Ginx snewx Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 That track on Friday is suspect, As you had mentioned, I think it will be a little further east, Don't see to many storms take the track the euro is showing This ^^^^^^ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 i agree Dryslot i either goes up the Stlawrence valley or SE of the current track. not expecting the current track to hold. my bet is on SE- easy money. Yeah, There is no way it takes that track, The 2 you outlined is more plausible, Could be fun times up here for us the next 7 days as we have 4 storms potentially Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Violently agree. These next 2-4 weeks could be amazing for the Midwest and NNE. That doesn't mean bad things for here..just that we run the risk for taint/rain events too. yeah it has all the makings of a very active/wet stretch where places in VT/NH/ME just get crushed...wouldn't take it to the bank yet but i'd like to be spending sometime in the white mountains. LOL. hopefully we can cash in on a couple/few as well. we are definitely walking the line in SNE, we just need to get on the right (actually the left) side of it a few times. storm next week (tue) is almost a carbon copy of friday's storm on the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 i agree Dryslot i either goes up the Stlawrence valley or SE of the current track. not expecting the current track to hold. my bet is on SE- easy money. Neither am I because it gives both of us snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 22, 2011 Author Share Posted February 22, 2011 yeah it has all the makings of a very active/wet stretch where places in VT/NH/ME just get crushed...wouldn't take it to the bank yet but i'd like to be spending sometime in the white mountains. LOL. hopefully we can cash in on a couple/few as well. we are definitely walking the line in SNE, we just need to get on the right (actually the left) side of it a few times. storm next week (tue) is almost a carbon copy of friday's storm on the euro. We need to nuke the stratosphere and get the -NAO back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Quite wrong, absolutely pure ice top to bottom, saturated from the torch and just brutal locked up ice. Fact is Euro moved SE this run, will not make a difference for me other than keeping high winds off shore more and allowing a colder rain. Your track record on snow melt is less than stellar this winter. You are good with snowfall for your area but the physics do not agree with your thoughts regarding snowmelt. Honestly it's probably even or close to it...either scenerio you lose 6" , either the cold rain or the 2-3 day warm dry torch (within a compacted snow depth) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 I snow shoed about a mile through the woods behind my place yesterday and the snow pack is so highly variable after that thaw. A few inches to few foot drifts in fields. Generally a good foot in the woods, but from like 6 inches under the thick Hemlocks to 2 feet in some sheltered hard wood areas. Then I crossed a creek and the refrozen ice flows are so mangled after run off last week - couldn't tell what was sound. So I managed to have one foot go thrygh ice down to my knee and puddles of water in my boot. -4 here today...not bad for Feb. 22. Quite wrong, absolutely pure ice top to bottom, saturated from the torch and just brutal locked up ice. Fact is Euro moved SE this run, will not make a difference for me other than keeping high winds off shore more and allowing a colder rain. Your track record on snow melt is less than stellar this winter. You are good with snowfall for your area but the physics do not agree with your thoughts regarding snowmelt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Violently disagree to the point of shaking your weenie like a rag doll ouch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 We need to nuke the stratosphere and get the -NAO back. maybe a couple of these bombs running through new england can at least temporarily lift heights up that weigh and give us a pseudo -nao for a few days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 When both are outliers, it's probably best to compromise. Now sometimes it's the ensembles, but so far..the ensembles are also very different. My gut sides more with the euro, but perhaps just a little more east. The euro ensembles will be interesting, but they will probably look like the op run. We have another potential disaster early next week as well. On both gfs/euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 yeah it has all the makings of a very active/wet stretch where places in VT/NH/ME just get crushed...wouldn't take it to the bank yet but i'd like to be spending sometime in the white mountains. LOL. hopefully we can cash in on a couple/few as well. we are definitely walking the line in SNE, we just need to get on the right (actually the left) side of it a few times. storm next week (tue) is almost a carbon copy of friday's storm on the euro. March 01 up there, good timing for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 22, 2011 Author Share Posted February 22, 2011 On both gfs/euro? Yes, but it has the look of an interior ice event too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Neither am I because it gives both of us snow. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 I'm guessing the low doesn't actually track over ALB...probably tries to redevelop a secondary just S of S coast or along it...nothing major though. It will be enough to keep the sfc warm front south of a chunk of the interior. Kevin gets 35F rain and perhaps there is a 31F icing issue in N ORH/Monads/N Berks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 At least around here we can't win with - NAO's lately. I fully expect that a negative NAO would just suppress it all southeast again. So I'll have to take my chances, hope to get lucky that we are just far enough northwest here (25 miles west of ALB) for some of these events to be a net plus snow-wise. We need to nuke the stratosphere and get the -NAO back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chim chiminey Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 storm next week (tue) is almost a carbon copy of friday's storm on the euro. trackwise, but it brings 60* dewpoints to the pike Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 22, 2011 Author Share Posted February 22, 2011 I'm guessing the low doesn't actually track over ALB...probably tries to redevelop a secondary just S of S coast or along it...nothing major though. It will be enough to keep the sfc warm front south of a chunk of the interior. Kevin gets 35F rain and perhaps there is a 31F icing issue in N ORH/Monads/N Berks. I think it could just ride up into the cp/eastern areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allenson Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 March 01 up there, good timing for me. That was a corker of a month around here. The hits were kept on hitting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 22, 2011 Author Share Posted February 22, 2011 At least around here we can't win with - NAO's lately. I fully expect that a negative NAO would just suppress it all southeast again. So I'll have to take my chances, hope to get lucky that we are just far enough northwest here (25 miles west of ALB) for some of these events to be a net plus snow-wise. But even a little blocking is good...something to keep the jet from riding too far north. I'm not just talking about this storm, but look ahead. We are going to have a huge battle on our hands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 trackwise, but it brings 60* dewpoints to the pike LOL. no it doesn't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 I think it could just ride up into the cp/eastern areas. It might like Feb 5-6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Yes, but it has the look of an interior ice event too. Thanks, at least we don't have a shortage of things to track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 I snow shoed about a mile through the woods behind my place yesterday and the snow pack is so highly variable after that thaw. A few inches to few foot drifts in fields. Generally a good foot in the woods, but from like 6 inches under the thick Hemlocks to 2 feet in some sheltered hard wood areas. Then I crossed a creek and the refrozen ice flows are so mangled after run off last week - couldn't tell what was sound. So I managed to have one foot go thrygh ice down to my knee and puddles of water in my boot. -4 here today...not bad for Feb. 22. Yea under the evergreens is clear here but the open stuff is just solid hard pack. Solid foot plus here with my close neighbors up the road in the 14-18 area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 I'm guessing the low doesn't actually track over ALB...probably tries to redevelop a secondary just S of S coast or along it...nothing major though. It will be enough to keep the sfc warm front south of a chunk of the interior. Kevin gets 35F rain and perhaps there is a 31F icing issue in N ORH/Monads/N Berks. That's exactly what I'm thinking..and maybe even some front end ice for me and you. With no cold in place..there's not gonna be any front end snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 IMO the odds favor the best snow occurring some place between me and you..... as a general rule in this pattern. Andy FTW. i agree Dryslot i either goes up the Stlawrence valley or SE of the current track. not expecting the current track to hold. my bet is on SE- easy money. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 It might like Feb 5-6. Without the t-storms this time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 I believe we must go with the robust 50 member ensemble mean track due to it's robustness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 It might like Feb 5-6. I got to 38 that night with rain..and then it below freezing by morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 I got to 38 that night with the rain..and then it below freezing by morning I iced pretty much all night...a repeat of that would be alright. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 22, 2011 Author Share Posted February 22, 2011 That's exactly what I'm thinking..and maybe even some front end ice for me and you. With no cold in place..there's not gonna be any front end snow I think a little front end sn/mix will happen for you guys. The question is what happens after. I'd feel better even if we had a little ridging to the ne instead of srly winds ahead of the low. That would definitely ensure a track to your south. But we''ll see. It might be something that goes over me..or just west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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