Damage In Tolland Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 steve might want to get his sandbags in order this week and secure all the tree tops. GGEM/GFS FTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Let's take guesses as to when either/both models start caving toward each other. Will it be the GFS or EC that caves (or both)? When will this shift (or shifts) become manifest? Step right up folks....place your bets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 GGEM/GFS FTW haha. yeah i don't think that's a good combo this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 50's and rain even ino NNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 50's and rain even ino NNE it's a good thing the system is progressive. euro has some pretty decent hvy rain signals but the storm is in/out relatively quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 -2/-7, yet another sub-zero night. Go Go Go GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 50's and rain even ino NNE where? GYX talks about the euro being frozen to rain and the gfs frozen. is the euro a torch up here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 EURO back to the N....passes just N of Concord, NH-portland, ME lol Almost as far N as last night's 00z. No ice threat on this run.....maybe elevated valleys in GC, like Pete......but it would be brief. I'll be in the eye! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Let's take guesses as to when either/both models start caving toward each other. Will it be the GFS or EC that caves (or both)? When will this shift (or shifts) become manifest? Step right up folks....place your bets. ECEN looks colder than the op run to me at least for VT and interior ENY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 ECEN looks colder than the op run to me at least for VT and interior ENY You made my morning with that Andy. Now I can focus on work. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Dude..most of SNe has had 20+ inches of snow in Feb which is above normal..There's been continuous deep snowcover all month..and the month is below normal temp wise. It has been a cold and a snowy month. Put that in your buoy and float away Wonderfully caustic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Like Will said yesterday..let's just get the triple point under SNE..certainly possible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Albany starting to lean a little warmer with fridays storm. .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... FOR FRIDAY...AMAZING HOW EACH SET OF LONG RANGE GUIDANCE HAS NOT BUDGED FROM RUN TO RUN OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS...WITH ONE SET OF GUIDANCE COOLER...WITH MIXED PRECIPITATION...AND ANOTHER SET OF GUIDANCE WARMER...WITH SOME CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IN SOUTHERN AREAS. HOWEVER...THE LOOKING AT THE ENSEMBLES FOR THE COOLER GUIDANCE...THE MEAN IS ACTUALLY WARMER THAN THE OPERATIONAL RUN...WITH A CONSIDERABLE NUMBER OF MEMBERS WARMER THAN THE OPERATIONAL RUN. THE BLAZING LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY JET WOULD IMPLY WARMER AIR EXTENDING FURTHER NORTH...BUT CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION COULD MODIFY SURFACE TEMPERATURES...KEEPING SURFACE TEMPERATURES RELATIVELY COOLER. BASED ON SURROUNDING OFFICES...LEANING TOWARD COOLER SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND MIXED PRECIPITATION IN THE MORNING. FRIDAY AFTERNOON...ANY SNOW OR MIXED PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE CONFINED TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON. TIGHTENING PROGRESSIVE THERMAL GRADIENT AND VERY STRONG FRONTOGENESIS SHOULD SUPPORT SHOWERY PRECIPITATION...POSSIBLY CONVECTIVE IN SOUTHERN AREAS. HIGHS IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. BASED ON BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES IN THE THERMAL RIDGE...ANY MIXING COULD ALLOW FOR HIGHS INTO THE 50S IN SOME AREAS...IF THE WARMER GUIDANCE VERIFIES. ALL PRECIPITATION TRANSITIONS TO SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT COLD ADVECTION DOES NOT LOOK TOO STRONG. LOWS IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S...SOME SINGLE NUMBERS IN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 ECEN looks colder than the op run to me at least for VT and interior ENY From Aly: are they talking about gfs or ec ensembles? FOR FRIDAY...AMAZING HOW EACH SET OF LONG RANGE GUIDANCE HAS NOTBUDGED FROM RUN TO RUN OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS...WITH ONE SET OFGUIDANCE COOLER...WITH MIXED PRECIPITATION...AND ANOTHER SET OFGUIDANCE WARMER...WITH SOME CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IN SOUTHERN AREAS.HOWEVER...THE LOOKING AT THE ENSEMBLES FOR THE COOLER GUIDANCE...THEMEAN IS ACTUALLY WARMER THAN THE OPERATIONAL RUN...WITH ACONSIDERABLE NUMBER OF MEMBERS WARMER THAN THE OPERATIONAL RUN. THEBLAZING LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY JET WOULD IMPLY WARMER AIR EXTENDINGFURTHER NORTH...BUT CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION COULD MODIFY SURFACETEMPERATURES...KEEPING SURFACE TEMPERATURES RELATIVELY COOLER. What so the teleconnections imply? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 6z GFS even futher south and colder than 0z keeps much of the region almost all snow lol 6z NAM looks like it runs to the OV then redevelops around NYC and would move northeast over boston - maybe keep it mix/snow in GC on north into parts of CNE and NNE? Hmm.. NOGAPs showing a cutter for this thing, strong lean towards the warm camp.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Everything would have to go just right to stay all frozen even into CNE/NNE because we will unfortunately have a storm that is moving into decaying cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 HPC has been discounting the GFS for what, 3 days? They aren't always right but I'd go towards the EC on this one. Perhaps it will clean up my dirty snow for the next events Sunday and Mon night-Tues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Messenger..hopefully your kids are getting healthy. Ray....I have a chance of squeaking in should Friday's system fail (looking more likely) with Sunday.....something .like 3.6 inches in your by. Cold morning. Sore from taking a spill yesterday but overall intact. Ugh...work looms... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 From Aly: are they talking about gfs or ec ensembles? FOR FRIDAY...AMAZING HOW EACH SET OF LONG RANGE GUIDANCE HAS NOTBUDGED FROM RUN TO RUN OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS...WITH ONE SET OFGUIDANCE COOLER...WITH MIXED PRECIPITATION...AND ANOTHER SET OFGUIDANCE WARMER...WITH SOME CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IN SOUTHERN AREAS.HOWEVER...THE LOOKING AT THE ENSEMBLES FOR THE COOLER GUIDANCE...THEMEAN IS ACTUALLY WARMER THAN THE OPERATIONAL RUN...WITH ACONSIDERABLE NUMBER OF MEMBERS WARMER THAN THE OPERATIONAL RUN. THEBLAZING LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY JET WOULD IMPLY WARMER AIR EXTENDINGFURTHER NORTH...BUT CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION COULD MODIFY SURFACETEMPERATURES...KEEPING SURFACE TEMPERATURES RELATIVELY COOLER. What so the teleconnections imply? I haven't a clue as to what ensembles they are referring too TBH. I would assume GEFS. Also IMO the NAM is not like the EC if anything its more towards the OPS GFS on the thermal fields. Thinking colder scenario is the way to go on this system NOT warmer. Yes they'll be some mix up thru WMA and SENY probably to Albany even but nw thru N ot here I think snow will be the rule. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 With no blocking and a strongly -EPO..there's no reason why this shouldn't cut well west..hopefully it doesn't.but the cold models have no reason to be that cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Some decent snow falling right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 22, 2011 Author Share Posted February 22, 2011 With no blocking and a strongly -EPO..there's no reason why this shouldn't cut well west..hopefully it doesn't.but the cold models have no reason to be that cold Are you using the new definition of the EPO?? Because the one we've all come to know, would argue against it. I'm still shocked at the model differences. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Don't know if eck did the long term for up here but they kept it all frozen here in the interior for now. Maybe I'll see some snow Friday. Cold this am with the inversion. Neg 8F here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 22, 2011 Author Share Posted February 22, 2011 Don't know if eck did the long term for up here but they kept it all frozen here in the interior for now. Maybe I'll see some snow Friday. Cold this am with the inversion. Neg 8F here. I can see that. Maybe a change to ZR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 I can see that. Maybe a change to ZR. How much is this system looking like? 2 to 4, 4 to 8? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 22, 2011 Author Share Posted February 22, 2011 I think this goes across sne somewhere, but it's pretty hard to ignore the euro and ensembles right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 With no blocking and a strongly -EPO..there's no reason why this shouldn't cut well west..hopefully it doesn't.but the cold models have no reason to be that cold FWIIW look at HPC final progs for Friday (from yesterday afternoon's data) and look at this morning's prelim for the same day. They have the low farther south this morning compared to yesterday. TBH I think the 2ndary or TP low will be one of the critical factors in how this system evolves. Will it be a case of not too much development for the 2ndary while the primary holds its own or will the two lows share energetics, or will the 2ndary become dominant? Not sure right now but I would tend to think scenario 2 may be the solution. However even a weak 2ndary would tend to keep ageo flow over the interior parts of NY and NE from NE or E. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 With no blocking and a strongly -EPO..there's no reason why this shouldn't cut well west..hopefully it doesn't.but the cold models have no reason to be that cold Why would the epo make it cut? Did you mean pna? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 How much is this system looking like? 2 to 4, 4 to 8? I posted yesterday afternoons AFD, He had done that one, Does not look like this AM was his.. .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON SEVERAL QUIET DAYS AS SHORT WAVE RIDGE SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE AREA. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA WITH TEMPERATURES INITIALLY BELOW NORMAL. BY MIDWEEK...AIRMASS BEGINS TO MODERATE AND DEVELOPING RETURN FLOW AROUND HIGH PUSHES TEMPERATURES TO AT OR ABOVE NORMAL. BY FRIDAY...MODELS HAVE SERIOUS DIFFERENCES ON EVOLUTION OF NEXT STORM SYSTEM AS WELL AS PRECIPITATION TYPE. GFS/GEM DRIVE A NORTHERN STREAM IMPULSE AND COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA...FOLLOWED BY A SOUTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE THAT PUTS THE FORECAST AREA ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE STORM TRACK. ECMWF IS MUCH WARMER AND SUPPORTS A STRONG SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WITH A TRACK THAT SUGGESTS A FROZEN TO LIQUID TRANSITION FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE WITH A COMPROMISE OF THE MODEL SUITE AND GO WITH A MIX ALONG THE COAST AND PREDOMINATELY A FROZEN EVENT INLAND FOR THIS EVENT. HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS THIS SYSTEM FOR SATURDAY. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL RACE EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 22, 2011 Author Share Posted February 22, 2011 How much is this system looking like? 2 to 4, 4 to 8? Depends on the model. Euro would probably only be a couple of inches and then ZR and even RA. GFS is too far south for you with 2-4 or 3-5. The GFS ensembles were a good snow for you..maybe like 4-8 or something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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