it could offer a possible explanation as why the stubborn disregard for growing colder consensus. I agree about the euro bias, but what about the PV to the north? I think the GFS may also show its bias up there too, which is causing the flatter depiction to the flow over the northeast. The euro ensembles continue to hold firm. Maybe they ticked east a little, but they look dead on to the op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 So we can conclude that South Carolina will be quiet on Friday? Just look at all this continued spread even amongst the NCEP ensembles, many south of the GFS op Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 So we can conclude that South Carolina will be quiet on Friday? No. FROPA Friday in SC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 22, 2011 Author Share Posted February 22, 2011 There exists the possibility of -sn or mix for some on Thursday night as the leading edge of warmer air moves in. Probably more for the interior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 So when do the NAM/GFS start coming north and Euro come se? It's gonna end up a se New Eng track...Cape hits 55 with roaring winds..Bob gets near 50..IJD hits low 40's..and it drops from there NW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Just look at all this continued spread even amongst the NCEP ensembles, many south of the GFS op More lines on there then a mirror full of cocaine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 I agree about the euro bias, but what about the PV to the north? I think the GFS may also show its bias up there too, which is causing the flatter depiction to the flow over the northeast. The euro ensembles continue to hold firm. Maybe they ticked east a little, but they look dead on to the op. yeah this is kind of like what we were talking about yesterday with competing model biases showing themselves here. should be interesting. if you just stepped back from the model runs and took the teleconnectors (a -PNA that is basically off the charts negative depending on the calculation used and what is a rapdily rising NAO over the next few days) it is hard to picture a low running from the southern plains to the benchmark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chim chiminey Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 NAM looks like it's handling the energy in the southwest better at T+30 (more stronger), coming to the Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 22, 2011 Author Share Posted February 22, 2011 yeah this is kind of like what we were talking about yesterday with competing model biases showing themselves here. should be interesting. if you just stepped back from the model runs and took the teleconnectors (a -PNA that is basically off the charts negative depending on the calculation used and what is a rapdily rising NAO over the next few days) it is hard to picture a low running from the southern plains to the benchmark. I talked about that at work yesterday. The pattern didn't really support a track south of sne like that. Yesterday I was thinking it could be more milder solution, but given the model runs and even the euro edging slightly east...it just may be more of a colder rain for some..lol. Who knows, I don't have any interests or stakes in this, other than to see how it plays out...but even a rain to snow event would be nice. It's just a shame to lose the snow that I had. That's what is bumming me out. Congrats on those that get a 35 rain event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 NAM looks like it's handling the energy in the southwest better at T+30 (more stronger), coming to the Euro? looks fairly similar so far through 24hrs to its 12z run. Edit: maybe a hair sharper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 looks fairly similar so far through 24hrs to its 12z run. at 48 hrs its a touch warmer, stronger ss, this looks like a further north solution to me, but who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Very similar to its prior run so far through 42hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Very similar to its prior run so far through 42hrs eh...not really...it's more amplified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 I talked about that at work yesterday. The pattern didn't really support a track south of sne like that. Yesterday I was thinking it could be more milder solution, but given the model runs and even the euro edging slightly east...it just may be more of a colder rain for some..lol. Who knows, I don't have any interests or stakes in this, other than to see how it plays out...but even a rain to snow event would be nice. It's just a shame to lose the snow that I had. That's what is bumming me out. Congrats on those that get a 35 rain event. yeah definitely same boat here. i'd actually enjoy the euro more with respect to MBY (assuming the GFS is garbage of course) just because it probably offers a slightly more interesting weather day. but all-in-all, i don't care that much. LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chim chiminey Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 looks fairly similar so far through 24hrs to its 12z run. Edit: maybe a hair sharper it looks a tick more robust after it crosses the rockies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 People are Leon letting this run... It's warmer at the surface at 48 for sure. We know what that means Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 22, 2011 Author Share Posted February 22, 2011 yeah definitely same boat here. i'd actually enjoy the euro more with respect to MBY (assuming the GFS is garbage of course) just because it probably offers a slightly more interesting weather day. but all-in-all, i don't care that much. LOL. I'm putting Sarah Mclachlan on my ipod and finding the nearest garage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chim chiminey Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 People are Leon letting this run... It's warmer at the surface at 48 for sure. We know what that means Euro TKO. It still has convective issues so more and more north it will come Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 good soaking over much of sne at 66. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 I'm over to non-snow at 72hr. How many runs in a row now has the EC and its ensembles been a cutter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 I'm putting Sarah Mclachlan on my ipod and finding the nearest garage. or this...go to around 1:40 +/- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chim chiminey Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 strong low over NYC at 72, no triple point in sight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 22, 2011 Author Share Posted February 22, 2011 or this...go to around 1:40 +/- Good lord..lol. The guy was even holding an umbrella.. Well anyways, hopefully we get some snow on Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 :lmao: So we can conclude that South Carolina will be quiet on Friday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 22, 2011 Author Share Posted February 22, 2011 strong low over NYC at 72, no triple point in sight. There doesn't have to be one. It may just move over se mass too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Greens and whites cash in big time verbatium this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 nam is starting to show the screaming SW jet too. 75+ knots at about 2K feet now on this run for parts of SE regions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 There doesn't have to be one. It may just move over se mass too. Looks a little warm This one has been great entertainment. Don't think we will have the close to final answer until 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 I'm over to non-snow at 72hr. How many runs in a row now has the EC and its ensembles been a cutter? 13, but it came a bit SE today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Greens and whites cash in big time verbatium this run Powderfreak FTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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