CoastalWx Posted February 22, 2011 Author Share Posted February 22, 2011 OES for Phil right now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 On 2/22/2011 at 12:49 PM, CoastalWx said: OES for Phil right now? Yeah ripping down pretty good actually. Everything covered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 On 2/22/2011 at 12:49 PM, CoastalWx said: OES for Phil right now? Here too. So what did the euro show, site isn't working right for me? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 On 2/22/2011 at 12:56 PM, CapeCodWeather.net said: Yeah ripping down pretty good actually. Everything covered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 22, 2011 Author Share Posted February 22, 2011 On 2/22/2011 at 12:57 PM, messenger said: Here too. So what did the euro show, site isn't working right for me? It was warm for Friday for everyone. It also had a weak clipper for Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 22, 2011 Author Share Posted February 22, 2011 Man big screw job for DC area and to the south, last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 On 2/22/2011 at 12:58 PM, weathafella said: Congrats, Capers! 11.1/-2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 On 2/22/2011 at 12:22 PM, Wx4cast said: I haven't a clue as to what ensembles they are referring too TBH. I would assume GEFS. Also IMO the NAM is not like the EC if anything its more towards the OPS GFS on the thermal fields. Thinking colder scenario is the way to go on this system NOT warmer. Yes they'll be some mix up thru WMA and SENY probably to Albany even but nw thru N ot here I think snow will be the rule. Thanks for the responses Andy and glad you are feeling that way. If it turns out colder and then we get 2 more light-moderate events after Friday, those of us in mine and your areas might be smiling by Tuesday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 22, 2011 Author Share Posted February 22, 2011 On 2/22/2011 at 1:07 PM, mahk_webstah said: Thanks for the responses Andy and glad you are feeling that way. If it turns out colder and then we get 2 more light-moderate events after Friday, those of us in mine and your areas might be smiling by Tuesday night. You definitely should keep an eye out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 On 2/22/2011 at 1:00 PM, CoastalWx said: It was warm for Friday for everyone. It also had a weak clipper for Sunday. thanks. OES flurries here I'm just missing, best stuff easily visible over the water to my east with sheets of snow falling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 On 2/22/2011 at 1:04 PM, CoastalWx said: Man big screw job for DC area and to the south, last night. Heavy heavy schadenfreude. Not for me, of course. I love the DC group. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 On 2/22/2011 at 12:47 PM, CoastalWx said: Depends on the model. Euro would probably only be a couple of inches and then ZR and even RA. GFS is too far south for you with 2-4 or 3-5. The GFS ensembles were a good snow for you..maybe like 4-8 or something. Tkx scooter Gonna head over to jackson today for some xc skiing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 22, 2011 Author Share Posted February 22, 2011 On 2/22/2011 at 1:11 PM, MaineJayhawk said: Heavy heavy schadenfreude. Not for me, of course. I love the DC group. North did fine, but DCA and IAD got less then 1". Definitely less that I thought, and I was conservative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 On 2/22/2011 at 1:16 PM, CoastalWx said: North did fine, but DCA and IAD got less then 1". Definitely less that I thought, and I was conservative. Yeah, I just skimmed the thread after you mentioned it. Gotta be a b*tch being a snow lover and living in that part of the country. Feast or famine, with famine winning more often than not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Snowing bettter than it did most of yesterday now. Not too shabby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jen_CentralMass_Wx Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 On 2/22/2011 at 4:43 AM, Mikehobbyst said: Worrying about having enough snow to make Frosty or watching him melt the next day is so trivial in the scheme of life. Snow is just frozen water in an array of ice crystal formations that are just part of nature. Snow causes so much excitement and pandemonium as if turd balls were falling from the sky. Think about it. that's a whole lot of turds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 22, 2011 Author Share Posted February 22, 2011 Epic battle continues on the ensembles. That NPAC ridge aligns more sw to ne and pokes into the North Pole. That's usually a good delivery of cold into the nrn tier. Big positively tilted trough continues in the Pac NW, but also some very weak ridging over the sw. The + AO/NAO leads to a se ridge and Atlantic ridge which will battle to try to keep storms from going out underneath us. Def a good pattern for the Midwest and potentially NNE, but that's not to say it won't be good here. I actually think it looks good overall, but we could have storms that taint or rain for some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 New 09z SREFs look to be centered somewhere near Framingham, MA with a sub-1000mb low pressure at 84 