codfishsnowman Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Does the euro allow for a few inches of snow first before all the rain for interior sne? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 22, 2011 Author Share Posted February 22, 2011 Even the Canadian ensembles are south..lol. I was just looking at the Canadian on the ewall site, and that track sort of makes sense. Basically it moves up to near PIT and then jumps east to the NJ coast and then moves over se areas. If you loop it, it makes sense. That's kind of what I envision. Maybe it jumps east of the Apps like they normally do and move across eastern or se areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 By a narrow margin, I think the Canadian looks pretty good for around here.... Even the Canadian ensembles are south..lol. I was just looking at the Canadian on the ewall site, and that track sort of makes sense. Basically it moves up to near PIT and then jumps east to the NJ coast and then moves over se areas. If you loop it, it makes sense. That's kind of what I envision. Maybe it jumps east of the Apps like they normally do and move across eastern or se areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 I believe we must go with the robust 50 member ensemble mean track due to it's robustness. Hpc humpin euro bareback Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 I think a little front end sn/mix will happen for you guys. The question is what happens after. I'd feel better even if we had a little ridging to the ne instead of srly winds ahead of the low. That would definitely ensure a track to your south. But we''ll see. It might be something that goes over me..or just west. It'll be a SNY-CT-RI-BOS track with sfc low. The problem is the mid-level features are awful, not the sfc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
8611Blizz Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Even the Canadian ensembles are south..lol. I was just looking at the Canadian on the ewall site, and that track sort of makes sense. Basically it moves up to near PIT and then jumps east to the NJ coast and then moves over se areas. If you loop it, it makes sense. That's kind of what I envision. Maybe it jumps east of the Apps like they normally do and move across eastern or se areas. Scott do you see anything that leads you to believe that you and I might get something on the front end? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Even the Canadian ensembles are south..lol. I was just looking at the Canadian on the ewall site, and that track sort of makes sense. Basically it moves up to near PIT and then jumps east to the NJ coast and then moves over se areas. If you loop it, it makes sense. That's kind of what I envision. Maybe it jumps east of the Apps like they normally do and move across eastern or se areas. I have a hypothesis that might offer explanation as to why the the Euro is persisting along this line of drilling the low up W baroclinic axis that way. First of all, said axis is difused some up this way; though not helping, that really isn't what I think is the problem here. The Euro has a southwestern CONUS lowering heights behavior/bias to some degree. This used to be more demonstrative in years past; since upgrades have taken place, there has been some improvement, but overall the bias still lurks and we have seen it play out a couple of times this season. What the hypothesis is: If the ECMWF is exercising that bias here, that means that it is over amplified with the subsequent downstream ridging out ahead of the trough ejection eastward. Such that when it rolls up its lead short wave ridging, it superimposes over the southeastern heights and the whole scenario feeds back in forcing a farther NW track. Unfortunately, if that is the case, it would all be wrong, because it would be based on model-based permutations erroring into the flow, not real parametrics. I do not know if this is right - but, it could offer a possible explanation as why the stubborn disregard for growing colder consensus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Good call by messanger about some feedback issues.. A PATTERN MORE TYPICAL OF EARLY SPRING RATHER THAN LATE WINTER SEEMS LIKELY DURING THE UPCOMING MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD...WITH A MEAN BUT SOMEWHAT ACTIVE WESTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH DRIFTING SLOWLY EASTWARD BY DAYS 6/7 WHILE A MEAN UPPER RIDGE HOLDS OVER FLORIDA. WHILE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE-SCALE FLOW...CONSIDERABLE SOLUTION SPREAD AND RUN-TO-RUN VARIABILITY ARE EVIDENT IN THE SHORTWAVE PATTERN DETAILS AS EARLY AS DAY 4...WITH THE 12Z GFS/CANADIAN MAINTAINING A SUBSTANTIALLY MORE SOUTHERN TRACK WITH A CYCLONE APPROACHING THE APPALACHIANS... WHICH APPEARS AT LEAST IN PART INFLUENCED BY CONVECTIVE GRID-SCALE FEEDBACK. THUS...THEIR SOLUTIONS HAVE BEEN IGNORED IN FAVOR OF THE 12Z UKMET/00-12Z ECMWF/GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEANS WHICH HAVE THE LOW PROGRESSING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...OR ABOUT 275 NM FARTHER NORTH...A HUGE DIFFERENCE FOR ONLY A DAY 4 PREDICTION. IF TRUE...THE INGREDIENTS SHOULD COME TOGETHER FOR A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM FROM KANSAS TOWARD MICHIGAN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ELSEWHERE...THE 12Z GFS HAS MOVED MORE TOWARD THE MODEL CONSENSUS WITH THE EVOLUTION OF A SMALL UPPER LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEFORE DEVIATING SUFFICIENTLY FROM THE CONSENSUS TO JUSTIFY A QUICK TRANSITION OR PREFERENCE TOWARD THE GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEANS FOR DAYS 4-7. CONFIDENCE AS A WHOLE REMAINS ABOVE AVERAGE DAY 3...BEFORE FALLING TO BELOW AVERAGE DAYS 4-7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 By a narrow margin, I think the Canadian looks pretty good for around here.... NaEFS looks sweet for you., combined ENS of GFS GGEM, pretty much uniform agreement with individual members tracking LP from NJ across the Canal. Too warm for much of SNE but interior areas look sweet, pretty much what I expect is a track from NYC to BOS with colder frozen stuff Will Pete Hunchback to you to Dryslut. