Typhoon Tip Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 I would take a miracle to get a snow event in SNE with that 1026mb over Bermuda extending north past 45 degrees. It's not something you typically see leading 3-6" or 4-8", no... Which by the way, it's kind of amusing actually that there is so much consternation and fuss over a pedestrian little fast moving, ultimately ...low impact event. But, I think it is the phenomenal disparaty depicted, and the epic battle of the Euro versus the underdawg GFS that creates all the entertainment value. Personally, if I could have my druthers this would go so far W that we soar to 70F and drill the snow pack all the way to the 60th parallel, heralding in the earliest summer since the late Hadean period of Geological history. I'm done with winter, emotionally, and to great extent intellectually, too. I'm sick of this crap, and following this stuff is a bore to me - I'd rather be setting up my tri-pod for an afternoon of cloud videography in 88F/70F, and TCU abounding... But, that is not our reality for now... So, struggling with objectivity - one thing that glaringly stands out to me as I peer back over this winter, the lesser likely solution relative to all and conventional wisdom, has succeeded with above normal frequency. The Euro seriously pooping its pants back when, and now ...I hate to say it is written on the wall (at least possible) it will do so again, is showing that there is something quite bizarre, physically, about the larger scale circulation system that is playing havoc with current state of the art in modeling regardless of model type and sophistication. As I mentioned, no model deserves an auto-nod given to that complexity that has been proven to date. One thing though - I haven't heard it mentioned and it is a very real concern... Even though there is not a great deal of +PP in the lower troposphere to assist a southerly baroclinic axis/placement, the "static" nature of the cold...more importantly "thermodynamically" cold (meaning lower DP in a deep range of the ambient soundings), is dense this time. And, sits over a pervasive positive anomaly snow pack... That offers resistence in its own right and it might be - though I cannot imagine how the Euro could be missing this with it 4-D this and that ... - the GFS is taking this into account. It just doesn't sit well with me that the NAM has had a C+, B- year (which is above normal for that guidance) in its 60-84 hour range, and is collapsing toward the GFS. Throw in that "least likely scenario" implicaiton from above, and, heh... I dunno - I think conventional forecast philosophy may not be working yet again in this bizarro 2010-2011 winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 What's interesting to me is that we have not had a true lakes cutter since 12/12-13-that's an amazing run... I may be mistaken but I think generally in a nina, the northern stream is more dominant which would have a tendency to not allow storms to cut into the lakes, not sure though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Friday doesn't even seem like a different forecast to me....pretty cut-and-dry.....you don't necessarily need a good high to have this thing squash\redevelop over se ma...they are usually climatologically inclined to do so; maybe I am speaking out of my crack, but I have always felt that there are oragraphic inhibitors to bodily cutting across the spine of NE. Obviously it happens, but they will find their way into the se corner of NE at least excuse imaginable.....I don't think 55* and rain, but not an exciting event, either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 I'm trying to figure out why we get a triple point without a high to the north. Andy also referenced a triple point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 well kevin it is, full sun, black shingles, it is what it is. lol, such a doubting thomas you are. As excpected guidance moving to a colder solution, nam says expect snow in sne for friday..........euro will fold like a cheap tent. We are getting a few drips off the back of the house despite it being 15.7 Sun today, kitchen sink Friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 22, 2011 Author Share Posted February 22, 2011 Friday doesn't even seem like a different forecast to me....pretty cut-and-dry.....you don't necessarily need a good high to have this thing squash\redevelop over se ma...they are usually climatologically inclined to do so; maybe I am speaking out of my crack, but I have always felt that there are oragraphic inhibitors to bodily cutting across the spine of NE. Obviously it happens, but they will find their way into the se corner of NE at least excuse imaginable.....I don't think 55* and rain, but not an exciting event, either. And you would be right about that. Most of the time it's either across the cp of sne, or west of the Apps, in NY state. There are reasons for this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 One thing though - I haven't heard it mentioned and it is a very real concern... Even though there is not a great deal of +PP in the lower troposphere to assist a southerly baroclinic axis/placement, the "static" nature of the cold...more importantly "thermodynamically" cold (meaning lower DP in a deep range of the ambient soundings), is dense this time. And, sits over a pervasive positive anomaly snow pack... That offers resistence in its own right and it might be - though I cannot imagine how the Euro could be missing this with it 4-D this and that ... - the GFS is taking this into account. Does this make much of a difference? Heavy heavy low level cold not scouring away? Is there never snow on the ground in Europe? And please promise that you won't go into hibernation once the winter threats are in the rearview... we really missed your epic dark humor laced with astounding analysis last summer/fall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Also folks - keep in mind while we hem and haw and subversively jab at one another while making it appear friendly ( Lol - oh man), at 60-66hours, it may already be light snowing in the area... This is interesting, there is all kinds of feed-back from that. That breakout lead IB pulse may saturate a 20F DP boundary layer up this way, and that would DEFINITELY offer some additional llv resistance to taking a low W. Not a lot - no, but, if the 500mb v-max translation regroups S of LI like the erstwhile GFS, and now NAM solutions show, than that's when that definition enters concern. Also, another detail popping out is that there is actually more +PP showing up in this NAM solution over priors, and it is representative as an arm extending E from southern Manitoba polar high - I think the -EPO is transatively effecting this system's track at this point. Transitive in the sense that the 1st object doesn't appear to effect on the 2nd in the series, but does effect the 3rd. (It's a branch of mathematics but we won't get into that...). Anyway, the -EPO related production of said surface ridging is then ....'oozing' for lack of better word, high sfc pressure E; such that at 84 hours this wave simple can't be in CNY because there is rising pressures there. Fascinating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 I'm trying to figure out why we get a triple point without a high to the north. The TP development often occurs with lows approaching the Appalachians from the west regardless of whether or not there is a high to the north. Then again there appears to be a "neck" of the high ridging building east across SE Canada from Lk Superior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 And you would be right about that. Most of the time it's either across the cp of sne, or west of the Apps, in NY state. There are reasons for this. Because mountains don't start rotating - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 22, 2011 Author Share Posted February 22, 2011 Because mountains down start rotating - Lets talk about potential vorticity........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Also folks - keep in mind while we hem and haw and subversively jab at one another while making it appear friendly ( Lol - oh man), at 60-66hours, it may already be light snowing in the area... This is interesting, there is all kinds of feed-back from that. That breakout lead IB pulse may saturate a 20F DP boundary layer up this way, and that would DEFINITELY offer some additional llv resistance to taking a low W. Not a lot - no, but, if the 500mb v-max translation regroups S of LI like the erstwhile GFS, and now NAM solutions show, than that's when that definition enters concern. Also, another detail popping out is that there is actually more +PP showing up in this NAM solution over priors, and it is representative as an arm extending E from southern Manitoba polar high - I think the -EPO is transatively effecting this system's track at this point. Transitive in the sense that the 1st object doesn't appear to effect on the 2nd in the series, but does effect the 3rd. (It's a branch of mathematics but we won't get into that...). Anyway, the -EPO related production of said surface ridging is then ....'oozing' for lack of better word, high sfc pressure E; such that at 84 hours this wave simple can't be in CNY because there is rising pressures there. Fascinating. this is why we have GTGs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 And you would be right about that. Most of the time it's either across the cp of sne, or west of the Apps, in NY state. There are reasons for this. This one never had a real chance imo, but I've been wrong before and will be many more times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 The TP development often occurs with lows approaching the Appalachians from the west regardless of whether or not there is a high to the north. Then again there appears to be a "neck" of the high ridging building east across SE Canada from Lk Superior. Thanks Andy...I'm still getting a handle on all the local mesoscale influences around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 I think what Kevin means, is something where the interior has shallow low level e-ne flow. Maybe you get a weak center jump from the Apps into sne, somewhere. Yes..anything that locks in colder flow...i just don't want ripping southeast winds and rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Thanks Andy...I'm still getting a handle on all the local mesoscale influences around here. Welcome Nick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Lets talk about potential vorticity........