Damage In Tolland Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 I wonder if some mets will rush and cover Friday's forecast with tons of snowflakes, at noon. You could have just gone ahead and said rip and readers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chim chiminey Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 so it's NCEP models vs. the world. C'mon Stars n Stripes! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 It made a substantial northward shift. Confluence to north is weaker and SE ridge is stronger. Low tracks from WV to just off downeast ME. AWT..GFS last to the party. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Euro will still show a low through Albany How many of those verify a year 10%? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 22, 2011 Author Share Posted February 22, 2011 Ensembles look like a track near the Cape or ACK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Ha...probably. I just can't buy the snowy scenario yet...but hopefully it happens. It looks like it wants to be an ice storm for the climo favored areas when a marginal airmass is in place. N ORH/Monads/Berks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 gfs ensembles look like they go just over or south of ACK at the surface...with the 850 low riding over SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Canadian would still be a snow type front end, followed by ice in central areas. MPM sees a good snowstorm. Really not much north despite some assertions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 22, 2011 Author Share Posted February 22, 2011 Ensembles look like a track near the Cape or ACK. I take that back. They go off of NJ south of LI and looks like south of ACK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Canadian would still be a snow type front end, followed by ice in central areas. MPM sees a good snowstorm. That's been the middle of the road solution for the past few days, it seems. Last night's 00z seems similar to 12z... snow in Gods Country, ALB, S.VT, S.NH with mix south of there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 gfs ensembles look like they go just over or south of ACK at the surface...with the 850 low riding over SNE That is a shift SE...HMmmmmmmmmmmmmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Benchmarkbuoy Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Again, this isn't about models. It's about what this pattern will support. A positive NAO pattern for example means that high pressure ahead of this storm will be to the East of New York City which is a warm signal. Further, the upper level disturbance even on the "cold" GFS is over the interior, not the coastal waters which signals a further west track than the GFS guidance. This is why there is a difference between people forecasting based on model trends and forecasting based on meteorological law. I don't care about model trends. You have to ask yourself, does the solution make sense? How do you keep cold air in place with southeasterly winds ahead of the storm before precipitation even reaches the area. How do you get the cold air to come in fast enough without dry air and subsidence ends the precipitation early? Further, what would force the storm track to be so far east when all the best upper level dynamics are clearly over central Pennsylvania, central New York, and then New England. Don't give me model trends, give me physics. steve d - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 22, 2011 Author Share Posted February 22, 2011 I just can't buy the snowy scenario yet...but hopefully it happens. It looks like it wants to be an ice storm for the climo favored areas when a marginal airmass is in place. N ORH/Monads/Berks. I agree...a BM track?? Maybe something like the Canadian or some sort of track over ern areas. I have little confidence though, but I have a hard time with the GFS op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 I think the 12z shift is real both the NAM and the GFS have shifted southeast with the confluence in Quebec....but the GFS was probably too far SE to begin with...and still remains too far southeast. The ECMWF has had issues being too amplified in this range so I think it's too far northwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Again, this isn't about models. It's about what this pattern will support. A positive NAO pattern for example means that high pressure ahead of this storm will be to the East of New York City which is a warm signal. Further, the upper level disturbance even on the "cold" GFS is over the interior, not the coastal waters which signals a further west track than the GFS guidance. This is why there is a difference between people forecasting based on model trends and forecasting based on meteorological law. I don't care about model trends. You have to ask yourself, does the solution make sense? How do you keep cold air in place with southeasterly winds ahead of the storm before precipitation even reaches the area. How do you get the cold air to come in fast enough without dry air and subsidence ends the precipitation early? Further, what would force the storm track to be so far east when all the best upper level dynamics are clearly over central Pennsylvania, central New York, and then New England. Don't give me model trends, give me physics. steve d - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 How many of those verify a year 10%? You don;t remember all those inland runners in January? What were you asleep? We must have had at least 4 of those....oh no wait those were just MODELED inland runners at 3+ days.... The UK and GGEM are never prone to putting lows too far NW, just like the GFS isn't prone to going too far SE. The middle solutions are probably going to be the best bet but we shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Again, this isn't about