Damage In Tolland Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 It's funny sounding, sure - but honestly, no. I'm not rooting per se one way or the other. I am very excited by the wonders of weather and what can and cannot happen, in general. It's part of my make up since my earliest childhood memories. It may be easy to confuse that enthusiasm for ringing on "snow" - it's not the snow though. When I was 18 months old, I think that is my first memory - I don't recall much of anything prior. Near strobe lightning in cloud, and CG boomed loudly across the nocturnal skies of Battlecreek Michigan, circa 1971. I had two older sisters smack in dab in the age range of -oh my god the thunder's coming to kill us all- congitive development. My parents were fleeting from one bedroom to the other trying to do their best. All the sudden, my mother stops, grabs my father's arm, and they simultaneously said, "oh schit - John's bedroom is in the attack". They came bursting through the door in a panting entrance, only to find me pinned to the window with eyes like saucerlids - "Dad, look at the storm!" I remember saying that to this day. I can assure you "fear" had nothing to do with my mentality at that moment. It was pure, unadulterated fascination and awe. And I have been that way ever since. You see, I don't care for whether it is thundering, blizzarding, sleeting, snowing, so much as that it does; and at the end of the day, though my mood and enthusiasm really wishes the seasonal change were underway, I am fully capable of putting aside those druthers in lieu the governing fascination for it all. There really is a disconnect available to people there, if they choose to seek it. :weenie: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 22, 2011 Author Share Posted February 22, 2011 Despite qpf, the GFS is a perfect track for the Pike too..lol. Hangs the deformation area overhead for hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Typically i would say this is where we want the GFS right now but this year has proved otherwise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 GEFS mean will be from BUF to BTV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 GFS is coming in incredibly stronger/sharper with the next wave at 138hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Despite qpf, the GFS is a perfect track for the Pike too..lol. Hangs the deformation area overhead for hours. It's a major winter storm for all of SNE..hard to believe how bad that POS is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Well lets see what everything else does. I wouldn't pop the corks yet, but I bet Kevin is pouring champagne on himself right now. He might be too far north in another 24 hours. I know people hate the QPF talk, but QPF and associated lift is quite weak north of the Mass Pike...but I'm sure folks would take 2-4" of snow over rain anyday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Typically i would say this is where we want the GFS right now but this year has proved otherwise I'm happy where it is. I highly doubt the jackpot depicted this run will verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 22, 2011 Author Share Posted February 22, 2011 It's a major winter storm for all of SNE..hard to believe how bad that POS is Well we'll find out soon if it is or not. I have a hard time buying it that far south for now, but confidence in anything right now is low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 It's a major winter storm for all of SNE..hard to believe how bad that POS is I admire your consistant resolve wrt the suckitude of the GFS... you are not bending an inch Will you give it the props if Euro caves? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Ukie more or less held serve - it's usually a good indicator of what the ECMWF will do. It has a slightly weaker southern stream system initially, but still manages to deepen the low to 990 mb over NE Ohio by 72 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 22, 2011 Author Share Posted February 22, 2011 My guess is that the ensembles will bring it across I-95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 You see, I don't care for whether it is thundering, blizzarding, sleeting, snowing, so much as that it does; and at the end of the day, ......I am fully capable of putting aside those druthers in lieu the governing fascination for it all. There really is a disconnect available to people there, if they choose to seek it. This is the common bond we all have. Even in the hearts of the pure snow weenies there was this unreal fascination with our two severe tstorms this winter. Our fascination from all what is weather is very evident day to day. We have had an amazing variety of extremes this winter, not boring, it is obvious with the mega thermocline the fun continues. When the inevitable 65 knot soueaster hits we will embrace the wonder as much as we embraced massive snow dumps, it's who we are and what we do. Kevin kinda spiked the ball with his GFS comes way NW post. Leon Lett award of the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Ukie more or less held serve - it's usually a good indicator of what the ECMWF will do. It has a slightly weaker southern stream system initially, but still manages to deepen the low to 990 mb over NE Ohio by 72 hours. GGEm will be waaayyy north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Ukie more or less held serve - it's usually a good indicator of what the ECMWF will do. It has a slightly weaker southern stream system initially, but still manages to deepen the low to 990 mb over NE Ohio by 72 hours. ctually last night's UK (ooz run) looked pretty good for colder scenario over the interior of the NEUS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 It's a major winter storm for all of SNE..hard to believe how bad that POS is Ehh, its a light to moderate snowfall. Advisory to low-end warning. I'd be surprised if even the clown maps have anyone getting 8" or more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 ctually last night's UK (ooz run) looked pretty good for colder scenario over the interior of the NEUS didn't it have the low over ALB? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 I'm happy where it is. I highly doubt the jackpot depicted this run will verify. True, But i can tell you where it won't be......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 The anticipation of the next Euro is hilarious... The run of our lives!!! (when it is really the difference between a 2-4" event for most and some cold 39F rain) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 The GFS gives you the impression that it wants to eventually drive this thing even further south and east and run it straight into the heart of the SE ridge. I'm not buying this but I do believe the Euro is going to make a major shift today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 It made a substantial northward shift. Confluence to north is weaker and SE ridge is stronger. Low tracks from WV to just off downeast ME. GGEm will be waaayyy north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Boy, the GFS makes me think I may need to keep my broom handy. Or perhaps a few good gusts of wind will clear the windshield for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 22, 2011 Author Share Posted February 22, 2011 It made a substantial northward shift. Confluence to north is weaker and SE ridge is stronger. Low tracks from WV to just off downeast ME. I still think it will cross sne somewhere. Maybe somewhere over the CP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 22, 2011 Author Share Posted February 22, 2011 Canadian would still be a snow type front end, followed by ice in central areas. MPM sees a good snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 What a rainstorm next week it's showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Canadian would still be a snow type front end, followed by ice in central areas. MPM sees a good snowstorm. That makes MPM a happy camper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 22, 2011 Author Share Posted February 22, 2011 I wonder if some mets will rush and cover Friday's forecast with tons of snowflakes, at noon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 I wonder if some mets will rush and cover Friday's forecast with tons of snowflakes, at noon. Kevin hates when all symbols are not used in a 7 day... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Euro will still show a low through Albany Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 22, 2011 Author Share Posted February 22, 2011 Euro will still show a low through Albany Ha...probably. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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