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 On 2/22/2011 at 1:47 PM, OSUmetstud said: New 09z SREFs look to be centered somewhere near Framingham, MA with a sub-1000mb low pressure at 84 hours. Which means we can safely rule out a track near framingham if past performance at this range is any guide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Wah-ha-hoow - this could be an epic loss for Dr No... The fact that it has hedged E about 50-100 mi per run across the last 2 cycles, while the GFS is like ...within a quantom tollerance identical regarding Friday's system, is starting to look bad for the doc. I recall mentioning to Ray that the ECM, albeit stellar over the long haul, did pull down its pants and drop a big turd of an outlook regarding at least one of those big deal storms during the 45 day mega stretch. It is not infallible. We'll see, but the 00z incredible hyper-accurate GGEM () was a virtual carbon copy of the GFS. What an increble year of "make a call - RIGHT NOW AZZHOLE", insistance by the pattern at large. Really ...everything physically imaginable to make prognostics less certain has been plaguing the air ways since Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 On 2/22/2011 at 1:48 PM, Typhoon Tip said: Wah-ha-hoow - this could be an epic loss for Dr No... The fact that it has hedged E about 50-100 mi per run across the last 2 cycles, while the GFS is like ...within a quantom tollerance identical regarding Friday's system, is starting to look bad for the doc. I recall mentioning to Ray that the ECM, albeit stellar over the long haul, did pull down its pants and drop a big turd of an outlook regarding at least one of those big deal storms during the 45 day mega stretch. It is not infallible. We'll see, but the 00z incredible hyper-accurate GGEM () was a virtual carbon copy of the GFS. What an increble year of "make a call - RIGHT NOW AZZHOLE", insistance by the pattern at large. Really ...everything physically imaginable to make prognostics less certain has been plaguing the air ways since Christmas. 00z Euro came north and west of the 12z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 On 2/22/2011 at 1:47 PM, OSUmetstud said: New 09z SREFs look to be centered somewhere near Framingham, MA with a sub-1000mb low pressure at 84 hours. Looks centered nearer to Hopkinton to me. Gonna be too warm for many. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 On 2/22/2011 at 12:46 PM, weathafella said: Why would the epo make it cut? Did you mean pna? LOL..woops..yeah..I was on my way out the door with screaming kids this morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Euro's got a nice 3-6 event for Sunday..while the GFS has a mix Lol..do they ever agree? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 On 2/22/2011 at 1:48 PM, Typhoon Tip said: Wah-ha-hoow - this could be an epic loss for Dr No... The fact that it has hedged E about 50-100 mi per run across the last 2 cycles, while the GFS is like ...within a quantom tollerance identical regarding Friday's system, is starting to look bad for the doc. I recall mentioning to Ray that the ECM, albeit stellar over the long haul, did pull down its pants and drop a big turd of an outlook regarding at least one of those big deal storms during the 45 day mega stretch. It is not infallible. We'll see, but the 00z incredible hyper-accurate GGEM () was a virtual carbon copy of the GFS. What an increble year of "make a call - RIGHT NOW AZZHOLE", insistance by the pattern at large. Really ...everything physically imaginable to make prognostics less certain has been plaguing the air ways since Christmas. i don't know...it looked relatively similar...12z vs 00z. 12z looked like KCAK to KALB (sort of strung out with two centers - one near BGM one near ALB) 00z looked like KCAK to KALB (sort of strung out going from BGM to ALB - maybe slightly west of that) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 22, 2011 Author Share Posted February 22, 2011 The bigger difference that see, is how the euro handles the PV to the north. The GFS and Canadian are further se and therefore flatten out the flow over the east. The euro is further nw with the PV and allows for a low to torch sne. This is a battle we may face through March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Will Dr No be Dr UhOh or Dr Told Ya So At one point one of these pos models needs to say "Uncle!" What a tough year to be a pro met Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 On 2/22/2011 at 1:59 PM, MaineJayhawk said: Looks centered nearer to Hopkinton to me. Gonna be too warm for many. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 On 2/22/2011 at 1:04 PM, CoastalWx said: Man big screw job for DC area and to the south, last night. You made a good call with the sleet problems in DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 On 2/22/2011 at 2:15 PM, HubbDave said: Will Dr No be Dr UhOh or Dr Told Ya So At one point one of these pos models needs to say "Uncle!" What a tough year to be a pro met However, as just an observer/fan I can't help but find joy in the occasional inability of the models to handle the complex dynamics of our atmosphere. Nature FTW! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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