CoastalWx Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Well I figured we could make a thread about going forward. Everyone is hoping for a great March because lets face it...the last several have been awful. So what do we have on tap? Well lets start with the analogs. I think it looks like a classic Nina pattern. Strong NPAC ridging into the north Pole helping to tank the EPO. Weak -NAO ridging. Ice cold Canada, and the se ridge persisting. These analogs were not all that hot but there were some good years in there. Here are the GFS ensembles, below notice the ridging in the Pacific. That continues to really hang tough and shows no signs of going anywhere. Also note how low the heights are in Canada. Canada will be an extremely cold place it seems for a good chunk of the month. Also note the ridging over the North Pole and east of Greenland. The euro ensembles also have weak -NAO ridging in the same area. We may need that because lurking south of SNE is the se ridge. The good news is that we really don't need a strong -NAO, but a -NAO would help suppress the jet stream to the south. It's ok if we can keep the PV centered over Canada, in between the ridges...almost like a pinball effect. Having Canada cold at least keeps the source region cold and within reach if need be. The hope is to have the -EPO help force the PV at least into a position where it can keep the jet south over the southeast US. That can be risky as we all know..especially with a -PNA which leads me to my next section. So what about the PNA? Well that has been raging negative lately as we all know. There are signs that it will rise in the 11-15 day, and the euro ensembles do show this. They bring the trough back into the Gulf of Alaska and we start to see some ridging out west. That would sure help alleviate any cutters, but it's not particularly positive, so the chance remains. Now as far as the MJO goes, it seems to be in the circle of death right now, but there are two tropical systems in the Indonesia area and just west of Australia right now. The models really aren't offering much help from it, which means I don't see a mechanism to really change the pattern that we have. That doesn't mean we can't see the NAO go negative or the PNA positive, but it means we should keep the overall pattern that we have...for a while anyways. So I figured I start it off...hopefully it brings luck..lol. Personally, I'm not quite on the epic train for March, but I do like what I see. I think the possibility is there to cash in, but nothing concrete just yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Nice write up and easy to understand for those trying to learn. So basically, Heavy snow is on the way, nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 20, 2011 Author Share Posted February 20, 2011 Nice write up and easy to understand for those trying to learn. So basically, Heavy snow is on the way, nice. LOL, well lets not get too carried away, but the pattern isn't ugly. It's still possible that NNE cashes in, and we may not have the best month. Hopefully not, but I think Dryslot is losing it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Nice write up and easy to understand for those trying to learn. So basically, Heavy snow is on the way, nice. LOL. How the heck did you get that from his post? I took away that he is optimistic for a good March, but the analogs and other signals (PNA, MJO, NAO) would argue for a roller-coaster ride with equal chances snow and lakes cutters. Maybe I read that wrong though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 LOL, well lets not get too carried away, but the pattern isn't ugly. It's still possible that NNE cashes in, and we may not have the best month. Hopefully not, but I think Dryslot is losing it. Really, Did i give that impression?...lol, I like the looks of things going forward here, Long range GFS shows quite a few chances in the next 15 days if we can keep things east but i'm sure we have not seen our last cutter, I just hope we have not seen our last big snow storm, Nice write up scott, You outlined the upcoming pattern very well.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 LOL. How the heck did you get that from his post? I took away that he is optimistic for a good March, but the analogs and other signals (PNA, MJO, NAO) would argue for a roller-coaster ride with equal chances snow and lakes cutters. Maybe I read that wrong though. Haha, it was supposed to be a joke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Thanks for the first post, Scott. Again, you have a way of making it accesible to those trying to learn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 21, 2011 Author Share Posted February 21, 2011 Well hopefully we can chat this up after tomorrow. I'm really hoping for a good ending to winter. I don't want to limp into drizzle disaster season with that empty feeling that I had last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 21, 2011 Author Share Posted February 21, 2011 Well now that this whopper of a storm is getting over with, looking ahead...Ray's bet might not be all that bad..lol. Pretty strong -PNA and se ridge are going to keep lows hugging the east it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 6z GFS keeps the Friday system all frozen. Actually passes too far south for a good portion of New England. That strong Plains high trying to ridge into Quebec seems to be exerting an influence on the storm. We do have a brutal cold air source to our north with widespread -30C 850s over Quebec, so we can't totally rule that storm out regardless of what ECM shows, which has been way too warm with many systems this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 All we can do is pray pray pray the Euro is wrong for the next 10 days with about 3 rainstorms. Hopefully it's ensembles show a more favorable pattern because that run last night was one of the worst we've seen since last summer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 21, 2011 Author Share Posted February 21, 2011 6z GFS keeps the Friday system all frozen. Actually passes too far south for a good portion of New England. That strong Plains high trying to ridge into Quebec seems to be exerting an influence on the storm. We do have a brutal cold air source to our north with widespread -30C 850s over Quebec, so we can't totally rule that storm out regardless of what ECM shows, which has been way too warm with many systems this winter. I just saw that...that would be amazing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 I just saw that...that would be amazing. Understatement of the season...I get .75" QPF in one frame, all snow. And more before and after as well, very impressive. Probably won't verify but the GFS definitely is taking a colder tack on the next 10 days than the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 21, 2011 Author Share Posted February 21, 2011 All we can do is pray pray pray the Euro is wrong for the next 10 days with about 3 rainstorms. Hopefully it's ensembles show a more favorable pattern because that run last night was one of the worst we've seen since last summer Well going into next weekend and into very early next week, I don't see