goknights Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 thinkingis that some forecasts are going to bust big in the wisconsin area How so? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MadTown Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 i rhink foi Madison area there is no way we see .5" of ice...thinkin a quick 2 " of snow this morning the ice till 11 or so then above freezing and dry slot till this evening. maybe a little freezing drizzleand 1" overnight to tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goknights Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Could be true.... but I would let the storm fully develop before making that call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MadTown Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 true, but just a feeling. normally when freezing rain is forcasted for here it is way over done. but........i saw u mention looks like its headed further south? i would take a couple mor einchec over ice if thats the case Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maumee Bay Turf Center Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Interestingly enough, NWS Cleveland is calling for 3-6" of snow and sleet along the MI/OH border. just noticed that as well...had to call all of my plow drivers and tell them to be ready for anything....every met in toledo said rain last night at 11 and again today at 5am...geuss it will be close - good luck to the rest of you guys north west and east...and of course you guys down south...i see 6z nam should that second piecve of energy for tues a bit north again... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMidwest Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 We still haven't seen the full wrap up of this storm yet. Also, keep in mind during some events the so-called "dry slot" area can fill in with convective adiabatic instability itself. The NW comma head will be another thing to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevlon62 Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Was hoping to roll out of bed at some point early this morning to some nice aggregates and perhaps some thunder. Looks like the best action and convection has remained west. Nice summary of the lightning data here, with an option on the top menu to go to last 60 minutes. Dry air must have been a factor, but not a flake in these parts. As I rolled out of bed ten minutes ago, as if on cue, there was a brief shot of sleet, but that has switched over to -ZR, with a visible glaze on the deck. Sidewalk is not quite glazed over yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 I just checked my forecast again. DTX is calling fo snow/sleet this afternoon with 1-3", then an additional 1-2" with a mix of Snow, Freezing Rain and Sleet. Total is 2-5" of snow & sleet. Those amounts are up from yesterday, but they're calling for the same amount of ice (0.2"-0.4"). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 SPC's general thunder outlook was expanded throughout all of Wisconsin, Lower Michigan and Southern Minnesota. Wow at this. Talk about them going gangbusters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goknights Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 SN+ at the start Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 I just checked my forecast again. DTX is calling fo snow/sleet this afternoon with 1-3", then an additional 1-2" with a mix of Snow, Freezing Rain and Sleet. Total is 2-5" of snow & sleet. Those amounts are up from yesterday, but they're calling for the same amount of ice (0.2"-0.4"). They are going to bust low I think, all models except the 6z NAM showing at least 1.00 qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 NAM's weaker, but it's slightly warmer placement is about the same. Hmmm... EDIT: Make that a very tiny hair warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WisTodd Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 SN+ at the start Good for you, thanks for the report. I love it when a storm starts up with a bang. Hate the waiting, as nearly all of us do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 The 12z NAM did initialize a tad too warm, at least at 850mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMidwest Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Snow Spitting in Downtown LAX now, ZR in Decorah,IA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Gfs Nam and rgem pretty much the same with 1-1.25 along 94 96 in west Michigan and m59 further east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Second wave may be headed NW too for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Gfs Nam and rgem pretty much the same with 1-1.25 along 94 96 in west Michigan and m59 further east. Not this run. I am screwed if this ends up all ice. NAM has 1.25+ just for the next 24hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMidwest Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Preston,MN TSSN... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Not this run. I am screwed if this ends up all ice. NAM has 1.25+ just for the next 24hrs. Looks like 1.50+ possible in west Michigan. Also with the low weaker it allows the second storm to be further NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toronto4 Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 I'll be away for most of the day, but based on the latest 12z NAM and other model trends, I'm going to downgrade my prelim snowfall amounts of 4-6" for Toronto to 2-4". That's my final call. Best amounts are in southwestern Ontario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 We get an additional .25"-.50"+ (all snow) to whatever falls in the first wave this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Looks like 1.50+ possible in west Michigan. Also with the low weaker it allows the second storm to be further NW. End up with 1.75+ here on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 As I said before, I'm not surprised by this. The second wave is already more impressive looking than the first one, and it's even digging on its own... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 End up with 1.75+ here on this run. 1.75-2 through 48 hours along or just north of 94. I think areas along and north of 94 may stay all snow due to the weaker nature of the low. Kinda surprised in the south trends last day or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Total precip from the second wave. michsnowfeak is in the bullseye. http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=NAM&grid=221&model_yyyy=2011&model_mm=02&model_dd=20&model_init_hh=12&fhour=48¶meter=PCPIN&level=18&unit=HR&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Almost 0.80" of rain, and water standing everywhere due to the ground still being frozen. The freezing rain didn't last too long. Up to 35 now. Sure was nice hearing the rumbles of thunder off and on through the night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dissident Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Around 4.5 inches on the ground here in brookings, SD. Sleet mixed in for a time but the precip was so heavy that it didn't matter, still good accumulations. Possible break coming with a second round later? Just a guess. Looks like the void could fill in too. Hope so! It took 2 hours and 30 minutes for those 4.5 inches to accumulate. It was just a dusting when I got to work at 6AM. Left at 815. Edit: did a good measurement instead of a guess, was more like 4.5, not 5-6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Pretty much started as sleet here, then went to freezing rain for an hour. Surface temps jumped above freezing due to latent heat release. 33F and rain. Non-event. Almost no snow. Warm layer is deeper and stronger than progged. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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