models. It's about what this pattern will support. A positive NAO pattern for example means that high pressure ahead of this storm will be to the East of New York City which is a warm signal. Further, the upper level disturbance even on the "cold" GFS is over the interior, not the coastal waters which signals a further west track than the GFS guidance. This is why there is a difference between people forecasting based on model trends and forecasting based on meteorological law. I don't care about model trends. You have to ask yourself, does the solution make sense? How do you keep cold air in place with southeasterly winds ahead of the storm before precipitation even reaches the area. How do you get the cold air to come in fast enough without dry air and subsidence ends the precipitation early? Further, what would force the storm track to be so far east when all the best upper level dynamics are clearly over central Pennsylvania, central New York, and then New England. Don't give me model trends, give me physics. steve d - LOL. has one person said they think the GFS is right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 22, 2011 Author Share Posted February 22, 2011 I think the 12z shift is real both the NAM and the GFS have shifted southeast with the confluence in Quebec....but the GFS was probably too far SE to begin with...and still remains too far southeast. The ECMWF has had issues being too amplified in this range so I think it's too far northwest. Yeah both biases possibly at play here. I still don't like the situation for my area, but if Kevin wants a 35F rain instead of 50...I guess it matters. I'd be lying if I said my attention hasn't perked up, but I have my guard up for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Yeah both biases possibly at play here. I still don't like the situation for my area, but if Kevin wants a 35F rain instead of 50...I guess it matters. I'd be lying if I said my attention hasn't perked up, but I have my guard up for now. Yep that's about all it is right now. We've all learned that there's no sense in getting too excited one way or the other yet. -- As an aside the single guys on this forum...don't go to bars go to the Apple Store. Holy crap, last time I saw that many beautiful women was on a runway. Would have brought a six pack to the genius bar but it seems that's frowned upon now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Ensembles look like a track near the Cape or ACK. Thats probably more realistic, Would fall between the 2 op camps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 GGEM is North by 35 miles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 lol wow. The good thing is the middle ground of tthe euro and gfs is snow--ice---rain for me, so I THINK 50s and rain is off the table. I have a bad feeling the euro will hold strong, but we'll see. Im highly interested in what it has to say. If the Euro caves, major fail for the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 I take that back. They go off of NJ south of LI and looks like south of ACK. Wow, EnS fall to the Op Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 It would not suprise me at all if the GFS lost this storm all together on the next run. We have seen it time and time again this year. GFS is the first one to come on board, then it goes astray and its usually late for the party in the end. The GFS does have the support of the NAM and to a certain extent its ensebles so it cann't be totaly disregarded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 from Harry which i found interesting for posterity sakes: Odd situation however the euro ensembles are still fully on board. By that i mean all 51 members were on board. Well as of the 00z run. Would be one of the bigger busts i have seen in a while with both the euro and it's ensembles inside this range. The difference seems to be is the GFS/NAM have a stronger front runner tracking across S.Canada just north of the lakes ahead of this system. That ends up forcing this system farther south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 lol wow. The good thing is the middle ground of tthe euro and gfs is snow--ice---rain for me, so I THINK 50s and rain is off the table. I have a bad feeling the euro will hold strong, but we'll see. Im highly interested in what it has to say. If the Euro caves, major fail for the euro. It would be akin to the fall after the NCEP "PAY NO ATTENTION TO THE 12Z GFS AND NAM RUNS TODAY. OR LAST NIGHT, OR TOMORROW FOR THAT MATTER" day prior to the Boxer Day storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 GGEM is North by 35 miles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 The funny thing is we are 3 days out, and for some storms this year whdh put a map out at this point. If they did that this time, what would it say? 50s and rain with a chance of up to 8 inches of snow or maybe some sleet , or rain. High between 32F and 55F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 It would not suprise me at all if the GFS lost this storm all together on the next run. We have seen it time and time again this year. GFS is the first one to come on board, then it goes astray and its usually late for the party in the end. The GFS does have the support of the NAM and to a certain extent its ensebles so it cann't be totaly disregarded. it doesn't usually lose storms in this range IMO...it can sniff out threats in the 160-240 hour range...then loses them around 100-144 hours...then get it back closer in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 The funniest forecast I've seen in quite some time is in my zone for Thursday night. A chance of rain, snow, sleet and freezing rain with a low of 31. Chance of precip 70%. In other words, they don't have a clue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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