a favorable snowy pattern. I'm also not buying the 06z GFS either for the end of next week. It's possible the storm on Sunday or Monday could be some sort of frozen or mix, but I'm not terribly impressed for now. There is still some time for this to change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Well going into next weekend and into very early next week, I don't see a favorable snowy pattern. I'm also not buying the 06z GFS either for the end of next week. It's possible the storm on Sunday or Monday could be some sort of frozen or mix, but I'm not terribly impressed for now. There is still some time for this to change. I should have waited and made the bet with you about snow loss for the torching 55 degree cutter on Friday..People keep saying that won't happen, but that's what the op Euro has been insistant on showing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 21, 2011 Author Share Posted February 21, 2011 I should have waited and made the bet with you about snow loss for the torching 55 degree cutter on Friday..People keep saying that won't happen, but that's what the op Euro has been insistant on showing I suppose I could see something where the low comes closer to sne, but looks like crap and has looked like crap for 10 days. Hopefully the one later in the weekend works out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 My prediction -- highlights -- Blizzard on March 6-7, strong nor'easter coastal rain inland snow March 20-21. Otherwise rather cold and blocked due to persistent Quebec PV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 My prediction -- highlights -- Blizzard on March 6-7, strong nor'easter coastal rain inland snow March 20-21. Otherwise rather cold and blocked due to persistent Quebec PV. So there is a large pattern change to cause these things for the northeast? When does that happen? Not many of the MR range models have a persistent Quebec PV, do they? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Scott, thanks for the write up.Nice read. Glad you took the time to put it together. March is going to pay dividends, at least here in the elevated interior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 My prediction -- highlights -- Blizzard on March 6-7, strong nor'easter coastal rain inland snow March 20-21. Otherwise rather cold and blocked due to persistent Quebec PV. Snow removed from teh discussion for a moment--hopefully we'll have conditions for a good sugaring season. Last year's was among the worst in history. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 21, 2011 Author Share Posted February 21, 2011 The pattern going into March still looks ok. It reminds me of this composite. This is the positive phase of the WPO. Basically put oranges where we have blues in that map...and blues where we have oranges in that map and you have the negative phase of the WPO. That seems to be in the cards. Ensembles such as the GFS and Euro also have a ridge pushing into the North Pole from AK and try to turn the PNA +. All those are good for sne. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 6z GFS keeps the Friday system all frozen. Actually passes too far south for a good portion of New England. That strong Plains high trying to ridge into Quebec seems to be exerting an influence on the storm. We do have a brutal cold air source to our north with widespread -30C 850s over Quebec, so we can't totally rule that storm out regardless of what ECM shows, which has been way too warm with many systems this winter. it just shears out the energy ejecting from the southwest and lets the northern stream dominate the pattern over the eastern conus...shunting everything south and not really caring about the se ridge - not entirely unlike what we are dealing with in today's deal. given what just transpired, you probably have to weigh the gfs in, but my guess is it won't have enough weight to matter much for sne. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 21, 2011 Author Share Posted February 21, 2011 Euro ensembles have a real cold look to them. Big sprawling high coming in from the Plains of Canada, being fueled by the pattern I described earlier. Lets hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Euro ensembles have a real cold look to them. Big sprawling high coming in from the Plains of Canada, being fueled by the pattern I described earlier. Lets hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 21, 2011 Author Share Posted February 21, 2011 We need to pray, just to make it today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Euro ensembles have a real cold look to them. Big sprawling high coming in from the Plains of Canada, being fueled by the pattern I described earlier. Lets hope. Yeah there's bitter anomalies across all of Canada so you have to watch out for the banana high especially if the system exits around NYC/NJ latitude. There's a 1056mb high in Western Canada pumping in some incredibly cold air so we should see a very dynamic system that could present everything from t-storms in the warm sector to heavy snow and potentially icing in New England. I think the pattern going forward basically becomes a battle between the massive block over the Bering Strait/Alaska trying to force the storm track southward and the SE ridge causing shortwaves to cut. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 it just shears out the energy ejecting from the southwest and lets the northern stream dominate the pattern over the eastern conus...shunting everything south and not really caring about the se ridge - not entirely unlike what we are dealing with in today's deal. given what just transpired, you probably have to weigh the gfs in, but my guess is it won't have enough weight to matter much for sne. just some slight differences between the ec and gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 I think we all know to take the 6z gfs for Friday. Go snow or go home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 just some slight differences between the ec and gfs and that's 00z ec vs 00z gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 21, 2011 Author Share Posted February 21, 2011 Yeah there's bitter anomalies across all of Canada so you have to watch out for the banana high especially if the system exits around NYC/NJ latitude. There's a 1056mb high in Western Canada pumping in some incredibly cold air so we should see a very dynamic system that could present everything from t-storms in the warm sector to heavy snow and potentially icing in New England. I think the pattern going forward basically becomes a battle between the massive block over the Bering Strait/Alaska trying to force the storm track southward and the SE ridge causing shortwaves to cut. I definitely like seeing the -PNA relax some. We are getting into the time of year, where storms are becoming more robust with warmth and moisture, so a se ridge is the last thing we need. Also, the -NAO eventually means different things than if it occurred in January, so I like seeing the Pacific try to help out. Hopefully the pattern doesn't fall apart as we get closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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