chim chiminey Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 is the shortwave in U.S. airspace yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 So how does Sunday's event look? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 steve might want to get his sandbags in order this week and secure all the tree tops. I'm thinking 18 hours above freezing will not require this. Bleh winds, Perhaps securing your recycle bins might be in order though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 So how does Sunday's event look? Snow for you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 is the shortwave in U.S. airspace yet? The northern stream shortwave is in Washington at the moment. The southern stream shortwave is still over the Pacific. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 22, 2011 Author Share Posted February 22, 2011 The differences in Quebec between the GFS/NAM and the ECMWF are remarkable. Yeah the west actually looks similar on both models, but Quebec and also the southern stream s/w are different. The euro is a little further north with the srn stream s/w and also further nw with the PV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 22, 2011 Author Share Posted February 22, 2011 Nice advisory event on the euro for Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Nice advisory event on the euro for Sunday. Looks like it leaves behind a trough over maine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Yeah the west actually looks similar on both models, but Quebec and also the southern stream s/w are different. The euro is a little further north with the srn stream s/w and also further nw with the PV. Same old BS....anything coming across the northern rockies is a fiasco until it's crossing/crossed. Same goes here...GFS splits the energy into two lobes with the southern piece being fairly strong as it runs around the Dakotas...others not so much. No clear picture from the RUC vs all the others so all we can do is sit back and wait. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Well if it got into the 50's to ski country then yeah we'd all lose the pack...but my thinking is flow stays e/ne and keeps the torch confined to SE New Eng Dude haven't you learned? you are above freezing for about 18 hours. How in the Sam hell do you lose an ice18-20 pack with that? even the worst Euro run was never going to decimate your snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 22, 2011 Author Share Posted February 22, 2011 The close up maps have the low going near Albany and nw mass, so it's not hard to see why it would't go further east, along the better baroclinic area over the cp. It could very well stay west, but it's something I could see happening. The system has copious amounts of moisture with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 22, 2011 Author Share Posted February 22, 2011 Looks like it leaves behind a trough over maine Yeah a little inv trough action at the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Come on..you can do better than that..Even Birvine can troll better Be sure you get at least 12 megapixel pics of how that rain runs off the icepack, I want clarity Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 I'm thinking 18 hours above freezing will not require this. Bleh winds, Perhaps secure your recycle bins might be in order though. get your tree tops taken care of now. 75+ knot (at least) 850 jet on the euro again on this run. 00z was like 100 knots. LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Dude haven't you learned? you are above freezing for about 18 hours. How in the Sam hell do you lose an ice18-20 pack with that? even the worst Euro run was never going to decimate your snow. if the Euro verified verbatim we would ALL lose more snowpack in 18 hours than we did in the 56 hour torch last week. FACT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Yeah a little inv trough action at the end. That track on Friday is suspect, As you had mentioned, I think it will be a little further east, Don't see to many storms take the track the euro is showing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Let's just focus on getting this continued trend on the Euro east enough to lock in ne flow and interior chill..and then focus on sunday's 4-8 inch event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 So is the Euro the last hold out with a track this far north? The GFS is so far south now that we are on the northern fringe of the snow here. The close up maps have the low going near Albany and nw mass, so it's not hard to see why it would't go further east, along the better baroclinic area over the cp. It could very well stay west, but it's something I could see happening. The system has copious amounts of moisture with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 this pattern could be pretty amazing for the C/NNE posters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 this pattern could be pretty amazing for all the NE posters. Nice!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 22, 2011 Author Share Posted February 22, 2011 this pattern could be pretty amazing for the C/NNE posters. Violently agree. These next 2-4 weeks could be amazing for the Midwest and NNE. That doesn't mean bad things for here..just that we run the risk for taint/rain events too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 in terms of qpf at least, there is a signficant shift SE about 100-150 miles up here. pretty big. cant say im surprised Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Euro has QPF like Dolly Parton has breasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 this pattern could be pretty amazing for the C/NNE posters. 4 potential storms coming 2 days apart starting on Friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 The 5pm tv broadcasts should be interesting. Some of the tv mets usually hug the gfs, but they also usually go with the warmer solution. Who knows what they'll say tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 if the Euro verified verbatim we would ALL lose more snowpack in 18 hours than we did in the 56 hour torch last week. FACT Quite wrong, absolutely pure ice top to bottom, saturated from the torch and just brutal locked up ice. Fact is Euro moved SE this run, will not make a difference for me other than keeping high winds off shore more and allowing a colder rain. Your track record on snow melt is less than stellar this winter. You are good with snowfall for your area but the physics do not agree with your thoughts regarding snowmelt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 That track on Friday is suspect, As you had mentioned, I think it will be a little further east, Don't see to many storms take the track the euro is showing i agree Dryslot i either goes up the Stlawrence valley or SE of the current track. not expecting the current track to hold. my bet is on SE- easy money. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 22, 2011 Author Share Posted February 22, 2011 So is the Euro the last hold out with a track this far north? The GFS is so far south now that we are on the northern fringe of the snow here. When both are outliers, it's probably best to compromise. Now sometimes it's the ensembles, but so far..the ensembles are also very different. My gut sides more with the euro, but perhaps just a little more east. The euro ensembles will be interesting, but they will probably look like the op run. We have another potential disaster early next week as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 The differences in Quebec between the GFS/NAM and the ECMWF are remarkable. What about the GFS/NAM and UKMET? This is crazy for a 72 hour forecast! UKMET rains up here, GFS/NAM partly sunny, GGEM light to moderate snowfall, EURO snow/mix... wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Quite wrong, absolutely pure ice top to bottom, saturated from the torch and just brutal locked up ice. Fact is Euro moved SE this run, will not make a difference for me other than keeping high winds off shore more and allowing a colder rain. Your track record on snow melt is less than stellar this winter. You are good with snowfall for your area but the physics do not agree with your thoughts regarding snowmelt. Violently disagree to the point of shaking you like a rag doll Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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