Damage In Tolland Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Like I said yesterday this thing grazes messengers right walnut. 19 sunny despite the frigid temps that fluff from yesterday is melting, water pouring off the roof in the morning sun, sign of the times but not tale of the tape, lots of snow inbound over the next 30 days. at 19 degrees??? No way..no f'ing way not at 9:00 in the morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 If it does, this is going to make some of the forecast philosophies at HPC open to re-evaluation - lol It's way further south...instead of central OH it's in eastern KY. Hundreds of miles south in one run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 nam is essentially like the GFS at the surface...it wants to carry SLP out south of SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 nam is essentially like the GFS at the surface...it wants to carry SLP out south of SNE. this is about what I'd envisioned..it doesn't matter for most of SNE but it does for Pete up through CNE/NNE where it would stay snow. Haha....Euro FTL I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 at 19 degrees??? No way..no f'ing way not at 9:00 in the morning well kevin it is, full sun, black shingles, it is what it is. lol, such a doubting thomas you are. As excpected guidance moving to a colder solution, nam says expect snow in sne for friday..........euro will fold like a cheap tent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 22, 2011 Author Share Posted February 22, 2011 A SREF track isn't unreasonable imo. I don't feel that confortable with it, but I could see it happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 lmao euro about to take a major hit at 1pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 this is about what I'd envisioned..it doesn't matter for most of SNE but it does for Pete up through CNE/NNE where it would stay snow. Haha....Euro FTL I think. Your M.O. all winter has been everything ends up NW of guidance....what has changed with this setup? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 A lot of Leon Lett candidates here today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 I would take a miracle to get a snow event in SNE with that 1026mb over Bermuda extending north past 45 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 well kevin it is, full sun, black shingles, it is what it is. lol, such a doubting thomas you are. As excpected guidance moving to a colder solution, nam says expect snow in sne for friday..........euro will fold like a cheap tent. Pics?? The Nam wouldn't be an all snow event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Your M.O. all winter has been everything ends up NW of guidance....what has changed with this setup? euro underestimating the strength of the northern stream Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 this is about what I'd envisioned..it doesn't matter for most of SNE but it does for Pete up through CNE/NNE where it would stay snow. Haha....Euro FTL I think. Sometimes I think from Pete's area N & W of the River should be considered part of CNE (Including me, MPM etc) I often feel like Albany's forecast is more inclusive of NW Ma. than Taunton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Pics?? The Nam wouldn't be an all snow event I never said it would be an all snow event, I said the nam suggests snow in sne, the surface is mild as colder air bleeds into sne, but for the interior its a fairly snowy solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 this is about what I'd envisioned..it doesn't matter for most of SNE but it does for Pete up through CNE/NNE where it would stay snow. Haha....Euro FTL I think. my guess is...and this is just my take on the situation and could be entirely wrong...we will just slowly move toward consensus here over the next few days. but it'll be a funny (annoying) ride getting there. the euro may (probably should) make some southward adjustments...and people will scream that it's caving...and at the same time the GFS will do what it often does and hold out til late in the game. consequently, folks will have visions of 4" to 8"...but ultimately the more progressive and suppressed solutions will come north some and like you said, it won't matter for most of SNE as this thing trucks overhead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Even with such a favorable track it's still rain here verbatim at 78 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Will really favors a triple point with this..so for now that's the way to go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 A lot of Leon Lett candidates here today. LOL, understood. NAM is virtually identical to the GFS which is good news for Pete, Will, hunchie, and the CNE crew. Interesting run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Will really favors a triple point with this..so for now that's the way to go I'm trying to figure out why we get a triple point without a high to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 my guess is...and this is just my take on the situation and could be entirely wrong...we will just slowly move toward consensus here over the next few days. but it'll be a funny (annoying) ride getting there. the euro may (probably should) make some southward adjustments...and people will scream that it's caving...and at the same time the GFS will do what it often does and hold out til late in the game. consequently, folks will have visions of 4" to 8"...but ultimately the more progressive and suppressed solutions will come north some and like you said, it won't matter for most of SNE as this thing trucks overhead. ^ Exactly what my non-meteorologically trained weenie thinks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 The system never really occludes even on the Euro, so it would be more of a center jump than a triple point. Will really favors a triple point with this..so for now that's the way to go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 22, 2011 Author Share Posted February 22, 2011 Will really favors a triple point with this..so for now that's the way to go Or, you could have the SREF track. Same deal for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 22, 2011 Author Share Posted February 22, 2011 The system never really occludes even on the Euro, so it would be more of a center jump than a triple point. Yeah I agree. I think this is more about track, then anything else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 my guess is...and this is just my take on the situation and could be entirely wrong...we will just slowly move toward consensus here over the next few days. but it'll be a funny (annoying) ride getting there. the euro may (probably should) make some southward adjustments...and people will scream that it's caving...and at the same time the GFS will do what it often does and hold out til late in the game. consequently, folks will have visions of 4" to 8"...but ultimately the more progressive and suppressed solutions will come north some and like you said, it won't matter for most of SNE as this thing trucks overhead. Yep NYC to BOS but Kevins 50 s not happening cept for way SE. What I do find interesting on this NAM run is that it is doing what GGEM did, some front running drives the boundary south allowing for a non cutter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 22, 2011 Author Share Posted February 22, 2011 I think what Kevin means, is something where the interior has shallow low level e-ne flow. Maybe you get a weak center jump from the Apps into sne, somewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Or, you could have the SREF track. Same deal for you. scooter where does the ec ens bring it between hours? if you extrapolate the freebies it looks like the op but tough to tell without the full run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 euro has brought me >8 inches of snow every run for the past 6 days. the GFS has brought me 0 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 22, 2011 Author Share Posted February 22, 2011 scooter where does the ec ens bring it between hours? if you extrapolate the freebies it looks like the op but tough to tell without the full run. I only see it every 12 hrs, but it brings it from near Erie PA to Bangor ME in 12 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 I only see it every 12 hrs, but it brings it from near Erie PA to Bangor ME in 12 hrs. thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 I never said it would be an all snow event, I said the nam suggests snow in sne, the surface is mild as colder air bleeds into sne, but for the interior its a fairly snowy solution What's interesting to me is that we have not had a true lakes cutter since 12/12-13-that's an amazing run... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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