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 22, 2011 Author Share Posted February 22, 2011 Yes..anything that locks in colder flow...i just don't want ripping southeast winds and rain The one thing against that, is the retreating high and southerly flow out ahead of it. As with any low pressure approaching, you'll have ageostrophic flow, but it makes it tougher when the high retreats like that. However, it's possible as the low approaches, you have a weak CAD signal with e-ne winds across the far interior. This is different than what the GFS is doing, which is dragging a coldfront se, out ahead of the low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 The one thing against that, is the retreating high and southerly flow out ahead of it. As with any low pressure approaching, you'll have ageostrophic flow, but it makes it tougher when the high retreats like that. However, it's possible as the low approaches, you have a weak CAD signal with e-ne winds across the far interior. This is different than what the GFS is doing, which is dragging a coldfront se, out ahead of the low. A NAM like track with a more compact and stronger low would be ideal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 The one thing against that, is the retreating high and southerly flow out ahead of it. As with any low pressure approaching, you'll have ageostrophic flow, but it makes it tougher when the high retreats like that. However, it's possible as the low approaches, you have a weak CAD signal with e-ne winds across the far interior. This is different than what the GFS is doing, which is dragging a coldfront se, out ahead of the low. True but considering that the GFS (and NAM, too for that matter) has an upper forecast flow pattern such that the front will more than likely move ESE-SE'ward. If the flow aloft were parallel to this boundary the front wouldn't move much SE'ward until after the low moved by. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 22, 2011 Author Share Posted February 22, 2011 True but considering that the GFS (and NAM, too for that matter) has an upper forecast flow pattern such that the front will more than likely move ESE-SE'ward. If the flow aloft were parallel to this boundary the front wouldn't move much SE'ward until after the low moved by. Well right, yeah. I'm just explaining to Kevin the differences to his scenario and what the GFS is doing. From what I can tell I don't think the GFS is going to budge much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 22, 2011 Author Share Posted February 22, 2011 Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Also folks - keep in mind while we hem and haw and subversively jab at one another while making it appear friendly ( Lol - oh man), at 60-66hours, it may already be light snowing in the area... This is interesting, there is all kinds of feed-back from that. That breakout lead IB pulse may saturate a 20F DP boundary layer up this way, and that would DEFINITELY offer some additional llv resistance to taking a low W. Not a lot - no, but, if the 500mb v-max translation regroups S of LI like the erstwhile GFS, and now NAM solutions show, than that's when that definition enters concern. Also, another detail popping out is that there is actually more +PP showing up in this NAM solution over priors, and it is representative as an arm extending E from southern Manitoba polar high - I think the -EPO is transatively effecting this system's track at this point. Transitive in the sense that the 1st object doesn't appear to effect on the 2nd in the series, but does effect the 3rd. (It's a branch of mathematics but we won't get into that...). Anyway, the -EPO related production of said surface ridging is then ....'oozing' for lack of better word, high sfc pressure E; such that at 84 hours this wave simple can't be in CNY because there is rising pressures there. Fascinating. Haha... Tip you can say you want summer till the cows come home, but you are definitely rooting for this to be a snow event reading between the lines. That 70F rainer is not what you are looking for, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Wow. Best post - EVER! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 22, 2011 Author Share Posted February 22, 2011 We have a battle royale with the euro and gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 22, 2011 Author Share Posted February 22, 2011 You gotta be sh*tting me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Things going exactly as planned, the king will cave, long live winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 22, 2011 Author Share Posted February 22, 2011 A BM low..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 You gotta be sh*tting me. Lock up 12-16..lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 You gotta be sh*tting me. You're on a roll this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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