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 I have a hypothesis that might offer explanation as to why the the Euro is persisting along this line of drilling the low up W baroclinic axis that way. First of all, said axis is difused some up this way; though not helping, that really isn't what I think is the problem here. The Euro has a southwestern CONUS lowering heights behavior/bias to some degree. This used to be more demonstrative in years past; since upgrades have taken place, there has been some improvement, but overall the bias still lurks and we have seen it play out a couple of times this season. What the hypothesis is: If the ECMWF is exercising that bias here, that means that it is over amplified with the subsequent downstream ridging out ahead of the trough ejection eastward. Such that when it rolls up its lead short wave ridging, it superimposes over the southeastern heights and the whole scenario feeds back in forcing a farther NW track. Unfortunately, if that is the case, it would all be wrong, because it would be based on model-based permutations erroring into the flow, not real parametrics. I do not know if this is right - but, it could offer a possible explanation as why the stubborn disregard for growing colder consensus. 50 member robustness convective fdbk ignore ignore ignore jan 25 ahhhhhhhhhhh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 NaEFS looks sweet for you., combined ENS of GFS GGEM, pretty much uniform agreement with individual members tracking LP from NJ across the Canal. Too warm for much of SNE but interior areas look sweet, pretty much what I expect is a track from NYC to BOS with colder frozen stuff Will Pete Hunchback to you to Dryslut. I feel invisible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 I feel invisible Mark Who? lol Your in there to Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Mark Who? lol Im just carrying your bags you slut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Im just carrying your bags you slut Yeah, All the way to the snow stake Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 The winter of 2010-2011 will forever go down as the year of "Convective Feedback Disregarded Snowstorms" How many times have we seen this before? I'm really scratching my head on this one. HPC is almost saying, "We don't care what the other models show, were sticking with the Euro to the grave" I would give up snow for the next three years to have the Euro shift 400 miles SE on the next run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 SREF's individual members look like the GGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 The winter of 2010-2011 will forever go down as the year of "Convective Feedback Disregarded Snowstorms" How many times have we seen this before? I'm really scratching my head on this one. HPC is almost saying, "We don't care what the other models show, were sticking with the Euro to the grave" I would give up snow for the next three years to have the Euro shift 400 miles SE on the next run. Theyve had a really bad year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 If GFS and NAM are consistently showing convection run after run when the low is first forming, maybe that convection is legit, and imo is not a good reason to throw out the model altogether. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 I have a hypothesis that might offer explanation as to why the the Euro is persisting along this line of drilling the low up W baroclinic axis that way. First of all, said axis is difused some up this way; though not helping, that really isn't what I think is the problem here. The Euro has a southwestern CONUS lowering heights behavior/bias to some degree. This used to be more demonstrative in years past; since upgrades have taken place, there has been some improvement, but overall the bias still lurks and we have seen it play out a couple of times this season. What the hypothesis is: If the ECMWF is exercising that bias here, that means that it is over amplified with the subsequent downstream ridging out ahead of the trough ejection eastward. Such that when it rolls up its lead short wave ridging, it superimposes over the southeastern heights and the whole scenario feeds back in forcing a farther NW track. Unfortunately, if that is the case, it would all be wrong, because it would be based on model-based permutations erroring into the flow, not real parametrics. I do not know if this is right - but, it could offer a possible explanation as why the stubborn disregard for growing colder consensus. 1000% agree! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 SREF's individual members look like the GGEM thats a nice map for the SREFs do you have a link for that please? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 thats a nice map for the SREFs do you have a link for that please? http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/tpm/emchurr/tcgen/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Even the Canadian ensembles are south..lol. I was just looking at the Canadian on the ewall site, and that track sort of makes sense. Basically it moves up to near PIT and then jumps east to the NJ coast and then moves over se areas. If you loop it, it makes sense. That's kind of what I envision. Maybe it jumps east of the Apps like they normally do and move across eastern or se areas. That sounds like a wintry mix out here--I can live with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 the euro's LLJ is ridiculous for friday. basically 85 to 95 knots @ 850...and looks like a good 50 to 75 knots down around 925-950mb. same general theme it's had now on the last couple of runs. that ends up transporting highly anomalous PW values northward too - >1.2" up into SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 SREF's individual members look like the GGEM That track is more realistic that most of those members are showing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 I'm skiing in a slopestyle competition Saturday at Ski Sundown...man it might be an icy course. Someone could get hurt, I think... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Just look at all this continued spread even amongst the NCEP ensembles, many south of the GFS op Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Just look at all this continued spread even amongst the NCEP ensembles, many south of the GFS op. What a clusterf*** that is...literally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 22, 2011 Author Share Posted February 22, 2011 Scott do you see anything that leads you to believe that you and I might get something on the front end? In Somerville, I don't see much. Maybe if it hurried in, you could see a little sn/ip mix, but I think it's nothing to really get excited for, here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 http://www.emc.ncep..../emchurr/tcgen/ thank you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 What a clusterf*** that is...literally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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