CoastalWx Posted February 22, 2011 Author Share Posted February 22, 2011 Will Dr No be Dr UhOh or Dr Told Ya So At one point one of these pos models needs to say "Uncle!" What a tough year to be a pro met I feel like we are going back to that storm in December (I think it was the big MSP blizzard) where people were delusional in having the storm come east, only to have Dr No mafia slap everyone in the face. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 22, 2011 Author Share Posted February 22, 2011 You made a good call with the sleet problems in DC. I still busted on snow. DCA and IAD just were horrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 I feel like we are going back to that storm in December (I think it was the big MSP blizzard) where people were delusional in having the storm come east, only to have Dr No mafia slap everyone in the face. ha. i was thinking about the same thing this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 NAM is stronger and more GFS like with the northern feature approaching MN at 48, but also even slower in the SW. Evolution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 This is the latest from HPC. It explains their thinking clearly and is why I would think warm and wet up to me with some frozen on the front end. Does not look like a snowstorm. It's not just the Euro vs. the GFS....it is the Euro, it's ensembles and 2/3 of the GEFS vs. The GFS, 1/3 of GEFS and the GEM DURING THE DAY 3/4 PORTION OF THE FORECAST...THE DETERMINISTIC ANDENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE-SCALEPATTERN. ALTHOUGH...THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE HANDLING OF THESURFACE LOW TRACKING INTO THE NORTHEAST ON DAY 3...FRIDAY. THELAST FOUR RUNS OF THE ECMWF HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY ON THE DEEPERSIDE OF THE ENVELOPE WHILE THE GFS REMAINS ON THE OPPOSITE SIDE OFTHE SPECTRUM. THIS DEEPER SOLUTION ALSO BRINGS THE SURFACE WAVEFARTHER TO THE WEST AS THE SYSTEM RAPIDLY STRENGTHENS. THE WEAKERLOW PRESENTED BY THE PAST SEVERAL GFS RUNS WILL BE DISMISSED ASNEARLY TWO-THIRDS OF THE 00Z GEFS MEMBERS ARE DEEPER THAN THEOPERATIONAL GFS. CONSEQUENTLY...00Z ECMWF WAS HEAVILY USED FORDAYS 3/4 WITH MINOR CONTRIBUTIONS FROM THE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 This is the latest from HPC. It explains their thinking clearly and is why I would think warm and wet up to me with some frozen on the front end. Does not look like a snowstorm. It's not just the Euro vs. the GFS....it is the Euro, it's ensembles and 2/3 of the GEFS vs. The GFS, 1/3 of GEFS and the GEM DURING THE DAY 3/4 PORTION OF THE FORECAST...THE DETERMINISTIC ANDENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE-SCALEPATTERN. ALTHOUGH...THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE HANDLING OF THESURFACE LOW TRACKING INTO THE NORTHEAST ON DAY 3...FRIDAY. THELAST FOUR RUNS OF THE ECMWF HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY ON THE DEEPERSIDE OF THE ENVELOPE WHILE THE GFS REMAINS ON THE OPPOSITE SIDE OFTHE SPECTRUM. THIS DEEPER SOLUTION ALSO BRINGS THE SURFACE WAVEFARTHER TO THE WEST AS THE SYSTEM RAPIDLY STRENGTHENS. THE WEAKERLOW PRESENTED BY THE PAST SEVERAL GFS RUNS WILL BE DISMISSED ASNEARLY TWO-THIRDS OF THE 00Z GEFS MEMBERS ARE DEEPER THAN THEOPERATIONAL GFS. CONSEQUENTLY...00Z ECMWF WAS HEAVILY USED FORDAYS 3/4 WITH MINOR CONTRIBUTIONS FROM THE yeah the gefs and gem ens are both north of their op runs too. not something you hope for at day 4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Will Dr No be Dr UhOh or Dr Told Ya So At one point one of these pos models needs to say "Uncle!" What a tough year to be a pro met I think Ray's idea of 75/25 Doc/GFS is a good way to go. Gives me a decent chance at snow, too. Go figure! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 NAM is way colder at the surface through 51 hours out in the upper MS Valley...which may be a tip it's shifting the track...could also be slower but we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 00z Euro came north and west of the 12z run Yea, I don't have the luxury of those finer resolution depictions - it just "looked" that way using the freebies... Regardless, the point is still clad - the Euro vs the GFS in an epic battle. Pretty cool - Going to be an interesting 12z run today as that will most decidedly be <4 days away, and perhaps the Euro's last chance to correct before looking pretty pathetic. Or, vice versa... I still don't see any outright means to assume either's veracity; such as Scott just suggested - and I agree - it definitely comes down more to nuanced handling of the larger scale circulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 22, 2011 Author Share Posted February 22, 2011 ha. i was thinking about the same thing this morning. I can't believe the differences. I still think it means jack for most of sne, but people like MPM and Pete..maybe even sw NH, probably care. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SJonesWX Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 I can't believe the differences. I still think it means jack for most of sne, but people like MPM and Pete..maybe even sw NH, probably care. should I care in CNH? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Phil congrats on the OES Wasn't DC only in a WWA for sleet mix anyway, the snow forecasts I saw were considerably north of DC. Euro remains steadfast, not looking good for snow for SNE although HV cutters are a rare breed, could see a NYC to BOS type deal. Nice clipper. Was hoping we made it through this week without heavy rain but looks llike thats not happening. Interior areas and NNE have hope. The long range Euro as usual is different every run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 22, 2011 Author Share Posted February 22, 2011 Yea, I don't have the luxury of those finer resolution depictions - it just "looked" that way using the freebies... Regardless, the point is still clad - the Euro vs the GFS in an epic battle. Pretty cool - Going to be an interesting 12z run today as that will most decidedly be <4 days away, and perhaps the Euro's last chance to correct before looking pretty pathetic. Or, vice versa... I still don't see any outright means to assume either's veracity; such as Scott just suggested - and I agree - it definitely comes down more to nuanced handling of the larger scale circulation. I would love for the GFS to win. I'm tired of Dr No living up to its nickname. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Pretty epic changes in the southern stream. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 22, 2011 Author Share Posted February 22, 2011 should I care in CNH? Well yeah of course..lol. I'm just referring to sne areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 I don't know why we're even hanging onto the colder idea. The euro isn't gonna suddenly reorient the PV and shove everything south.. In fact I'll guarantee the 12z GFS comes way NW today. I fell for this back in Dec..Not this time. I just want some sort of triple point to lock in a colder rain instead of 50's..that to me is feasible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 NAM collapsed way SE towards the GFS through 66 hours. Not surprised one bit, those NW solutions whack it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 NAM collapsed way SE towards the GFS through 66 hours. Not surprised one bit, I'll whack it to that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 I would love for the GFS to win. I'm tired of Dr No living up to its nickname. You prefer Dr. No Thank You? Much cuter. What is the big issue this time? Not 2 systems... Problems ingesting data by one of the two burly models? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 I don't know why we're even hanging onto the colder idea. The euro isn't gonna suddenly reorient the PV and shove everything south.. In fact I'll guarantee the 12z GFS comes way NW today. I fell for this back in Dec..Not this time. I just want some sort of triple point to lock in a colder rain instead of 50's..that to me is feasible I know it's different evolution but we we had no confidence in the boxing day storm as close as 48 hours out. Not that it was a great storm up in GC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 I don't know why we're even hanging onto the colder idea. The euro isn't gonna suddenly reorient the PV and shove everything south.. In fact I'll guarantee the 12z GFS comes way NW today. I fell for this back in Dec..Not this time. I just want some sort of triple point to lock in a colder rain instead of 50's..that to me is feasible Amazing to see you not hugging a colder model... of course it is the GFS, so I should not be surprised. Like mentioned yesterday, soon you will be sharpening mower blades and Messenger will be piling sand up along his driveway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 NAM looks like it might come in a bit colder/further south... As messenger and other alluded to...that confluence south of Hudson Bay is key. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 I don't know why we're even hanging onto the colder idea. The euro isn't gonna suddenly reorient the PV and shove everything south.. In fact I'll guarantee the 12z GFS comes way NW today. I fell for this back in Dec..Not this time. I just want some sort of triple point to lock in a colder rain instead of 50's..that to me is feasible You're probably right - but, who is holding onto colder solutions? The point here is ... keeping an open mind and not discounting those solutions, objectively. That said, the Euro is going to beat the GFS over the long haul the majority of times. We know this ... But, as was pointed out a while ago, at least once this winter the Euro busted really badly on an event that really clocked the area with 12" + snow results, when the Euro was all over the place as close to 72 hours out. It might have even been that 12/26/2010 storm? Anyway, this shows that it has not been right every time. Also, the pattern et al this years has been inherently problematic for guidance - seeing as that backdrop is still painted behind the players on the stage with this thing, no model deserves free-pass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Like I said yesterday this thing grazes messengers right walnut. 19 sunny despite the frigid temps that fluff from yesterday is melting, water pouring off the roof in the morning sun, sign of the times but not tale of the tape, lots of snow inbound over the next 30 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 I can't believe the differences. I still think it means jack for most of sne, but people like MPM and Pete..maybe even sw NH, probably care. yeah that's pretty much my take on this as well. maybe instead of cutting from NE OH to C NYS it's a slightly further SE than that or something...maybe increases the chances for some quick icing or mixing for N MA? i also don't see much hope for a triple point or secondary. i just don't see this going south of SNE. we were saved - and eventually screwed - by the PV this weekend because it was way way way SE. in this case, the northern stream energy is north of the lakes and the trough is actually trying to lift out and up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 NAM looks like it might come in a bit colder/further south... As messenger and other alluded to...that confluence south of Hudson Bay is key. If it does, this is going to make some of the forecast philosophies at HPC open to re-evaluation - lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 You guys should be happy with these analogs, take a look at the 120hr over the east, hit after hit for New England. http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/thumbnails.php?reg=EAST&model=GFS212&fhr=120&flg=new&map=COSN&sort=FINAL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 You're probably right - but, who is holding onto colder solutions? The point here is ... keeping an open mind and not discounting those solutions, objectively. That said, the Euro is going to beat the GFS over the long haul the majority of times. We know this ... But, as was pointed out a while ago, at least once this winter the Euro busted really badly on an event that really clocked the area with 12" + snow results, when the Euro was all over the place as close to 72 hours out. It might have even been that 12/26/2010 storm? Anyway, this shows that it has not been right every time. Also, the pattern et al this years has been inherently problematic for guidance - seeing as that backdrop is still painted behind the players on the stage with this thing, no model deserves free-pass. I think in the end it'll end up with a weak secondary that tracks over the canal or something that would really just serve to lock in a colder rain..esp with colder SST's..and an E/NE flow. I don't know if I buy 55-60 and rain with screaming sou easterlies that the euro is selling..but I just don't see this trending so cold that SNE sees much more than a little front end snow/sleet. I'm glad we have the Sunday clipper to track..otherwise folks would be sucking tailpipes..and laying down on train tracks today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Just a slight adjustment south...went from the middle IL/OH border to KY in one main run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 22, 2011 Author Share Posted February 22, 2011 You prefer Dr. No Thank You? Much cuter. What is the big issue this time? Not 2 systems... Problems ingesting data by one of the two burly models? Well the models (probably related to the data initialization scheme) are handling the PV and srn stream system, differently. The thing is, I could see both biases at play here. The GFS being too progressive and too strong with that PV, and the euro amping up things too much. However, both models are stubborn, but we've seen it before....the GFS caving in eventually. I could also see some sort of a compromise with the low moving over sne..maybe giving nw areas wintry precip. But, given the differences at play here, I can't really rule anything out..but I don't feel good about my area, right now. Like John said...12z should be big today. This is why we need the -NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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